A political prediction.
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02-05-2013, 09:06 PM (This post was last modified: 02-05-2013 09:14 PM by Carlo_The_Bugsmasher_Driver.)
A political prediction.
A political prediction.

It's difficult to make high probability calls on things in politics as it is just so fluid.

But on their current trajectory, I prophesize the death of the social conservative movement by 2020.

In 2014, the GOP will suffer a major political loss and the Senate and House will go largely blue.

It is going to do so because the GOP will be seen as doing everything in its power to ensure gridlock in Washington, out of pure spite for Obama. That and its opposition to universal background checks on guns.

It won't lose everywhere. It will still hang on strong with the southern Dixiecrats. But you can forget about the swing states. They're going blue as are a few other traditionally conservative states.

The reaction of the social conservatives will be to become even more desperate, feral, schizophrenic and crazy, driving people further and further away from them. They will also attempt to further hijack the GOP to use its big money contributors to further their political gains.

This, in concert with no realistic GOP candidates, a far more moderate American public, and the growth plus further disenfranchisement of major voting blocks like blacks, hispanics, the LGBT community and women, the GOP will lose its third presidential election in a row in 2016.

This will bring about major changes to the Republican Party. Like Alec Baldwin's 'Coffee is for Closers' speech in the film Glengarry Glen Ross, the GOP isn't delivering and the moneyed interests who fund it are gonna demand heads roll for it.

The religious right will make one final bid to extort and hijack the GOP but it will fall flat on its face. The big money families who support the GOP will be thoroughly fed up with their shit and, out of concern for the party political future, will flatly put down this brazen bid for control of the party's fate. They will refuse to fund social conservative campaigns and with this the Tea Party will die an ignoble death. It may splinter the GOP, producing a more moderate GOP and a more radical fundamentalist one which will fold into the likes of the Constitution party. The right wing crazies may attempt to fund their own party but this will be quickly put down by their painful lack of cash and lack of personnel (see Bill Maher's 'Shitkicker Paradox') and quietly slink away. Fox News will become a lot more moderate with the likes of Hannity either fired or forced to reinvent himself with a more moderate personae (Murdoch and Ales are in the biz to make a buck and now there's no money in entertaining conservative kooks anymore). A few remaining Dixiecrats will continue to make stupid tirades on the floor of the Senate but these will slowly fade and the reputation of the social conservative movement is quietly hawked for a tank of gas, sometime in 2020.

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02-05-2013, 09:09 PM
RE: A political prediction.
(02-05-2013 09:06 PM)Carlo_The_Bugsmasher_Driver Wrote:  A political prediction.

It's difficult to make high probability calls on things in politics as it is just so fluid.

But on their current trajectory, I prophesize the death of the social conservative movement.

In 2014, the GOP will suffer a major political loss and the Senate and House will go largely blue.

It is going to do so because the GOP will be seen as doing everything in its power to ensure gridlock in Washington, out of pure spite for Obama. That and its opposition to universal background checks on guns.

It won't lose everywhere. It will still hang on strong with the southern Dixiecrats. But you can forget about the swing states. They're going blue as are a few other traditionally conservative states.

The reaction of the social conservatives will be to become even more desperate, feral, schizophrenic and crazy, driving people further and further away from them. They will also attempt to further hijack the GOP to use its big money contributors to further their political gains.

This, in concert with no realistic GOP candidates, a far more moderate American public, and the growth plus further disenfranchisement of major voting blocks like blacks, hispanics, the LGBT community and women, the GOP will lose its third presidential election in a row in 2016.

This will bring about major changes to the Republican Party. Like Alec Baldwin's 'Coffee is for Closers' speech in the film Glengarry Glen Ross, the GOP isn't delivering and the moneyed interests who fund it are gonna demand heads roll for it.

The religious right will make one final bid to extort and hijack the GOP but it will fall flat on its face. The big money families who support the GOP will be thoroughly fed up with their shit and, out of concern for the party political future, will flatly put down this brazen bid for control of the party's fate. They will refuse to fund social conservative campaigns and with this the Tea Party will die an ignoble death. It may splinter the GOP, producing a more moderate GOP and a more radical fundamentalist one which will fold into the likes of the Constitution party. The right wing crazies may attempt to fund their own party but this will be quickly put down by their painful lack of cash and lack of personnel (see Bill Maher's 'Shitkicker Paradox') and quietly slink away. Fox News will become a lot more moderate with the likes of Hannity either fired or forced to reinvent himself with a more moderate personae (Murdoch and Ales are in the biz to make a buck and now there's no money in entertaining conservative kooks anymore). A few remaining Dixiecrats will continue to make stupid tirades on the floor of the Senate but these will slowly fade and the reputation of the social conservative movement is quietly hawked for a tank of gas, sometime in 2020.


I'd be happy to see things go that general direction.

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02-05-2013, 09:14 PM
RE: A political prediction.
(02-05-2013 09:06 PM)Carlo_The_Bugsmasher_Driver Wrote:  A political prediction.

It's difficult to make high probability calls on things in politics as it is just so fluid.

But on their current trajectory, I prophesize the death of the social conservative movement.

In 2014, the GOP will suffer a major political loss and the Senate and House will go largely blue.

