10 Question Quiz
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17-12-2015, 08:22 PM
RE: 10 Question Quiz
(17-12-2015 05:40 PM)Chas Wrote:  
(17-12-2015 05:37 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  Chas, you need to provide a range (high and low) for all the answers.

OK.

The numbering got a bit screwed up but I think you got 6/10

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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17-12-2015, 08:22 PM
RE: 10 Question Quiz
(17-12-2015 08:18 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  
(17-12-2015 05:40 PM)Chas Wrote:  OK.

Somehow you changed your answers to conform inside a spoiler that was not the original Huh How the hell did you do that? I kept going back to see if you had made any changes and didn’t see them until now.

The Chas works in mysterious ways etc., etc. Tongue

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
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17-12-2015, 08:24 PM
RE: 10 Question Quiz
The correct answers are in my second post if you want to double-check.

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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17-12-2015, 08:24 PM
RE: 10 Question Quiz
(17-12-2015 08:22 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  
(17-12-2015 05:40 PM)Chas Wrote:  OK.

The numbering got a bit screwed up but I think you got 6/10

Looks more like 7 or 7.5 to me. Yes

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
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17-12-2015, 08:32 PM
RE: 10 Question Quiz
(17-12-2015 08:24 PM)Chas Wrote:  
(17-12-2015 08:22 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  The numbering got a bit screwed up but I think you got 6/10

Looks more like 7 or 7.5 to me. Yes

Double check.


Correct Answers
#1. 39 years
#2. 4,187 miles or 6,738 km
#3. 13
#4. 39 books
#5. 2,160 miles or 3,476 km
#6. 390,000 pounds or 176,901 kg
#7. 1756
#8. 645 days
#9. 5,959 miles or 9,590 km
#10. 36,198 feet or 11,033 meters (6.85 miles or 11.03 km)

Chas
38 - 45 ✓
3000 - 4000 miles ✘
10-15 ✓
30-40 ✓
[*2100 - 2160 miles ✓
250,000 - 350,000 lbs. ✘
1730 - 1739 ✘
600 - 700 ✓
3500-4000 miles ✘
Marianas Trench, 6 - 7 miles ✓


“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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17-12-2015, 10:23 PM
RE: 10 Question Quiz
(17-12-2015 08:32 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  
(17-12-2015 08:24 PM)Chas Wrote:  Looks more like 7 or 7.5 to me. Yes

Double check.


Correct Answers
#1. 39 years
#2. 4,187 miles or 6,738 km
#3. 13
#4. 39 books
#5. 2,160 miles or 3,476 km
#6. 390,000 pounds or 176,901 kg
#7. 1756
#8. 645 days
#9. 5,959 miles or 9,590 km
#10. 36,198 feet or 11,033 meters (6.85 miles or 11.03 km)

Chas
38 - 45 ✓
3000 - 4000 miles ✘
10-15 ✓
30-40 ✓
[*2100 - 2160 miles ✓
250,000 - 350,000 lbs. ✘
1730 - 1739 ✘
600 - 700 ✓
3500-4000 miles ✘
Marianas Trench, 6 - 7 miles ✓


I should get half credit for #2. Angry

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
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18-12-2015, 12:00 PM
RE: 10 Question Quiz
5 out of 10.

I hate being mediocre. Sadcryface2

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18-12-2015, 12:23 PM
RE: 10 Question Quiz
(17-12-2015 04:47 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  Also from the behavioral finance book, a ten question quiz to show how humans are too confident in their abilities.

I took the test and decided not to answer 0 for the low and a million for the high in each case, I thought that would make the exercise worthless, but that’s me, you can answer any way you like.

Give a high and low estimate for the following 10 questions. Make sure that you are 90% sure that the answers you give will contain within their range the correct answer.

Each question requires a High and Low (two separate numbers) that you feel has a 90% chance of encapsulating the correct answer within that range.

Martin Luther King’s age at death.
Length of the Nile River.
Number of countries in OPEC.
Number of Books in the Old Testament.
Diameter of the Moon.
Weight of an empty Boeing 747 jetliner.
Birth year of Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart.
Gestation period of an Asian elephant (in days).
Air distance from Tokyo to London.
Deepest known point in the oceans.

Normal best 60% right, normal worst 30% right.

