Can Mathematical models predict the economy?
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16-09-2013, 09:23 AM
RE: Can Mathematical models predict the economy?
@Bucky Ball,

Quote:why did you wait until someone else stepped up and answered the question

I like to think it's being open-minded and acknowledging that I don't know everything. Since you called everyone who doubted it 'uneducated idiots' and were so so 100% positive that it WAS possible to accurately predict economics, I wasn't going to call you wrong. I just asked you to prove yourself right because maybe you knew something I didn't. I kept an open mind that you might be right and I might be wrong, and just asked you to give me an example of anyone predicting the economic crisis. That was NOT a trick question, it was NOT a trap. If you responded with some evidence that anyone on your side predicted it, I would have graciously acknowledged that you were right and I was wrong. I can't believe you attack me for this.
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16-09-2013, 12:13 PM
RE: Can Mathematical models predict the economy?
How about the short answer. NO
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16-09-2013, 07:53 PM (This post was last modified: 16-09-2013 07:57 PM by Bucky Ball.)
RE: Can Mathematical models predict the economy?
As I said in my reply, take it up with the Nobel Committee or Dr. Krugman, if you know more than they do. Econometrics is an established field of study. The OP did not ask if "the last economic crisis" was predicted. (You changed the OP. Nice try.) Many people predicted it, various ways, in various places. If you're trying to say Econometrics has NO predictive value, or never predicted anything, good luck with that.

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16-09-2013, 07:57 PM
RE: Can Mathematical models predict the economy?
(16-09-2013 12:13 PM)JAH Wrote:  How about the short answer. NO

It seems that me you and frankie agree.

I brought this up here, and used this topic because the mathematical models that showed a rising economy in the 90's were so wrong, but many people here have faith in mathematics. I made a comment in another thread in the science section stating that mathematics can't predict the outcomes of organic matter or any behavior of any any living thing. Too many variables.

this idea that mathematical models can't predict those things was hotly contested by the science believers. (not to be confused with science).
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16-09-2013, 08:02 PM
RE: Can Mathematical models predict the economy?
(16-09-2013 07:57 PM)I and I Wrote:  It seems that me you and frankie agree.

I brought this up here, and used this topic because the mathematical models that showed a rising economy in the 90's were so wrong, but many people here have faith in mathematics. I made a comment in another thread in the science section stating that mathematics can't predict the outcomes of organic matter or any behavior of any any living thing. Too many variables.

this idea that mathematical models can't predict those things was hotly contested by the science believers. (not to be confused with science).

Let us consider your - *ahem* - thesis, if I may abuse the word.

Some mathematical models are inaccurate.
Therefore,
All mathematical models are inaccurate.

That's... something, all right, but it ain't reasoning.

You don't seem to know anything about either mathematics or science, so I'm not sure where you find the pretend competence to judge them.

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16-09-2013, 08:14 PM
RE: Can Mathematical models predict the economy?
(16-09-2013 08:02 PM)cjlr Wrote:  
(16-09-2013 07:57 PM)I and I Wrote:  It seems that me you and frankie agree.

I brought this up here, and used this topic because the mathematical models that showed a rising economy in the 90's were so wrong, but many people here have faith in mathematics. I made a comment in another thread in the science section stating that mathematics can't predict the outcomes of organic matter or any behavior of any any living thing. Too many variables.

this idea that mathematical models can't predict those things was hotly contested by the science believers. (not to be confused with science).

Let us consider your - *ahem* - thesis, if I may abuse the word.

Some mathematical models are inaccurate.
Therefore,
All mathematical models are inaccurate.

That's... something, all right, but it ain't reasoning.

You don't seem to know anything about either mathematics or science, so I'm not sure where you find the pretend competence to judge them.

The 90's mathematical predictions of the economy failed miserably for the same reason they all wouldn't work. Mathematical models to predict behavior of organic matter or living species is not possible. You can only do it on individual subjects but not a whole species or a whole solar system etc.

Are you implying that the mathematical equations to predict the economy in the 90's were correct?
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16-09-2013, 08:37 PM (This post was last modified: 16-09-2013 08:51 PM by Bucky Ball.)
RE: Can Mathematical models predict the economy?
(16-09-2013 08:14 PM)I and I Wrote:  
(16-09-2013 08:02 PM)cjlr Wrote:  Let us consider your - *ahem* - thesis, if I may abuse the word.

