Can Trump win California?
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29-04-2016, 08:55 AM
Can Trump win California?
I'm not talking primary here.

I'm talking about the general election.

In a state that has a history of electing celebrities, republican celebrities even, could he pull off one of the hugest upsets in history? Republican strategist and pollster Frank Luntz believes that Trump might match Reagan's 14% of the black vote. Apparently Trump is well liked in the black community. I've seen a lot of African American's on TV at Trump rallies. Not talking about protesters either.

Even if he doesn't win California, what about some other states? I think he takes Florida (republican governor for two terms, huge republican turnout in primary, low Obama approval rating). Ohio and Virginia are tossups, but he might be able to win there with high working class white voter turnout in a bad economy, (and winning all of the Romney states, giving him around 265) he'd only need to pull one state out of a pool of Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa or Michigan to get 270. I think he takes Iowa and maybe Pennsylvania to lock it up.

Some rumors I've heard is that many insiders are telling Trump to pick Republican Governor of New Mexico Susana Martinez, or former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice as his VP. Those could be game changing.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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29-04-2016, 09:11 AM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(29-04-2016 08:55 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  I'm not talking primary here.

I'm talking about the general election.

In a state that has a history of electing celebrities, republican celebrities even, could he pull off one of the hugest upsets in history? Republican strategist and pollster Frank Luntz believes that Trump might match Reagan's 14% of the black vote. Apparently Trump is well liked in the black community. I've seen a lot of African American's on TV at Trump rallies. Not talking about protesters either.

Even if he doesn't win California, what about some other states? I think he takes Florida (republican governor for two terms, huge republican turnout in primary, low Obama approval rating). Ohio and Virginia are tossups, but he might be able to win there with high working class white voter turnout in a bad economy, (and winning all of the Romney states, giving him around 265) he'd only need to pull one state out of a pool of Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa or Michigan to get 270. I think he takes Iowa and maybe Pennsylvania to lock it up.

Some rumors I've heard is that many insiders are telling Trump to pick Republican Governor of New Mexico Susana Martinez, or former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice as his VP. Those could be game changing.

Were not many of those winners people with direct living and social ties to the power in california as well though? Not like he doesn't have ties there but he doesn't have the I united with you claim to the state.

Picking Condoleezza Rice sounds like a terrible decision or game changer, largely because a strong frequently used and will be still continually used anti Hillary political decisions as SoS apply equally to Rice who had her own mistakes and disasters. That has so much backfire and handcuffing ability attached to it as some other VP choices have been.

There's the same scenario with Susana Martinez as well with one of the big talking and public points, the wall. As many governors or dealers with actual boarder states in the area, they don't believe this outsider fear or situation of using a wall is wise. She just made public comments about this a week ago too.

Just like her predecessor and much better presidential candidate in former NM Governor Gary Johnson, they realize there are far too many boogieman threats than real issues being attacked and focused on in the country.

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29-04-2016, 11:58 AM
RE: Can Trump win California?
Rice has all the same baggage Hillary has and a few bags of her own. I think she's a terrible choice. Trump will go from being the Republican who called invading Iraq a mistake to the candidate who is now defending on a daily basis one of the chief architects of that fiasco overnight.

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29-04-2016, 12:16 PM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(29-04-2016 11:58 AM)BnW Wrote:  Rice has all the same baggage Hillary has and a few bags of her own. I think she's a terrible choice. Trump will go from being the Republican who called invading Iraq a mistake to the candidate who is now defending on a daily basis one of the chief architects of that fiasco overnight.

That's a good point. He should avoid anything related to the Bush administration.

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29-04-2016, 12:25 PM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(29-04-2016 12:16 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  That's a good point.

You should see how sharp I am when it's not the day after a Pearl Jam concert and I've had more than 3 hours sleep.

Cool

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29-04-2016, 02:08 PM
RE: Can Trump win California?
He's lost the Hispanic vote and Susan Martinez as VP will just be seen as Trump pandering to the Hispanic voters. Not gonna happen. Too many insults have already been hurled. Without the Hispanic vote the GOP cannot win the White House.