I’ll give answers on my next post as suggested. Distances and weights will be in both Metric and English.
50 ~ 65
700~1300 miles
4~11
8~15
1100~2300 miles
Depends on model, so 270,000~450,000 lbs
1630~1710
340~400
7000~9000 miles
Challenger deep, 34,000~36,000 feet
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18-12-2015, 03:35 PM
RE: 10 Question Quiz
(17-12-2015 04:47 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  Each question requires a High and Low (two separate numbers) that you feel has a 90% chance of encapsulating the correct answer within that range.

Martin Luther King’s age at death.
Length of the Nile River.
Number of countries in OPEC.
Number of Books in the Old Testament.
Diameter of the Moon.
Weight of an empty Boeing 747 jetliner.
Birth year of Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart.
Gestation period of an Asian elephant (in days).
Air distance from Tokyo to London.
Deepest known point in the oceans.

MLK: 40-50
Nile: 800-1,000 miles
OPEC: 9-13
OT: 25-30
Moon: 800-1,200 miles
747: 250,000-350,000 pounds
Mozart: 1700-1800
Elephant: 300-400 days
Tokyo-London: 8,000-10,000 miles
Ocean depth: 36,000-37,000

God does not work in mysterious ways — he works in ways that are indistinguishable from his non-existence.
Jesus had a pretty rough weekend for your sins.
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18-12-2015, 04:13 PM (This post was last modified: 18-12-2015 04:16 PM by cjlr.)
RE: 10 Question Quiz
Aren't those just pointless trivia? On the other hand, I do like pointless trivia. But I suppose the point is to be more illustrative of what people do (or don't) understand about confidence intervals rather than just the pointless trivia part, though. An interesting idea.
(in physics we are encouraged to practice so-called 'order of magnitude' calculations for really rough working estimates)

So -

Martin Luther King’s age at death:
He was an activist almost his whole adult life, but I can't recall hearing anything about him earlier than the 1950s. So, he must have been fairly young by '68 when he was killed. I'd give 40-50 for a two-thirds interval, but 90%? Answer: 35-55.

Length of the Nile River:
Answer: 5000-8000 km. I want to say 6xxxx but I might be misremembering and that's really the Amazon, so to be in that 90% confidence interval, better widen the range.

Number of countries in OPEC:
There just plain aren't that many gulf states, and there are only a handful of other OPEC members. 5-20 is pretty much guaranteed to cover it. Answer: 5-20.

Number of Books in the Old Testament:
This actually depends on whose canon you're using - Protestant, Catholic, Orthodox, Coptic, Ethiopian... But there's 60-odd plus in any complete Bible and about 3/4 by word/page count of that is Old Testament. Answer: 40-60.
(wait - are we counting the Tanakh? I seem to recall the Jews combining a lot of the old testament books - all the 12 minor prophets are one book for them; I'll assume the question was just referring to Christian canon though)

Diameter of the Moon:
The Earth has a radius of 6x10^6 metres (to one significant digit), that I know for an absolute fact. The moon is about a quarter the diameter, so... Answer: 2.5-3.5 x 10^6 metres.

Weight of an empty Boeing 747 jetliner.
I have literally no idea. To be within that 90% confidence interval is going to take a damn big range. A car weighs a couple tonnes and a jetliner is obviously dozens to hundreds of cars. Answer: 50-500 tonnes?

Birth year of Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart:
I don't remember my classical music history well enough to pin this one down much either. He died young and well before 1800, that's all I can remember offhand. Answer: 1740-1770.

Gestation period of an Asian elephant (in days):
I'm pretty sure elephant pregnancies last more than a year. Whales can be up to two years, but I'd imagine it's less than that? Answer: 400-500 days.

Air distance from Tokyo to London:
Wouldn't that depend on the route taken? I guess we're supposed to take that as great circle route. Average latitude is about 45 north (give or take), so some trivial maths (using the radius from earlier and assuming Earth is spherical) then gives ~0.5*pi*r/sqrt(2) for the distance, but that's more of the lower bound than the centre of the range because the change in latitude adds quite a bit. Answer: 6-10 x 10^6 metres.

Deepest known point in the oceans:
The Marianas trench. Confidence 100%! But actually all I can remember is that I think it's deeper than Everest is tall (where Everest is 9km above sea level). Answer: 8-12 kilometres below sea level.

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