Can Mathematical models predict the economy?
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15-09-2013, 02:14 PM
RE: Can Mathematical models predict the economy?
It doesn't seem like it would be possible to predict social trends such as a new invention that spurs an industry.

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15-09-2013, 07:28 PM
RE: Can Mathematical models predict the economy?
(15-09-2013 02:14 PM)TrainWreck Wrote:  It doesn't seem like it would be possible to predict social trends such as a new invention that spurs an industry.

I agree. Organic matter and living species can't have predictable outcomes/trends. We can make good guesses based on the past trends.
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15-09-2013, 07:38 PM
RE: Can Mathematical models predict the economy?
Yes Idiotos. It's very possible. If you say no, go ply your (usual) garbage at the door of the Nobel Committee. Maybe in your next life, you can actually get an education.
It's called Econometrics.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nob..._Economics
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/09/busine...nobel.html

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15-09-2013, 08:14 PM
RE: Can Mathematical models predict the economy?
(15-09-2013 07:38 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  Yes Idiotos. It's very possible. If you say no, go ply your (usual) garbage at the door of the Nobel Committee. Maybe in your next life, you can actually get an education.
It's called Econometrics.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nob..._Economics
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/09/busine...nobel.html

Then what happened to the economy after the 90's? The well touted mathematical models didn't predict that did they?
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15-09-2013, 08:27 PM
RE: Can Mathematical models predict the economy?
(15-09-2013 08:14 PM)I and I Wrote:  
(15-09-2013 07:38 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  Yes Idiotos. It's very possible. If you say no, go ply your (usual) garbage at the door of the Nobel Committee. Maybe in your next life, you can actually get an education.
It's called Econometrics.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nob..._Economics
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/09/busine...nobel.html

Then what happened to the economy after the 90's? The well touted mathematical models didn't predict that did they?

Or they did predict it, but in a secret plot hatched by corporations, the CIA, and the Jews, they hid it from the working class just to piss off I&I. Hobo
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15-09-2013, 08:31 PM
RE: Can Mathematical models predict the economy?
Quote:Yes Idiotos. It's very possible. If you say no, go ply your (usual) garbage at the door of the Nobel Committee. Maybe in your next life, you can actually get an education. It's called Econometrics.

Robert F. Engle won the Nobel Prize on Econometrics in 2003, for IMPROVING, not PERFECTING predictions. He has published papers on predicting bubbles. But like all the other mainstream economics, before 2008 he was unable to see that there was a bubble and a crash was imminent.

Since you're so sure it's possible to predict this stuff, can you provide a link to someone who was able to predict the housing collapse and the financial crisis of 2008? There were several people. However I suspect none of them are on your side of the debate because they all used axioms rather than models to make the prediction.
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15-09-2013, 08:50 PM
RE: Can Mathematical models predict the economy?
I believe Paul Krugman says he called it. If you know more than he does, take it up with him.
http://consultingbyrpm.com/blog/2009/12/...-2005.html

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15-09-2013, 09:55 PM
RE: Can Mathematical models predict the economy?
(15-09-2013 08:50 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  I believe Paul Krugman says he called it. If you know more than he does, take it up with him.
http://consultingbyrpm.com/blog/2009/12/...-2005.html

You're very selective in what you call a "prediction". Krugman's actual prediction, in his own words, is here: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/08/opinio...ugman.html

He starts out by re-assuring people that: "So the news that the U.S. housing bubble is over won't come in the form of plunging prices; it will come in the form of falling sales and rising inventory, as sellers try to get prices that buyers are no longer willing to pay."

Obviously he was wrong. But he cherry picks from his blog, pointing only to the parts where he said there was a bubble, and claims he predicted it. When Obama came to office he also predicted unemployment wouldn't get above 9%. He was wrong there too. And now they claim that the stimulus is working as unemployment has fallen again, BUT, again, it's only because he's cherry picking the numbers. The fall in unemployment is purely due to people who have stopped looking for work and thus no longer count as unemployed: link. Which shows the problem with not applying logic (axiom) to empirical data; it's easy to make the empirical data support any position you want. Even though the unemployed has not fallen, he simply doesn't count those not looking for work, and then claims the empirical data proves his policies are working.

Here's another list of Krugman's bad predictions.
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15-09-2013, 10:00 PM (This post was last modified: 16-09-2013 04:23 AM by Bucky Ball.)
RE: Can Mathematical models predict the economy?
(15-09-2013 09:55 PM)frankksj Wrote:  
(15-09-2013 08:50 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  I believe Paul Krugman says he called it. If you know more than he does, take it up with him.
http://consultingbyrpm.com/blog/2009/12/...-2005.html

You're very selective in what you call a "prediction". Krugman's actual prediction, in his own words, is here: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/08/opinio...ugman.html

He starts out by re-assuring people that: "So the news that the U.S. housing bubble is over won't come in the form of plunging prices; it will come in the form of falling sales and rising inventory, as sellers try to get prices that buyers are no longer willing to pay."

Obviously he was wrong. But he cherry picks from his blog, pointing only to the parts where he said there was a bubble, and claims he predicted it. When Obama came to office he also predicted unemployment wouldn't get above 9%. He was wrong there too. And now they claim that the stimulus is working as unemployment has fallen again, BUT, again, it's only because he's cherry picking the numbers. The fall in unemployment is purely due to people who have stopped looking for work and thus no longer count as unemployed: link. Which shows the problem with not applying logic (axiom) to empirical data; it's easy to make the empirical data support any position you want. Even though the unemployed has not fallen, he simply doesn't count those not looking for work, and then claims the empirical data proves his policies are working.

Here's another list of Krugman's bad predictions.

It's not my field. If you know so much about it, why did you wait until someone else stepped up and answered the question, THEN criticized ? I'm not saying the predictions are perfect. I answered the question generally, (which you said NOT A WORD about, until someone else did). Is that your little game too ? You wait for someone else to say something, then criticize ?

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16-09-2013, 09:01 AM
RE: Can Mathematical models predict the economy?
@Bucky Ball,

Recap:

The thread suggests it's not possible to accurately predict economics.

You reply: "Yes Idiotos. It's very possible... Maybe in your next life, you can actually get an education. It's called Econometrics."

So when I ask you to provide an example of someone predicting economics, and then show that your example is wrong, you admit that "It's not my field" and attack me.

Given that it's not your field, it shows incredible closed mindedness imo to call people idiots and uneducated, and then to attack the one who points this out.
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