As good as it gets for the GOP?
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30-05-2017, 02:31 PM
As good as it gets for the GOP?
A good article on the chaos being generated on Capitol Hill because of Trump. I like the last paragraph the best: "Washington’s turbulence has yet to redound to the benefit of Democrats, and the Montana victory soothed some Republican nerves. But one GOP lobbyist wondered to me whether longtime members of Congress might soon take the opportunity to retire if the situation doesn’t improve. “You finally have united Republican government, and this is as good as it gets? Why bother?” he said. “A malaise is setting in.”

That gives me a little hope that Trump might seriously be killing the GOP. Several people (including myself) have speculated that the GOP would never be the same again after even just nominating Trump, but this is the first time I have sincerely felt like the GOP has hit a new milestone in its history. The milestone "the beginning of the end."

The article:

My speculation about what the end of the GOP means (or what I mean by it):
1) the conservatives realize that they aren't actually in power. They don't have the power they need or the influence in the Whitehouse to get what they want done. Their best hope would be for Trump to have a heart attack so Pence could step in. Once the conservatives realize that the GOP isn't catering to them at the federal level any longer, they'll stop putting so many of their eggs in the GOP basket.
2) the moderates aren't stupid enough (not all of them anyways) to get caught up in Trump's version of the GOP in the long-run. They'll ultimately take the party further to the center
3) some of those moderates will just flat-out jump ship or retire. They'll either hope for the welcoming arms of the Libertarians or, and I think more likely, they'll try and find a path to being a more conservative leaning Democrat.
4) those that retire won't be replaced by hard-line conservatives nor Trump-supporting republicans. The conservatives don't have the power or political capital and the Trump bandwagon is a flaming pile of shit screaming down the hill, so it would be political suicide to jump on it. Meaning that more moderate Republicans will hope to pick up the seats any retirees leave vacant.
5) with the GOP splintering as the conservatives become more withdrawn and the moderates more numerous and further to the center, the Democrats will push for their moderates because they would be seen as a safer bet for getting votes from the Republicans looking to distance themselves from Trump's GOP, and the whole political system shifts more to the center (not pleased about that as a liberal but it's better than the dumpster fire we have now).

Basically what I think will happen is that the real conservatives (the social and fiscal conservatives) have no path forward from here to maintain any control. Even Pence taking over for Trump won't do it because by the time that would be likely to happen the conservatives will have lost the best 2 years for getting its agenda through Congress. Those first two years should be the period where the GOP has it the easiest, but it has been anything but. With the conservatives not getting what they want, they'll continue to stamp their feet but won't make any progress. The best they can hope for is to continue to obstruct any agenda they disagree with. And in the long term, that is a losing strategy. The GOP can't afford to fight both the Democrats and the hard-line conservatives, so something has to give. And I think the career politicians in the GOP will take the more centrist/moderate approach and try to either work with the Democrats or make the move to becoming a Democrat.

Meaning that for the GOP in upcoming elections, their best strategy would be to put more moderates up for election and hope people will vote for them over moderate Democrats. But that strategy would have a better chance of winning without Trump's dumpster fire tarnishing the reputation of the GOP, thus making it easier to see more Democrats getting elected.

So the GOP ends up splitting three ways: 1) conservatives attempt to push for a true conservative party, 2) moderates push for bipartisan work to get things done, 3) the Trump supporters who don't give a fuck. And if the party effectively rifts into 3 pieces, they are going to start the in-fighting that could start scattering their power even more.

Man I hope they fuck themselves over
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30-05-2017, 03:11 PM
RE: As good as it gets for the GOP?
Yeah well the Dems are essentially fucked too. I mean the only thing worse than winning with Trump is losing to him.
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