A political prediction.
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05-05-2013, 12:42 PM (This post was last modified: 05-05-2013 07:33 PM by Carlo_The_Bugsmasher_Driver.)
RE: A political prediction.
This is the reason social conservatism will die.





At their core, they, the White Christians, expect the country to be tailored solely to them, their needs, their philosophy, their religion. They are absolutely intolerant of any other politics, ideology, race, or religion and expect them to sit quietly in she shadows, silent, and subsiding on whatever scraps are available for them.

All scientific endeavors to understand the world must meet the approval of their biblical interpretation. If not, they'll do whatever they can to crush it.

This is a completely non functioning way to operate in a global Information Age. Attempting force the entire world and every American citizen to conform to this Iron Maiden of nationalism, bigotry, prejudice, and intolerance in order to stroke the egos of a small group of stupid, ignorant assholes who throw screaming tantrums and threaten violence and revolution when they don't get their way is unacceptable.

"IN THRUST WE TRUST"

"We were conservative Jews and that meant we obeyed God's Commandments until His rules became a royal pain in the ass."

- Joel Chastnoff, The 188th Crybaby Brigade
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05-05-2013, 10:02 PM
RE: A political prediction.
(04-05-2013 08:02 AM)Chas Wrote:  
(04-05-2013 05:06 AM)smidgen Wrote:  Sounds like divide and conquer to me. Just what this administration wants. For us to tear each other apart so they don't have to. To have any one party in control sounds a whole lot like communism to me. To tell people what they should believe and how they should live sounds like the same. Just sayin.

Both the left and the right want to tell people how they should live.

One side is fascist, the other socialist, both are totalitarian in their goals.

The trick is to find the middle ground but that is seen as weakness by both extremes and therefore a centrist candidate is probably unelectable. Because of this I think we will continue to have pendulum swings that are even more extreme in response to whoever the current office holder may be. I would welcome a third party with a centrist platform with leanings of social liberalism and economic conservatism.

“I suppose our capacity for self-delusion is boundless."
― John Steinbeck, Travels with Charley: In Search of America
“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man's reasoning powers are not above the monkey's." - Mark Twain in Eruption
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05-05-2013, 11:00 PM
RE: A political prediction.
How will moderate GOP candidates start taking over when people who vote for these people don't turn out in primary elections? The party at large may want to jettison the Tea Party but I don't see the primary voters agreeing with that sentiment. These are people who don't care if their politicians do anything once they get elected or not, just want them to pound home their Ayn Rand rhetoric, actually accomplishing anything? Pfft.

It isn't as if Democrats are that much better anyway, it's just in comparison to people like Michelle Bachmann that they look good.

"Men will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest" - Denis Diderot

"Philosophy is questions that may never be answered, religion is answers that may never be questioned"
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05-05-2013, 11:24 PM
RE: A political prediction.
(05-05-2013 11:00 PM)Atheist in Westeros Wrote:  How will moderate GOP candidates start taking over when people who vote for these people don't turn out in primary elections? The party at large may want to jettison the Tea Party but I don't see the primary voters agreeing with that sentiment. These are people who don't care if their politicians do anything once they get elected or not, just want them to pound home their Ayn Rand rhetoric, actually accomplishing anything? Pfft.

It isn't as if Democrats are that much better anyway, it's just in comparison to people like Michelle Bachmann that they look good.

I would hope that this is where a new wind of change might set in. We need a good third, better yet even fourth party platform to show up and start talking sense. The biggest hurdle that this scenario currently faces is that almost all elected officials at this point are partisan to the two reigning parties. We need some influence to come into the discussion from somewhere to speak to the masses who are fed up with our current congress but have no viable choice to turn to.

There needs to be some kind of incentive for the partisan rhetoric to change, but people buy into the media so much that any dissension is easily swept under the rug as foolishness.

"It's a most distressing affliction to have a sentimental heart and a skeptical mind.”
― نجيب محفوظ, Sugar Street
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06-05-2013, 08:58 AM (This post was last modified: 06-05-2013 09:22 AM by DeepThought.)
RE: A political prediction.
(02-05-2013 09:15 PM)Free Thought Wrote:  Now can you predict the elections over here?