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29-04-2016, 03:10 PM (This post was last modified: 29-04-2016 03:43 PM by Lord Dark Helmet.)
RE: Can Trump win California?
(29-04-2016 02:08 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  He's lost the Hispanic vote and Susan Martinez as VP will just be seen as Trump pandering to the Hispanic voters. Not gonna happen. Too many insults have already been hurled. Without the Hispanic vote the GOP cannot win the White House.

I don't believe you're reading that article correctly. It basically says that Romney lost a lot of the WHITE vote, and to make up for those losses, he would have had to collect 73% of Hispanics to win. An increase in only 4% of white votes and Romney would have won.

Hispanics are a very small % of the population in swing states (around 5% in most) except Florida, but the Hispanic population there is mostly Cuban, and they don't always vote democrat.

For Trump to win, all he needs is the states Romney won, grab Florida (looks easy, he's loved there) and some swing states with MAJOR white populations that have LOW % of hispanic voters (Ohio, plus only one of Iowa, Pennsylvania, or Virginia or similar combo).

The GOP does not need the Hispanic vote. The article says specifically that to win the white house, the GOP need only appeal better to working class whites.

Trump is doing that handily.

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29-04-2016, 03:56 PM (This post was last modified: 29-04-2016 04:24 PM by GirlyMan.)
RE: Can Trump win California?
(29-04-2016 03:10 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  I don't believe you're reading that article correctly. It basically says that Romney lost a lot of the WHITE vote, and to make up for those losses, he would have had to collect 73% of Hispanics to win. An increase in only 4% of white votes and Romney would have won.

That's not what Silver says. 4% increase in white vote would still have the Dems winning 279 to 259. And that's assuming the GOP gets a 4% increase in college educated whites which is almost certainly not gonna happen.

And not sure what you mean by Romney lost a lot of the white vote when he got 59% (more than Reagan) of them. He got 62% of non college-educated whites.

It's 28% in CA. No chance of him taking CA.

Don't argue with me. Argue with someone who does this for a living.

"There’s no question that recent demographic trends have aided Democrats enormously. In 1980, Ronald Reagan won 56 percent of all white voters and won election in a 44-state landslide. In 2012, GOP nominee Mitt Romney carried 59 percent of all white voters yet lost decisively. What happened? African-Americans, Latinos, Asians and other non-whites — all overwhelmingly Democratic-leaning groups — rose from 12 percent of voters in 1980 to 28 percent in 2012."

#sigh
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29-04-2016, 04:13 PM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(29-04-2016 03:56 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  
(29-04-2016 03:10 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  I don't believe you're reading that article correctly. It basically says that Romney lost a lot of the WHITE vote, and to make up for those losses, he would have had to collect 73% of Hispanics to win. An increase in only 4% of white votes and Romney would have won.

Hispanics are a very small % of the population in swing states (around 5% in most) except Florida,

It's 28% in CA. No chance of him taking CA.

Don't argue with me. Argue with someone who does this for a living.

"There’s no question that recent demographic trends have aided Democrats enormously. In 1980, Ronald Reagan won 56 percent of all white voters and won election in a 44-state landslide. In 2012, GOP nominee Mitt Romney carried 59 percent of all white voters yet lost decisively. What happened? African-Americans, Latinos, Asians and other non-whites — all overwhelmingly Democratic-leaning groups — rose from 12 percent of voters in 1980 to 28 percent in 2012."

Trump only needs 5% more white vote than Romney got. Do you think that's impossible considering the economy, unemployment rate, and a Democrat currently in office?

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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29-04-2016, 04:23 PM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(29-04-2016 04:13 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(29-04-2016 03:56 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  It's 28% in CA. No chance of him taking CA.

Don't argue with me. Argue with someone who does this for a living.

"There’s no question that recent demographic trends have aided Democrats enormously. In 1980, Ronald Reagan won 56 percent of all white voters and won election in a 44-state landslide. In 2012, GOP nominee Mitt Romney carried 59 percent of all white voters yet lost decisively. What happened? African-Americans, Latinos, Asians and other non-whites — all overwhelmingly Democratic-leaning groups — rose from 12 percent of voters in 1980 to 28 percent in 2012."

Trump only needs 5% more white vote than Romney got. Do you think that's impossible considering the economy, unemployment rate, and a Democrat currently in office?

That's assuming a 5% increase in college educated whites as well. And white women. That will almost certainly not occur.

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