It is going to do so because the GOP will be seen as doing everything in its power to ensure gridlock in Washington, out of pure spite for Obama. That and its opposition to universal background checks on guns.

It won't lose everywhere. It will still hang on strong with the southern Dixiecrats. But you can forget about the swing states. They're going blue as are a few other traditionally conservative states.

The reaction of the social conservatives will be to become even more desperate, feral, schizophrenic and crazy, driving people further and further away from them. They will also attempt to further hijack the GOP to use its big money contributors to further their political gains.

This, in concert with no realistic GOP candidates, a far more moderate American public, and the growth plus further disenfranchisement of major voting blocks like blacks, hispanics, the LGBT community and women, the GOP will lose its third presidential election in a row in 2016.

This will bring about major changes to the Republican Party. Like Alec Baldwin's 'Coffee is for Closers' speech in the film Glengarry Glen Ross, the GOP isn't delivering and the moneyed interests who fund it are gonna demand heads roll for it.

The religious right will make one final bid to extort and hijack the GOP but it will fall flat on its face. The big money families who support the GOP will be thoroughly fed up with their shit and, out of concern for the party political future, will flatly put down this brazen bid for control of the party's fate. They will refuse to fund social conservative campaigns and with this the Tea Party will die an ignoble death. It may splinter the GOP, producing a more moderate GOP and a more radical fundamentalist one which will fold into the likes of the Constitution party. The right wing crazies may attempt to fund their own party but this will be quickly put down by their painful lack of cash and lack of personnel (see Bill Maher's 'Shitkicker Paradox') and quietly slink away. Fox News will become a lot more moderate with the likes of Hannity either fired or forced to reinvent himself with a more moderate personae (Murdoch and Ales are in the biz to make a buck and now there's no money in entertaining conservative kooks anymore). A few remaining Dixiecrats will continue to make stupid tirades on the floor of the Senate but these will slowly fade and the reputation of the social conservative movement is quietly hawked for a tank of gas, sometime in 2020.

That was well thought out, I can see all of that happening. But politics, as you say, are fluid. So much can happen between now and 2016.

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02-05-2013, 09:15 PM
RE: A political prediction.
Now can you predict the elections over here?

I would like to know ahead of time which of the two scumbag parties will be in charge.

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02-05-2013, 09:54 PM
RE: A political prediction.
Probably so. And the murderous empire will still reign supreme until such time as the welfare state and the military industrial complex force the hands of the US empire's financiers and they call in the debt.

Once the empire begins its final fall, the largely democratic group of rulers will cut off social security, medicare, medicaid and all other welfare programs just in time to scrape the last remaining wealth from the carcass of the empire.

And with any luck, the violence, bigotry and hypocrisy that has become the hallmark of the US empire will be forever relegated to humanity's deep, dark, sinful past.

The beginning of wisdom is to call things by their right names. - Chinese Proverb
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02-05-2013, 10:09 PM
RE: A political prediction.
So the GOP will implode (hooray!) and America will politically dissolve into the lesser of two evils.

I fail to see any (other than short term) optimism in the situation. It is a step in the right direction, I guess.

But now I have come to believe that the whole world is an enigma, a harmless enigma that is made terrible by our own mad attempt to interpret it as though it had an underlying truth.

~ Umberto Eco
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02-05-2013, 10:32 PM
RE: A political prediction.
Nothing will change, not really. Not until our economy implodes at least.

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03-05-2013, 08:08 AM
RE: A political prediction.
(02-05-2013 09:54 PM)bbeljefe Wrote:  Probably so. And the murderous empire will still reign supreme until such time as the welfare state and the military industrial complex force the hands of the US empire's financiers and they call in the debt.

Once the empire begins its final fall, the largely democratic group of rulers will cut off social security, medicare, medicaid and all other welfare programs just in time to scrape the last remaining wealth from the carcass of the empire.

And with any luck, the violence, bigotry and hypocrisy that has become the hallmark of the US empire will be forever relegated to humanity's deep, dark, sinful past.

I swear you have not taken any history classes since high school.

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03-05-2013, 09:12 AM
RE: A political prediction.
(03-05-2013 08:08 AM)Logica Humano Wrote:  
(02-05-2013 09:54 PM)bbeljefe Wrote:  Probably so. And the murderous empire will still reign supreme until such time as the welfare state and the military industrial complex force the hands of the US empire's financiers and they call in the debt.

Once the empire begins its final fall, the largely democratic group of rulers will cut off social security, medicare, medicaid and all other welfare programs just in time to scrape the last remaining wealth from the carcass of the empire.

And with any luck, the violence, bigotry and hypocrisy that has become the hallmark of the US empire will be forever relegated to humanity's deep, dark, sinful past.

I swear you have not taken any history classes since high school.

You think high school history classes are accurate and complete lessons in history?

Now I understand what the problem is. Wink

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03-05-2013, 09:34 AM
RE: A political prediction.
While I don't really disagree and welcome the idea....The biggest problem will be what the other side accomplishes with that power. If they do something completely inane...Then there will be a backlash.

I do wonder if years from now tho, we'll be thanking the tea party for driving the final nail in the conservative coffin?

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