10 Question Quiz
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17-12-2015, 04:47 PM (This post was last modified: 17-12-2015 05:42 PM by Full Circle.)
10 Question Quiz
Also from the behavioral finance book, a ten question quiz to show how humans are too confident in their abilities.

I took the test and decided not to answer 0 for the low and a million for the high in each case, I thought that would make the exercise worthless, but that’s me, you can answer any way you like.

Give a high and low estimate for the following 10 questions. Make sure that you are 90% sure that the answers you give will contain within their range the correct answer.

Each question requires a High and Low (two separate numbers) that you feel has a 90% chance of encapsulating the correct answer within that range.

Martin Luther King’s age at death.
Length of the Nile River.
Number of countries in OPEC.
Number of Books in the Old Testament.
Diameter of the Moon.
Weight of an empty Boeing 747 jetliner.
Birth year of Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart.
Gestation period of an Asian elephant (in days).
Air distance from Tokyo to London.
Deepest known point in the oceans.

Normal best 60% right, normal worst 30% right.

I’ll give answers on my next post as suggested. Distances and weights will be in both Metric and English.

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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17-12-2015, 05:02 PM (This post was last modified: 17-12-2015 08:26 PM by Full Circle.)
RE: 10 Question Quiz
My Answers:

My answers
#1. 38-46
#2. 3500-5500 miles
#3. 10-20
#4. 25-35 (wrong)
#5. 10,000-15,000 miles (I was thinking circumference Angry and I still would have been wrong 6,784 mi.)
#6. 80,000-120,000 pounds (way off!)
#7. 1750-1800
#8. 600-800 days
#9. 4500-5500 miles (oops)
#10. 35,000-37,000 feet

6/10

Correct Answers:
#1. 39 years
#2. 4,187 miles or 6,738 km
#3. 13
#4. 39 books
#5. 2,160 miles or 3,476 km
#6. 390,000 pounds or 176,901 kg
#7. 1756
#8. 645 days
#9. 5,959 miles or 9,590 km
#10. 36,198 feet or 11,033 meters (6.85 miles or 11.03 km)

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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17-12-2015, 05:21 PM
RE: 10 Question Quiz
(17-12-2015 04:47 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  Also from the behavioral finance book, a ten question quiz to show how humans are too confident in their abilities.

I took the test and decided not to answer 0 for the low and a million for the high in each case, I thought that would make the exercise worthless, but that’s me, you can answer any way you like.

Give a high and low estimate for the following 10 questions. Make sure that you are 90% sure that the answers you give will contain within their range the correct answer.

Each question requires a High and Low that you feel has a 90% chance of encapsulating the correct answer within that range.

Martin Luther King’s age at death.
Length of the Nile River.
Number of countries in OPEC.
Number of Books in the Old Testament.
Diameter of the Moon.
Weight of an empty Boeing 747 jetliner.
Birth year of Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart.
Gestation period of an Asian elephant (in days).
Air distance from Tokyo to London.
Deepest known point in the oceans.

Normal best 60% right, normal worst 30% right.

I’ll give answers on my next post as suggested. Distances and weights will be in both Metric and English.

Martin Luther King’s age at death. 40 - 60
Length of the Nile River. 300 - 1200 miles
Number of countries in OPEC. 6-18
Number of Books in the Old Testament. 3-20
Diameter of the Moon. 1,000,000 - 180,000,000
Weight of an empty Boeing 747 jetliner. 20,000 - 100,000
Birth year of Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart. 1000 - 2000
Gestation period of an Asian elephant (in days). 300-1000
Air distance from Tokyo to London. 2000 - 10,000
Deepest known point in the oceans. 100 - 200 miles


A lot of guessing going on here. Dodgy

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17-12-2015, 05:28 PM
RE: 10 Question Quiz
(17-12-2015 05:21 PM)Heatheness Wrote:  
(17-12-2015 04:47 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  Also from the behavioral finance book, a ten question quiz to show how humans are too confident in their abilities.

I took the test and decided not to answer 0 for the low and a million for the high in each case, I thought that would make the exercise worthless, but that’s me, you can answer any way you like.

