America you beauty! Round of applause to you good sirs and siresses.
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19-08-2016, 08:45 AM
RE: America you beauty! Round of applause to you good sirs and siresses.
(19-08-2016 07:13 AM)DLJ Wrote:  So, you're saying that there is a correlation between increased incarceration and reduction in crime.

Well, erm, Consider I guess the system is working, then.

Angel

Please tell me you weren't seriously positing a "correlation is causation" argument.

The only way for the mass incarceration program to reduce crime in the manner you're speaking would be for there to be a fixed number of criminals in the United States, who could be found and incarcerated, thus reducing the number of free criminals. I've seen a number of papers that suggest the "incapacitation effect" deters criminals from committing new crimes-- this being the driving factor behind America's unusually lengthy sentencing rates for crimes that would draw a lower sentence in other First World nations-- but every one of the papers I read cannot explain how exactly this works, or explain the rising and falling of crime rates even when incarceration rates were fairly stable, or the lack of additional crime in places where prison populations are shrinking. You simply cannot lock up enough would-be criminals to stem that tide, because in reality, there's a new young punk with more balls than sense coming to the age where he starts making Bad Decisions™ every minute.

There's also the problem of a continuing cycle of criminality; there's a 70% chance that the son of a prisoner will also become a prisoner at some point in his life.

Another factor that you're ignoring (and so do most of the studies) is that a huge percent of the prisoners who were incarcerated in order to make the prison population numbers jump were incarcerated for nonviolent drug crimes, as part of Nixon's war on hippies, nonconformists, and Black Panthers (etc), and their incarceration would have no effect on the declining rates of violent crime.

The other big reality is that crime rates spiked tremendously in the years between WW2 and 1970, which has led some to speculate that the presence of Tetra Ethyl Lead in our gasoline (and its subsequent banning in the 1970s), a neurotoxin, may have been a contributing factor to the spike.

There may indeed be something to the "incapacitation effect", but I doubt it. My personal experience with the types whom we're seeking to incapacitate tells me that it just makes them bitter, more angry/violent, and better-trained criminals (as they glean information from other criminals on the inside before being released, as most prisoners are). Other nations manage to get by without locking up such a significant chunk of their populations; I think we can, too.

"Theology made no provision for evolution. The biblical authors had missed the most important revelation of all! Could it be that they were not really privy to the thoughts of God?" - E. O. Wilson
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19-08-2016, 10:25 AM
RE: America you beauty! Round of applause to you good sirs and siresses.
Oregon never had private prisons, and I bet there are other states that don't. (not doing the legwork now).

[Image: dobie.png]Science is the process we've designed to be responsible for generating our best guess as to what the fuck is going on. Girly Man
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19-08-2016, 10:44 AM
RE: America you beauty! Round of applause to you good sirs and siresses.
When I volunteered at a facility in Pennsylvania, a certain private corrections group that just happens to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange* and also spends a great deal each year influencing immigration laws surely in no relation to their private immigration detention centers they built on the Mexican border, and also a few years ago had an Idaho facility shut down because the guards were running gladiatorial games among inmates offered to buy several prisons from the state. One of the conditions was that 90% of beds had to be full at all times, or there would be a financial penalty for breach of contract.

*$19.95 per share as of this post.

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19-08-2016, 10:57 AM
RE: America you beauty! Round of applause to you good sirs and siresses.
(19-08-2016 10:25 AM)Dom Wrote:  Oregon never had private prisons, and I bet there are other states that don't. (not doing the legwork now).

States with contracts to private facilities include: Alabama, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming.

The states with public-only facilities are Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Oregon, South Carolina, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin.


(31-07-2014 04:37 PM)Luminon Wrote:  America is full of guns, but they're useless, because nobody has the courage to shoot an IRS agent in self-defense
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19-08-2016, 11:51 AM
RE: America you beauty! Round of applause to you good sirs and siresses.
(19-08-2016 10:44 AM)Shai Hulud Wrote:  Idaho facility shut down because the guards were running gladiatorial games among inmates

Are you kidding me? That’s crazy shit right there.

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19-08-2016, 12:17 PM
RE: America you beauty! Round of applause to you good sirs and siresses.
(19-08-2016 11:51 AM)Full Circle Wrote:  
(19-08-2016 10:44 AM)Shai Hulud Wrote:  Idaho facility shut down because the guards were running gladiatorial games among inmates

Are you kidding me? That’s crazy shit right there.

[Image: 67555094.jpg]

Sadly not at all. That was the accusation by former inmates at the facility. There were no charges files when the FBI finished its investigation.

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19-08-2016, 07:12 PM
RE: America you beauty! Round of applause to you good sirs and siresses.
(19-08-2016 06:48 AM)Full Circle Wrote:  Yup, we’re cleaning up our prisons, turning them into theme parks and sending the inmates to some island called New Zealand.

Piss off, it'd make more sense to send them all to Australia.

(19-08-2016 10:25 AM)Dom Wrote:  Oregon never had private prisons, and I bet there are other states that don't. (not doing the legwork now).

The issue isn't so much the private prisons themselves, though obviously they are a big part of it. The issue is the whole private prison industry lobbing the government, local and federal, for laws that aim to incarcerate more people because it means more money for them. Or lobbying to keep stupid laws.

If you just do away with this entire industry than you open the flood gates for some first world country laws to come through. Which in turn reduces the number of poor people being incarcerated for petty shit which solves a bit of the poverty problem. And flow on and flow on.

Rehabilitation >>>>>>> incarceration.

And this is a huge stepping stone in you lot heading in that direction by getting rid of the biggest advocate for incarceration before rehabilitation.

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19-08-2016, 09:56 PM
RE: America you beauty! Round of applause to you good sirs and siresses.
(19-08-2016 07:12 PM)earmuffs Wrote:  
(19-08-2016 06:48 AM)Full Circle Wrote:  Yup, we’re cleaning up our prisons, turning them into theme parks and sending the inmates to some island called New Zealand.

Piss off, it'd make more sense to send them all to Australia.

The UK beat US there, we’d like to try somplace New. Cool

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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19-08-2016, 10:02 PM (This post was last modified: 19-08-2016 11:41 PM by DLJ.)
RE: America you beauty! Round of applause to you good sirs and siresses.
(19-08-2016 08:45 AM)RocketSurgeon76 Wrote:  
(19-08-2016 07:13 AM)DLJ Wrote:  So, you're saying that there is a correlation between increased incarceration and reduction in crime.

Well, erm, Consider I guess the system is working, then.

Angel

Please tell me you weren't seriously positing a "correlation is causation" argument.
...

You need to be told?

Facepalm

btw, (and sorry, Muffsy, as this is Offtopic ) crime rates need to be correlated against 'reported' crime figures. Reported crime numbers and percentages are a (subjective) indicator of the level of trust in the quality of the legal system.

... meaning that a reduction in the number of incarcerations could be an indication that the system is failing.

CIO to Service Desk Manager: "How are we doing with availability and capacity related performance issues?"
Service Desk Manager to CIO: "There were no incidents reported this month."
CIO: "Fanastic! How did we achieve that?"
SDM: "We switched off the phones."

Big Grin

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19-08-2016, 10:10 PM
RE: America you beauty! Round of applause to you good sirs and siresses.
Speaking of correlation and causation for a time police around the country, specifically New York, where patting themselves for bringing crime down. They pointed as a reason for this to a myriad of programs they implemented, better training, tougher penalties an so on.

It was later found that the reason for a reduction in crime throughout the country was perfectly correleated with demographic changes, in particular a lower birth rate some 15 to 20 years before the drops in crime.

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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