Can Trump win California?
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29-04-2016, 04:37 PM (This post was last modified: 29-04-2016 04:43 PM by Lord Dark Helmet.)
RE: Can Trump win California?
(29-04-2016 04:23 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  
(29-04-2016 04:13 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Trump only needs 5% more white vote than Romney got. Do you think that's impossible considering the economy, unemployment rate, and a Democrat currently in office?

That's assuming a 5% increase in college educated whites as well. And white women. That will almost certainly not occur.

Hillary has had major problems with white men this time around. Obama only got 35% of the white male vote. If she gets in the low 30% range or less of white males, she could blow it. She seems to be campaigning only towards minorities and women. (She could change that after the primaries i suppose) She needs white males to win, and that's a fact.

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29-04-2016, 04:57 PM (This post was last modified: 29-04-2016 07:27 PM by GirlyMan.)
RE: Can Trump win California?
(29-04-2016 04:37 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(29-04-2016 04:23 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  That's assuming a 5% increase in college educated whites as well. And white women. That will almost certainly not occur.

Hillary has had major problems with white men this time around. Obama only got 35% of the white male vote. If she gets in the low 30% range or less of white males, she could blow it. She seems to be campaigning only towards minorities and women. (She could change that after the primaries i suppose) She needs white males to win, and that's a fact.

Of course she could still blow it. If the non college educated whites went 70% GOP instead of 62% or drastically increased their historical turnout (my guess is that Trump will spur a huge increase in turnout in minorities). And again, that would assume another 8% of non-college educated white women and a continued support of 56% of college educated whites.

Granted that I live in the Peoples' Republic of Maryland, don't get out much, and almost everyone I work with is college educated, but I have not found a single white woman at work who supports Trump. One Republican woman said, "I will never vote for Trump. I blink for a second and suddenly I'm a Democrat." Another evangelical Republican woman said her pastor preached "I don't agree with President Obama on much but I know in my heart he is a decent person trying to do the right thing. Just as I know that Donald Trump is not."

#sigh
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29-04-2016, 05:31 PM
RE: Can Trump win California?
My parents, who are in their 70s, have a lot of friends who are Republicans who are going to vote for Hillary. They won't vote for Trump and they won't vote for Cruz. They are not happy with the Hillary option but she's the lessor of all evils. I know several people like this.

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29-04-2016, 07:29 PM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(29-04-2016 05:31 PM)BnW Wrote:  My parents, who are in their 70s, have a lot of friends who are Republicans who are going to vote for Hillary. They won't vote for Trump and they won't vote for Cruz. They are not happy with the Hillary option but she's the lessor of all evils. I know several people like this.

Hmmm, I think Satan is the lessor of all evils. Consider

Hillary is a lessee, at best.

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29-04-2016, 07:43 PM
RE: Can Trump win California?
Did you not see the post on the 3 hours of sleep? Spelling is the first thing to go.

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29-04-2016, 08:20 PM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(29-04-2016 07:43 PM)BnW Wrote:  Did you not see the post on the 3 hours of sleep? Spelling is the first thing to go.

Yabut, it's funny. Yes

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29-04-2016, 08:30 PM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(29-04-2016 12:25 PM)BnW Wrote:  
(29-04-2016 12:16 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  That's a good point.

You should see how sharp I am when it's not the day after a Pearl Jam concert and I've had more than 3 hours sleep.

Cool

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That is one of the better reasons to be sleep deprived.

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29-04-2016, 09:03 PM
Can Trump win California?
The Hispanics that don't vote for him will be catapulted over the wall.
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29-04-2016, 09:09 PM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(29-04-2016 08:20 PM)Chas Wrote:  
(29-04-2016 07:43 PM)BnW Wrote:  Did you not see the post on the 3 hours of sleep? Spelling is the first thing to go.

Yabut, it's funny. Yes

Can't argue. It was funny.

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29-04-2016, 10:31 PM
RE: Can Trump win California?
LDH, the general election is still half a year away so all your speculation is pretty much pointless. Let's make this simple though:

According to FiveThirtyEight.com, if the election were held today and taking demographics and past voting patterns into account, the Democrats win California with 60.8% of the popular vote. The Republicans manage just 36.6%. By contrast, the Republicans win Texas with 56.3% of the vote with the Democrats taking 42.3%.

Put simply, it is more likely that Hilary will win Texas than Trump will win California.

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