Give a high and low estimate for the following 10 questions. Make sure that you are 90% sure that the answers you give will contain within their range the correct answer.

Each question requires a High and Low that you feel has a 90% chance of encapsulating the correct answer within that range.

Martin Luther King’s age at death.
Length of the Nile River.
Number of countries in OPEC.
Number of Books in the Old Testament.
Diameter of the Moon.
Weight of an empty Boeing 747 jetliner.
Birth year of Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart.
Gestation period of an Asian elephant (in days).
Air distance from Tokyo to London.
Deepest known point in the oceans.

Normal best 60% right, normal worst 30% right.

I’ll give answers on my next post as suggested. Distances and weights will be in both Metric and English.

Martin Luther King’s age at death. 40 - 60
Length of the Nile River. 300 - 1200 miles
Number of countries in OPEC. 6-18
Number of Books in the Old Testament. 3-20
Diameter of the Moon. 1,000,000 - 180,000,000
Weight of an empty Boeing 747 jetliner. 20,000 - 100,000
Birth year of Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart. 1000 - 2000
Gestation period of an Asian elephant (in days). 300-1000
Air distance from Tokyo to London. 2000 - 10,000
Deepest known point in the oceans. 100 - 200 miles


A lot of guessing going on here. Dodgy

5/10

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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17-12-2015, 05:29 PM
RE: 10 Question Quiz
  1. 40-something
  2. 3000+ miles
  3. 10-15
  4. 30-40
  5. ~2100 miles
  6. 250,000± lbs.
  7. 1730's
  8. 600±
  9. 3500-4000 miles
  10. Marianas Trench, 6+ miles



Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
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17-12-2015, 05:37 PM
RE: 10 Question Quiz
(17-12-2015 05:29 PM)Chas Wrote:  
  1. 40-something
  2. 3000+ miles
  3. 10-15
  4. 30-40
  5. ~2100 miles
  6. 250,000± lbs.
  7. 1730's
  8. 600±
  9. 3500-4000 miles
  10. Marianas Trench, 6+ miles



Chas, you need to provide a range (high and low) for all the answers.

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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17-12-2015, 05:40 PM
RE: 10 Question Quiz
(17-12-2015 05:37 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  
(17-12-2015 05:29 PM)Chas Wrote:  
  1. 38 - 45
  2. 3000 - 4000 miles
  3. 10-15
  4. 30-40
    [*2100 - 2160 miles
  5. 250,000 - 350,000 lbs.
  6. 1730 - 1739
  7. 600 - 700
  8. 3500-4000 miles
  9. Marianas Trench, 6 - 7 miles



Chas, you need to provide a range (high and low) for all the answers.

OK.

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
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17-12-2015, 05:43 PM
RE: 10 Question Quiz
Hah, trivial knowledge isn't something I pride myself in. I have no answers for any of these.

I prefer fantasy, but I have to live in reality.
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17-12-2015, 07:49 PM
RE: 10 Question Quiz
(17-12-2015 05:28 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  
(17-12-2015 05:21 PM)Heatheness Wrote:  Martin Luther King’s age at death. 40 - 60
Length of the Nile River. 300 - 1200 miles
Number of countries in OPEC. 6-18
Number of Books in the Old Testament. 3-20
Diameter of the Moon. 1,000,000 - 180,000,000
Weight of an empty Boeing 747 jetliner. 20,000 - 100,000
Birth year of Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart. 1000 - 2000
Gestation period of an Asian elephant (in days). 300-1000
Air distance from Tokyo to London. 2000 - 10,000
Deepest known point in the oceans. 100 - 200 miles


A lot of guessing going on here. Dodgy

5/10

Thx, I WAS trying to ignore the lame stats. TongueSadcryface2

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17-12-2015, 08:18 PM
RE: 10 Question Quiz
(17-12-2015 05:40 PM)Chas Wrote:  
(17-12-2015 05:37 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  Chas, you need to provide a range (high and low) for all the answers.

OK.

Somehow you changed your answers to conform inside a spoiler that was not the original Huh How the hell did you do that? I kept going back to see if you had made any changes and didn’t see them until now.

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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