I would like to know ahead of time which of the two scumbag parties will be in charge.

Australia is easy. Labor will lose next election by a landslide (short of some sort of war or national emergency happening where Gillard ends up looking like a hero.)

Mr Rabbit will take the reigns... He will immediately reverse everything the labor party did while in power. Then he will frantically slash funding in every area possible (mostly education and healthcare) and sell off key public infrastructure at a loss, then tell the public "look, I created a budget surplus."

Private companies will run said infrastructure into the ground while milking it for what it's worth, forcing the government to buy it back after the next election and pay to maintain it properly.

Mr Rabbit is a politician who is incapable of coming up with any ideas himself, but we all know any ideas others come up with MUST BE WRONG. Especially if they came from the opposition.

So... The national broadband network project will be halted less than half way through the rollout, essentially crippling it or severely watering it down.

I think both political parties suck donkey dick - but for different reasons, and I'm emotionally invested in the National Broadband Network. I want to see that come to fruition. I doubt I will.

Fuck you Tony Abbot. May you die choking on your own dick.

“Forget Jesus, the stars died so you could be born.” - Lawrence M. Krauss
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09-05-2013, 01:24 PM
RE: A political prediction.
(05-05-2013 11:24 PM)evenheathen Wrote:  
(05-05-2013 11:00 PM)Atheist in Westeros Wrote:  How will moderate GOP candidates start taking over when people who vote for these people don't turn out in primary elections? The party at large may want to jettison the Tea Party but I don't see the primary voters agreeing with that sentiment. These are people who don't care if their politicians do anything once they get elected or not, just want them to pound home their Ayn Rand rhetoric, actually accomplishing anything? Pfft.

It isn't as if Democrats are that much better anyway, it's just in comparison to people like Michelle Bachmann that they look good.

I would hope that this is where a new wind of change might set in. We need a good third, better yet even fourth party platform to show up and start talking sense. The biggest hurdle that this scenario currently faces is that almost all elected officials at this point are partisan to the two reigning parties. We need some influence to come into the discussion from somewhere to speak to the masses who are fed up with our current congress but have no viable choice to turn to.

There needs to be some kind of incentive for the partisan rhetoric to change, but people buy into the media so much that any dissension is easily swept under the rug as foolishness.

We may be witnessing the beginning of this. If advertising follows public trends, this is bad, bad, BAD news for the social conservative movement!




"IN THRUST WE TRUST"

"We were conservative Jews and that meant we obeyed God's Commandments until His rules became a royal pain in the ass."

- Joel Chastnoff, The 188th Crybaby Brigade
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09-05-2013, 09:56 PM
RE: A political prediction.
Your political predictions in the near term are wishful thinking at best. I too would prefer the social conservatives to lose influence in the GOP, but when half this country still disbelieves the Theory of Evolution, it is naive to think the social conservatives go away in just one decade.

On the political analysis side, the Dems are not in a strong position this coming midterm election. At the state level, with the overwhelming majority of statehouses and governorships being GOP dominated during the previous census and still to this day, House districts are set up to protect the GOP. You greatly underestimate the importance of the dominance of the GOP at the state level and the effect that has in a mid term election.

My prediction is that the GOP will dominate the 2014 midterms. Social conservatives, while still a force in the GOP , have already seen their peak influence. It will take a long time, at least a generation and maybe two, for the social cons to be in the back seat in the GOP.

The GOP will continue to be strong on the state level. Social conservative states will allow these bastions of religious right to hang on for a long time past the time their prime. The social conservatives with their strength at the state level in certain states will result in weakness at the national level for the GOP.

The dynamic that I think is setting up is not too dissimilar to the dynamic in the later part of the 1900s (before the Gingrich Speakership) where one party dominates the House and the other dominates the presidency. In that era, it was the Dems who dominated the House and the GOP who dominated the presidency.

As is always the case, it will depend on the particular individual candidates, but I think the GOP will continue to struggle finding a good presidential candidate for 2016. The social conservatives with their strength in the South are in a position to veto anyone that doesn't toe the social con line. When their veto attempts fail (e.g. McCain), they will throw a hissy fit and lose the election by staying home in droves.
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