Alt right protests
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12-08-2017, 11:43 PM
RE: Alt right protests
(12-08-2017 08:45 PM)ImFred Wrote:  
Quote:I sometimes suspect that he's the guy who bashed in my transgender daughters car window not long after the election. I have no evidence of this though

I'm sorry you and your daughter had to experience something like that.

Also, trust your gut. There's millions of years of evolution behind intuition. Keep your eye on that flag waving piece of shit.

Thanks. I will.

Shakespeare's Comedy of Errors.... on Donald J. Trump:

He is deformed, crooked, old, and sere,
Ill-fac’d, worse bodied, shapeless every where;
Vicious, ungentle, foolish, blunt, unkind,
Stigmatical in making, worse in mind.
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12-08-2017, 11:52 PM
RE: Alt right protests
(12-08-2017 11:43 PM)dancefortwo Wrote:  
(12-08-2017 08:45 PM)ImFred Wrote:  I'm sorry you and your daughter had to experience something like that.

Also, trust your gut. There's millions of years of evolution behind intuition. Keep your eye on that flag waving piece of shit.

Thanks. I will.

Monty Hall presents you with a deal. Behind one of the doors is a new car, behind the other 2 are dead puppies and ponies. You choose door #1. Monty, devious bastard that he is, shows you that behind door #3 there are dead ponies. He then asks you whether you want to switch your choice to door #2 or stick with your gut and door #1. What do you do and why? That's when I lost faith in my gut and put my faith in Bayes.

#sigh
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13-08-2017, 12:28 AM
RE: Alt right protests
(12-08-2017 11:52 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  ... put my faith in Bayes ...

Unnecessary in that scenario - straight up math works. Always switch. Switching gives you 67% of winning. Here's why. The odds are 67% you picked a garbage door first. Monty then opens the other garbage door. The only door not yet involved is the prize door, which you didn't pick. Switch to it and win. The odds are only 33% you picked the prize door first, thus only 33% that switching causes you to lose.

If you don't switch, your odds of winning are only the 33% of your first pick. Hence, always switch. Always.

Sorry for the interruption - now back to the topic.
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13-08-2017, 12:54 AM
RE: Alt right protests
(13-08-2017 12:28 AM)Airportkid Wrote:  
(12-08-2017 11:52 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  ... put my faith in Bayes ...

Unnecessary in that scenario - straight up math works. Always switch. Switching gives you 67% of winning. Here's why. The odds are 67% you picked a garbage door first. Monty then opens the other garbage door. The only door not yet involved is the prize door, which you didn't pick. Switch to it and win. The odds are only 33% you picked the prize door first, thus only 33% that switching causes you to lose.

If you don't switch, your odds of winning are only the 33% of your first pick. Hence, always switch. Always.

Sorry for the interruption - now back to the topic.

I don't really trust Bayes either, unless you got proper priors. Smile

#sigh
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13-08-2017, 01:24 AM
RE: Alt right protests
(13-08-2017 12:28 AM)Airportkid Wrote:  
(12-08-2017 11:52 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  ... put my faith in Bayes ...

Unnecessary in that scenario - straight up math works. Always switch. Switching gives you 67% of winning. Here's why. The odds are 67% you picked a garbage door first. Monty then opens the other garbage door. The only door not yet involved is the prize door, which you didn't pick. Switch to it and win. The odds are only 33% you picked the prize door first, thus only 33% that switching causes you to lose.

If you don't switch, your odds of winning are only the 33% of your first pick. Hence, always switch. Always.

Sorry for the interruption - now back to the topic.

If I pick any door first, and Monty opens one of the others, at this stage don't I have exactly the information that one of the doors has a prize, and one of the doors doesn't? I would have thought that the chance was 50/50. I mean, your explanation makes some kind of sense, but at the same time it feels very wrong.

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If you're perfect -- Alanis Morissette
(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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13-08-2017, 01:30 AM (This post was last modified: 13-08-2017 02:06 AM by GirlyMan.)
RE: Alt right protests
(13-08-2017 01:24 AM)morondog Wrote:  
(13-08-2017 12:28 AM)Airportkid Wrote:  Unnecessary in that scenario - straight up math works. Always switch. Switching gives you 67% of winning. Here's why. The odds are 67% you picked a garbage door first. Monty then opens the other garbage door. The only door not yet involved is the prize door, which you didn't pick. Switch to it and win. The odds are only 33% you picked the prize door first, thus only 33% that switching causes you to lose.

If you don't switch, your odds of winning are only the 33% of your first pick. Hence, always switch. Always.

Sorry for the interruption - now back to the topic.

If I pick any door first, and Monty opens one of the others, at this stage don't I have exactly the information that one of the doors has a prize, and one of the doors doesn't? I would have thought that the chance was 50/50. I mean, your explanation makes some kind of sense, but at the same time it feels very wrong.

YOU SEE! YOU SEE! THAT'S WHAT I"M SAYING! Big Grin No. That's wrong. No Your gut is failing to consider prior information properly. In particular, the fact the demon Marty will never open the door that has the car behind it. The KidInTheAirport explained it properly, but I think I can grok it even simpler. Marty only has 2 doors to choose from, dead puppies or ponies, he will never show you the door with car and say "Would you like to switch your door?" You have 3. By making your choice, you have either narrowed his options or you haven't. There is a 1 in three chance you have narrowed his options by choosing the car on your first guess, there is a 2 in 3 chance you haven't. Always switch. Damn gut.

#sigh
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13-08-2017, 02:13 AM
RE: Alt right protests
(12-08-2017 10:24 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  
(12-08-2017 02:40 PM)ELK12695 Wrote:  This is very simple. Let them protest. Freedom of speech counts for popular and unpopular speech.

It is rarely simple. If it were simply a matter of protesting that would be a relatively simple matter of freedom of speech. It is not.

This began with threats of violence followed by fools packing weapons to back those threats. That isn't simple protest, that's inciting a riot. That is the textbook definition of unlawful assembly.

It's still simple to me. If you bring along and brandish weapons, daring others to attack you, you are no longer peacefully protesting.

At that point, the police no longer has to protect you from others, but protect others from you. They then break them up, preferably with words; not with batons and tear gas. Don't throw punches before they do (unless they aim a gun at you, that's called suicide by cop).

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13-08-2017, 02:24 AM
RE: Alt right protests
These people are trying to kill democracy by poisonning it while hiding under its principles to avoid retaliation. I find that disgusting and threatening.

Freedom is servitude to justice and intellectual honesty.
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13-08-2017, 02:52 AM
RE: Alt right protests
(13-08-2017 02:24 AM)epronovost Wrote:  These people are trying to kill democracy by poisonning it while hiding under its principles to avoid retaliation. I find that disgusting and threatening.

I just call it democracy. It's specifically designed to let people you potentionally dislike speak out. You are protected under the same laws; use it, make a counter protest.

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13-08-2017, 04:49 AM
RE: Alt right protests
(13-08-2017 02:52 AM)ELK12695 Wrote:  
(13-08-2017 02:24 AM)epronovost Wrote:  These people are trying to kill democracy by poisonning it while hiding under its principles to avoid retaliation. I find that disgusting and threatening.

I just call it democracy. It's specifically designed to let people you potentionally dislike speak out. You are protected under the same laws; use it, make a counter protest.

To put it in context, this is the alt-right in Finland.

[Image: GhXM2KF.jpg]

Google translate tells me the sign says, "Goodbye Finland, concluded an unnecessary work defending big country." Oh, and your hockey team wants your neo-Nazi fascists to stop wearing the Natonal jerseys.

#sigh
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