Big convention bounce for Trump
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25-07-2016, 01:26 PM (This post was last modified: 25-07-2016 01:40 PM by Lord Dark Helmet.)
Big convention bounce for Trump
He jumped 6 points in the CNN poll.

Trump 44%
Clinton 39%
Johnson 9%
Stein 3%

Head to head Trump 48% Clinton 45%

Pretty significant bounce, as Nate Silver says the average convention bounce is only 3 points and Trump pulled 6 points in this poll.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/25/politics/d...index.html

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25-07-2016, 01:45 PM
RE: Big convention bounce for Trump
Fivethirtyeight's Now-cast electoral college predictor for the first time has Trump winning the presidency with his chances at 54.5%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...ecast/#now

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25-07-2016, 01:48 PM
RE: Big convention bounce for Trump
Quite a few news organizations have published stories telling the general public to avoid polls and stats for the next few weeks because these conventions give a false reading. After the DNC, she will retake the lead. It means nothing.

Here is one:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/23/upshot....html?_r=0

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25-07-2016, 01:56 PM
RE: Big convention bounce for Trump
(25-07-2016 01:48 PM)WillHopp Wrote:  Quite a few news organizations have published stories telling the general public to avoid polls and stats for the next few weeks because these conventions give a false reading. After the DNC, she will retake the lead. It means nothing.

Here is one:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/23/upshot....html?_r=0

I'll stick to 538 for now, although I think they made a big mistake originally putting Trump's chances at less than 1%. Silver was man enough to admit his error and I respect that. That article is fairly biased. It says Trump might not even get a convention bounce at all, which we know now to be false. Add in the fact that Bernie's supporters are majorly pissed about the DNC email scandal and Trump making huge gains in independents after the convention, Hillary may never recover.

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25-07-2016, 01:59 PM
RE: Big convention bounce for Trump
(25-07-2016 01:56 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(25-07-2016 01:48 PM)WillHopp Wrote:  Quite a few news organizations have published stories telling the general public to avoid polls and stats for the next few weeks because these conventions give a false reading. After the DNC, she will retake the lead. It means nothing.

Here is one:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/23/upshot....html?_r=0

I'll stick to 538 for now, although I think they made a big mistake originally putting Trump's chances at less than 1%. Silver was man enough to admit his error and I respect that. That article is fairly biased. It says Trump might not even get a convention bounce at all, which we know now to be false. Add in the fact that Bernie's supporters are majorly pissed about the DNC email scandal and Trump making huge gains in independents after the convention, Hillary may never recover.

In your dreams. You actually think Bernie supporters will vote for Trump ?
Laugh out load .. Laugh out load .. Laugh out load .. Laugh out load

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25-07-2016, 01:59 PM
RE: Big convention bounce for Trump
(25-07-2016 01:56 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(25-07-2016 01:48 PM)WillHopp Wrote:  Quite a few news organizations have published stories telling the general public to avoid polls and stats for the next few weeks because these conventions give a false reading. After the DNC, she will retake the lead. It means nothing.

Here is one:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/23/upshot....html?_r=0

I'll stick to 538 for now, although I think they made a big mistake originally putting Trump's chances at less than 1%. Silver was man enough to admit his error and I respect that. That article is fairly biased. It says Trump might not even get a convention bounce at all, which we know now to be false. Add in the fact that Bernie's supporters are majorly pissed about the DNC email scandal and Trump making huge gains in independents after the convention, Hillary may never recover.

The story was published before all of this, but is still solid, historically. Your idea that she won't recover is dubious. Let's check back next Monday.

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25-07-2016, 02:01 PM
RE: Big convention bounce for Trump
(25-07-2016 01:59 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  
(25-07-2016 01:56 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  I'll stick to 538 for now, although I think they made a big mistake originally putting Trump's chances at less than 1%. Silver was man enough to admit his error and I respect that. That article is fairly biased. It says Trump might not even get a convention bounce at all, which we know now to be false. Add in the fact that Bernie's supporters are majorly pissed about the DNC email scandal and Trump making huge gains in independents after the convention, Hillary may never recover.

In your dreams. You actually think Bernie supporters will vote for Trump ?
Laugh out load .. Laugh out load .. Laugh out load .. Laugh out load

Didn't say that at all.

Did you see the thousands of them outside the Democrat convention? "We won't vote for Hillary!"

I think they just won't vote. I think they stay home. At least some of them.

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25-07-2016, 02:10 PM
RE: Big convention bounce for Trump
(25-07-2016 02:01 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(25-07-2016 01:59 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  In your dreams. You actually think Bernie supporters will vote for Trump ?
Laugh out load .. Laugh out load .. Laugh out load .. Laugh out load

Didn't say that at all.

Did you see the thousands of them outside the Democrat convention? "We won't vote for Hillary!"

I think they just won't vote. I think they stay home. At least some of them.

What I find hilarious and sad about Sanders supporters is this: Throughout this entire campaign, they followed him blindly, treating him like their hero, respecting everything he said, passionately defending everything he said as "gospel." Now, when he says, we need to vote for Hillary they say, "Fuck you!" What bunch of petulant ignorant babies. Feel the Bern, until he says something you don't agree with. Dolts.

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25-07-2016, 02:31 PM
RE: Big convention bounce for Trump
(25-07-2016 01:59 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  In your dreams. You actually think Bernie supporters will vote for Trump ?
Laugh out load .. Laugh out load .. Laugh out load .. Laugh out load
Well, that's what the polls are showing. A whopping 22% of them say they are going to vote for Trump instead of Hillary. This particular poll is from June, mind you, so it doesn't even factor in the effect of the current DNC scandal.

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25-07-2016, 02:33 PM
RE: Big convention bounce for Trump
Rolleyes
(25-07-2016 02:31 PM)Vosur Wrote:  
(25-07-2016 01:59 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  In your dreams. You actually think Bernie supporters will vote for Trump ?
Laugh out load .. Laugh out load .. Laugh out load .. Laugh out load
Well, that's what the polls are showing. A whopping 22% of them say they are going to vote for Trump instead of Hillary.

Polls also said Hillary would crush Bernie in Michigan and he won the state. Polls aren't accurate until a few weeks out.

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