Some mathematical models are inaccurate.
Therefore,
All mathematical models are inaccurate.

That's... something, all right, but it ain't reasoning.

You don't seem to know anything about either mathematics or science, so I'm not sure where you find the pretend competence to judge them.

The 90's mathematical predictions of the economy failed miserably for the same reason they all wouldn't work. Mathematical models to predict behavior of organic matter or living species is not possible. You can only do it on individual subjects but not a whole species or a whole solar system etc.

So what was the point of starting yet another idiot thread then, if you already had your idiot answer, idiot ?
There are multiple examples of the predictive value of Econometrics of economic behaviors. You are just too ignorant to know about them, (just like you are 100% ignorant of every science). Your asserting your uneducated opinion is worthless, and proof/evidence of nothing.
Just another stupid Idiot Squared thread where he spouts his nonsense and thinks it will fly.

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16-09-2013, 08:56 PM
RE: Can Mathematical models predict the economy?
(16-09-2013 08:14 PM)I and I Wrote:  The 90's mathematical predictions of the economy failed miserably for the same reason they all wouldn't work. Mathematical models to predict behavior of organic matter or living species is not possible. You can only do it on individual subjects but not a whole species or a whole solar system etc.

Are you implying that the mathematical equations to predict the economy in the 90's were correct?

I see you have simply reiterated your idiotic thesis. Some predictions are wrong, therefore all predictions are wrong. Keep reaching for that rainbow, champ.

Can you present a rule for determining which systems are amenable to mathematical models? There must be some sort of quantifiable difference, between such as are (cf: something you may have heard of), and such as are not (you provide "a whole species or a whole solar system", "organic matter or any behaviour of any living thing"). Really, now? Any behaviour of any living thing? A fascinating claim. How might one substantiate such a claim?

If you can determine which systems are open to mathematical description and which are not, please, publish your findings. There are a great number of people who would find such information utterly fascinating and extremely useful.

But let us leave that aside for now, and consider a related matter.

Nuclear physics. The rules governing nucleon interaction are well-known and well-attested. They are thorough and precise. The are verifiable through prediction (as they have been many times) and they are fully falsifiable (which they have never been). They do not permit an exact solution to describe the behaviour of complex atoms. And yet we may predict with a high degree of certainty how a radioactively decaying sample will behave; how electrons in bulk metals will behave; how solar wind and high atmosphere particles will behave.

Do you know how this is done? For the predictions are assuredly testable! And they have been shown reliable. What witchcraft is at work here? Well, I and I, I shall share the secret with you - long guarded by us delusional science sheep-believers, the secret to forming useful predictions with respect to complex systems.

Here.

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16-09-2013, 10:18 PM
RE: Can Mathematical models predict the economy?
There is something about human free will that science doesn't understand. I'm a software coder and have worked with artificial intelligence algorithms. For decades it had been speculated that, since the brain is composed of "simple" connections, once processing power reached a certain threshold, computers also would become self-aware and develop free will. Over the past decades the amount of raw processing power in computers is something they never could have imagined. But, we're no closer to having self-aware artificial intelligence. The best examples, like IBM's Watson, are still following set instructions so that given the same inputs, the output will always be the same. A lowly termite has free will, but Watson does not.

Thus, while I think mathematical models are useful and are at times good predictors, I do agree that until we understand what exactly makes up free will and can model it (which is at least decades away), we won't be able to develop any models that can be 100% accurate in predicting human behavior.
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16-09-2013, 11:02 PM (This post was last modified: 17-09-2013 04:24 AM by Bucky Ball.)
RE: Can Mathematical models predict the economy?
There is no such thing as "free will". Most of what goes on in human brains is sub conscious. See any of Dr Eagleman's TED talks. Decisions are made before we are conscious of them.

ANd BTW. the question was, "Why did you WAIT, until AFTER I said anything' .... if you know so much about the nuances of what people like Krugman have done, and not done, the question was, why didn't you say something in the first place, and I would never have said anything about the OP. BEFORE. You couldn't be yelling about me calling people "idiots", (which BTW I and I and Trainwreck have proven time and again ... it's common knowledge here), if you had answered ther OP in the first place with your superior knowledge. If someone had stepped in and answered I and I's idiot OP, I would have said nothing AT ALL ... THAT's the point. Now, not only did you say nothing, but apparently you don't know the meaning of the word "before". You just want to WAIT, and nit-pick what other say, apparently. THAT's what piissed me off.

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