Big convention bounce for Trump
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26-07-2016, 12:49 PM (This post was last modified: 26-07-2016 01:26 PM by Lord Dark Helmet.)
RE: Big convention bounce for Trump
(26-07-2016 12:39 PM)WillHopp Wrote:  In sticking with the title of this thread, NBC News said Trump, in fact, didn't get a bump in its poll.

I saw that. But for some reason they used their highly inaccurate online poll for that article and not their phone poll they conduct with the WSJ that has an A rating by 538. This was a SurveyMonkey poll which has a C- rating. That's just biased NBC reporting on whatever crappy poll they could find that shows he didn't get a bounce.

The Morning Consult poll, with an A+ rating, has Trump jumping 6 points to a 44-40 lead.

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26-07-2016, 01:38 PM
RE: Big convention bounce for Trump
(26-07-2016 12:49 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(26-07-2016 12:39 PM)WillHopp Wrote:  In sticking with the title of this thread, NBC News said Trump, in fact, didn't get a bump in its poll.

I saw that. But for some reason they used their highly inaccurate online poll for that article and not their phone poll they conduct with the WSJ that has an A rating by 538. This was a SurveyMonkey poll which has a C- rating. That's just biased NBC reporting on whatever crappy poll they could find that shows he didn't get a bounce.

The Morning Consult poll, with an A+ rating, has Trump jumping 6 points to a 44-40 lead.

You mean the same 538 that gave Trump a 1% chance of winning? Big Grin

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26-07-2016, 02:03 PM
RE: Big convention bounce for Trump
I couldn't find Morning Consult's poll on 538's site for poll grades, but I did notice it only surveyed 2,500 voters vs. something like 13K for NBC. Seems like a small number or sample size for an accurate count to me. Not sure why NBC would be slanted in its reporting, we aren't talking MSNBC. 538 also published a story about how phone polls are sliding in reliability, so not sure why you denigrated online polls for accuracy, especially with a sample size six times larger than Morning Consult.

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26-07-2016, 03:58 PM
RE: Big convention bounce for Trump
(26-07-2016 02:03 PM)WillHopp Wrote:  I couldn't find Morning Consult's poll on 538's site for poll grades, but I did notice it only surveyed 2,500 voters vs. something like 13K for NBC. Seems like a small number or sample size for an accurate count to me. Not sure why NBC would be slanted in its reporting, we aren't talking MSNBC. 538 also published a story about how phone polls are sliding in reliability, so not sure why you denigrated online polls for accuracy, especially with a sample size six times larger than Morning Consult.

Sorry, think I confused morning consult with Monmouth.

Currently RealClearPolitics' national average shows Trump holding a 0.2-point lead over Clinton, 44.1% to 43.9%. Out of the eight polls used to create the average, Trump leads in five (CBS News, CNN/ORC, LA Times/USC, Gravis, and Rasmussen) and loses to her in three (Reuters, Economist/YouGov, and NBC News/SM). Interestingly, two out of three polls that Clinton is leading in are online only polls, and are less accurate.

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26-07-2016, 04:05 PM
RE: Big convention bounce for Trump
(26-07-2016 03:58 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(26-07-2016 02:03 PM)WillHopp Wrote:  I couldn't find Morning Consult's poll on 538's site for poll grades, but I did notice it only surveyed 2,500 voters vs. something like 13K for NBC. Seems like a small number or sample size for an accurate count to me. Not sure why NBC would be slanted in its reporting, we aren't talking MSNBC. 538 also published a story about how phone polls are sliding in reliability, so not sure why you denigrated online polls for accuracy, especially with a sample size six times larger than Morning Consult.

Sorry, think I confused morning consult with Monmouth.

Currently RealClearPolitics' national average shows Trump holding a 0.2-point lead over Clinton, 44.1% to 43.9%. Out of the eight polls used to create the average, Trump leads in five (CBS News, CNN/ORC, LA Times/USC, Gravis, and Rasmussen) and loses to her in three (Reuters, Economist/YouGov, and NBC News/SM). Interestingly, two out of three polls that Clinton is leading in are online only polls, and are less accurate.

Thanks. Yeah, polls are pretty useless at this stage. I'll see what these ones say next week and know her bounce won't mean anything either.

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26-07-2016, 11:48 PM
RE: Big convention bounce for Trump
(26-07-2016 11:03 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(26-07-2016 10:48 AM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:  Yeah, that's exactly my point: your opinion changed. I already know that. My question is, why? Why are they now credible when before thay weren't?

Be specific.

It would be stupid to ignore Nate's ability. He made the mistake of not taking Trump seriously, and that made me question his objectiveness. Because he admittedly doesn't like Trump, he allowed bias to sneak into his assessment, originally giving Trump less than 1% chance.

He has since corrected this, and I hope he remains neutral. I'll take him at his word. Right now, one of 538's models predicts a Trump victory, the other two predict a Clinton victory. As long as they use facts and not feelings, they're going to be a reliable source of information.

Fair enough. Where was this nuance in your posts three months ago, though?
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31-07-2016, 12:48 PM
RE: Big convention bounce for Trump
It's not even the Monday after the DNC and now 538 has Clinton winning all three of his scenarios.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...cast/#plus

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