11th Hour Curve Reversal Could be Promising
Post Reply
 
Thread Rating:
  • 0 Votes - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
07-11-2016, 12:05 PM
11th Hour Curve Reversal Could be Promising
Those of us who check fivethirtyeight's projection model every fifteen seconds (the normal rate for a well balanced mind - obsessive would be about every fifteen milliseconds) can take some heart in a reversal of the curve in the last 12 hours wherein Clinton has gained (and Trump lost) about 3 points of outcome likelihood.

This late reversal so close to the finish seems significant in that the final moments of an electoral contest generally tighten rather than diverge - and the past few days saw strong convergence especially after the FBI announced the email case would be re-opened. But the magnitude of this abrupt reversal seems to transcend noise - the reversal has held consistent through about a dozen revisions as new polls have been incorporated.

I hope this is more than just a mirage on a bleak statistical landscape.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
07-11-2016, 12:38 PM (This post was last modified: 07-11-2016 12:43 PM by Lord Dark Helmet.)
RE: 11th Hour Curve Reversal Could be Promising
During the same time period, there has been a big swing in the senate, with the republicans now leading with a 54% chance. They were at 45% yesterday. It's raised 3% in the last hour.

That's bad news for Hillary for two reasons. Either people want to stop her agenda so they're voting to keep her in check. Or Trump could benefit from straight ticket voters. As I've been saying, turnout is key.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
[Image: 25397spaceballs.gif]
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply
Forum Jump: