Absence of evidence
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22-08-2015, 10:20 AM
RE: Absence of evidence
(22-08-2015 10:19 AM)Matt Finney Wrote:  
(22-08-2015 10:17 AM)Chas Wrote:  Generally, when there is no evidence one cannot conclude much. However, when the absence of evidence that should be there if the assertion were true is evidence that the assertion is likely not true.

By "likely" do you mean "most of the time"?

likely = high probability

unlikely = low probability

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22-08-2015, 10:21 AM
RE: Absence of evidence
(22-08-2015 10:20 AM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  
(22-08-2015 10:19 AM)Matt Finney Wrote:  By "likely" do you mean "most of the time"?

likely = high probability

unlikely = low probability

And in this case, by probability we are talking about frequency of occurance?
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22-08-2015, 10:23 AM
RE: Absence of evidence
(22-08-2015 10:21 AM)Matt Finney Wrote:  
(22-08-2015 10:20 AM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  likely = high probability

unlikely = low probability

And in this case, by probability we are talking about frequency of occurance?

No, likelihood of individual claims

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22-08-2015, 10:28 AM
RE: Absence of evidence
(22-08-2015 10:17 AM)Matt Finney Wrote:  
(22-08-2015 10:13 AM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  "...except I don't think we can conclude that aliens don't exist."

Then you don't understand burden of proof. The only logical conclusion until the burden of proof is met, is nonexistence/non-ocurrence.

If I hypothesize that a virus killed off the dinosaurs, we can easily test for what happened. With no evidence to support my hypothesis of a virus killing the dinosaurs, we should conclude that it is not possible (through a complete and utter lack of support and evidence) that the virus killed the dinosaurs. Even though it is not implausible.

Now, look at the same example, but substitute aliens.

Unless we know what did kill the dinosaurs, I see no reason to rule anything out.

By your logic, it is perfectly reasonable to assert that Intelligent Design is true and Evolution is a conspiracy. There is precisely the same amount of evidence for each of these claims, none. But you assume they remain plausible in spite of the evidence in favor of evolution and the failed tests of ID.

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22-08-2015, 10:30 AM
RE: Absence of evidence
(22-08-2015 10:19 AM)Matt Finney Wrote:  
(22-08-2015 10:17 AM)Chas Wrote:  Generally, when there is no evidence one cannot conclude much. However, when the absence of evidence that should be there if the assertion were true is evidence that the assertion is likely not true.

By "likely" do you mean "most of the time"?

Why would I mean that? That makes no sense.

"Likely not true" means there is a very low probability that it is true.

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
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22-08-2015, 10:33 AM
RE: Absence of evidence
(22-08-2015 10:21 AM)Matt Finney Wrote:  
(22-08-2015 10:20 AM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  likely = high probability

unlikely = low probability

And in this case, by probability we are talking about frequency of occurance?

No - are you trying to misunderstand? Consider

It means every claim where there is an absence of evidence that should be there were the claim true has a high probability of being false.

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
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22-08-2015, 11:28 AM
RE: Absence of evidence
(22-08-2015 10:33 AM)Chas Wrote:  
(22-08-2015 10:21 AM)Matt Finney Wrote:  And in this case, by probability we are talking about frequency of occurance?

No - are you trying to misunderstand? Consider

It means every claim where there is an absence of evidence that should be there were the claim true has a high probability of being false.

I think "probability" is a poor and misleading word choice, but let's not get hung up on that.

What evidence should be there in the case of a deistic god?
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22-08-2015, 11:36 AM
RE: Absence of evidence
(22-08-2015 09:12 AM)Matt Finney Wrote:  
(22-08-2015 08:53 AM)Free Wrote:  What's the point of all your lies here? What do you hope to gain?

I'm trying to help you all learn to think.

We do not need the help of someone who demonstrates theistic characteristics. We understand how your mind works because we see it daily from other theists.

Quote:
(22-08-2015 08:53 AM)Free Wrote:  When someone makes a claim, it can mean unproven, or it can also mean false. A claim is normally regarded as unproven when there is some evidence to support it, but not enough to prove it.

For people who have no comprehension of scientific method, yes. For the rest of us.

claim proven = true

claim disproved = false

claim unproven = ?

You think you can instruct us in regards to the scientific method? Do you not understand what unproven means? It means this:

Unproven:
adjective
1.
not established as true by evidence or demonstration: unproven allegations.

Do you not understand the definition? It clearly shows that unproven means that the claim was not established by the evidence or any demonstration. In other words, the evidence was too weak to establish truth. Now here is "disproven."

Disproven

Variant of disprove
transitive verb : disproved, disproved or disproven, disproving
to prove to be false or in error; refute; confute

You just keep getting "disproven" as over the place, don't you?
(22-08-2015 08:53 AM)Free Wrote:  A claim is rightfully considered false when there is absolutely no evidence whatsoever to support it.

We have no evidence of alien spacecraft, but this doesn't make the proposition false, only unproven.[/quote]

No, no evidence means disproven, which means the claim was false. Some evidence, considered weak, will mean unproven.

Quote:
(22-08-2015 08:53 AM)Free Wrote:  If this wasn't the standard to gauge false claims, then anything anyone could say or imagine would possibly be true.

No, if we don't know whether or not something exists, then we don't know that it is possible. We wouldn't know whether or not it is possible.

For something to be possible, some evidence must be supplied. It will remain not possible until otherwise proven to be possible.

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22-08-2015, 11:42 AM
RE: Absence of evidence
(22-08-2015 11:36 AM)Free Wrote:  For something to be possible, some evidence must be supplied. It will remain not possible until otherwise proven to be possible.

So, if we don't know that it's possible, then this lack of knowledge alone gives us the knowledge that it is impossible?

Am I really the only one who see a problem here?HuhHuhHuh
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22-08-2015, 11:45 AM
Absence of evidence
(22-08-2015 11:28 AM)Matt Finney Wrote:  
(22-08-2015 10:33 AM)Chas Wrote:  No - are you trying to misunderstand? Consider

It means every claim where there is an absence of evidence that should be there were the claim true has a high probability of being false.

I think "probability" is a poor and misleading word choice, but let's not get hung up on that.

What evidence should be there in the case of a deistic god?

It isn't poor or misleading, you don't understand probability.

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