Can Trump win California?
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30-04-2016, 05:09 AM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(29-04-2016 10:31 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  LDH, the general election is still half a year away so all your speculation is pretty much pointless. Let's make this simple though:

According to FiveThirtyEight.com, if the election were held today and taking demographics and past voting patterns into account, the Democrats win California with 60.8% of the popular vote. The Republicans manage just 36.6%. By contrast, the Republicans win Texas with 56.3% of the vote with the Democrats taking 42.3%.

Put simply, it is more likely that Hilary will win Texas than Trump will win California.

Fivethirtyeight has been wrong at every step regarding Trump so far, especially Nate Silver himself. They've only just the other day admitted Trump will probably be the nominee. Trump is a long shot to win California, I know this. Nobody thought Arnold would actually get elected as a Republican and he did it twice. The ACA is squeezing the middle class and companies are fleeing CA. Trump could get closer than those numbers. White males are ditching the Democrat party.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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30-04-2016, 07:01 PM (This post was last modified: 30-04-2016 11:04 PM by GirlyMan.)
RE: Can Trump win California?
(30-04-2016 05:09 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(29-04-2016 10:31 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  LDH, the general election is still half a year away so all your speculation is pretty much pointless. Let's make this simple though:

According to FiveThirtyEight.com, if the election were held today and taking demographics and past voting patterns into account, the Democrats win California with 60.8% of the popular vote. The Republicans manage just 36.6%. By contrast, the Republicans win Texas with 56.3% of the vote with the Democrats taking 42.3%.

Put simply, it is more likely that Hilary will win Texas than Trump will win California.

Fivethirtyeight has been wrong at every step regarding Trump so far, especially Nate Silver himself. They've only just the other day admitted Trump will probably be the nominee. Trump is a long shot to win California, I know this. Nobody thought Arnold would actually get elected as a Republican and he did it twice. The ACA is squeezing the middle class and companies are fleeing CA. Trump could get closer than those numbers. White males are ditching the Democrat party.

You keep betting against the gay Jewish statistician who actually knows the math that you have not even been introduced to or are even prepared of comprehending. It amuses me. .... central limit theorem, law of large numbers... I bet my house you never heard of either of those. Unless you have, stop talking statistics cause you got 0 credibility.

#sigh
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30-04-2016, 07:14 PM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(29-04-2016 02:08 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  He's lost the Hispanic vote and Susan Martinez as VP will just be seen as Trump pandering to the Hispanic voters. Not gonna happen. Too many insults have already been hurled. Without the Hispanic vote the GOP cannot win the White House.

More Repubilcans have voted against Trump in the primaries, than for him.
14+ million / 10 + million.

He can't win the national election. He's the joke candidate of all time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of...ries,_2016

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein God has a plan for us. Please stop screwing it up with your prayers.
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30-04-2016, 08:04 PM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(30-04-2016 07:14 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  More Repubilcans have voted against Trump in the primaries, than for him.
14+ million / 10 + million.

This was my point when I brought up my parents friends. A lot of educated people are not going to vote for Trump.

Never say never though. Hillary has plenty of detractors as well. She's far from an ideal candidate.

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30-04-2016, 08:20 PM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(30-04-2016 07:01 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  
(30-04-2016 05:09 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Fivethirtyeight has been wrong at every step regarding Trump so far, especially Nate Silver himself. They've only just the other day admitted Trump will probably be the nominee. Trump is a long shot to win California, I know this. Nobody thought Arnold would actually get elected as a Republican and he did it twice. The ACA is squeezing the middle class and companies are fleeing CA. Trump could get closer than those numbers. White males are ditching the Democrat party.

You keep betting against the gay Jewish statistician who actually knows the math that you have not even been introduced to or are even capable of comprehending. It amuses me. .... central limit theorem, law of large numbers... I bet my house you never heard of either of those. Unless you have, stop talking statistics cause you got 0 credibility.

Well that was rude of me.

#sigh
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30-04-2016, 10:49 PM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(30-04-2016 08:04 PM)BnW Wrote:  
(30-04-2016 07:14 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  More Repubilcans have voted against Trump in the primaries, than for him.
14+ million / 10 + million.

This was my point when I brought up my parents friends. A lot of educated people are not going to vote for Trump.

Never say never though. Hillary has plenty of detractors as well. She's far from an ideal candidate.

I heard a story the other day on NPR reporting that about 40% of Republican voters said they probably would not vote for Trump in the general election. This is not that report, but it supports it, and contains an additional startling poll result: 19% of Republicans state that if Trump is the Republican nominee, they will vote for Clinton.

Let that sink in for a moment.
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01-05-2016, 06:02 AM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(30-04-2016 07:01 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  
(30-04-2016 05:09 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Fivethirtyeight has been wrong at every step regarding Trump so far, especially Nate Silver himself. They've only just the other day admitted Trump will probably be the nominee. Trump is a long shot to win California, I know this. Nobody thought Arnold would actually get elected as a Republican and he did it twice. The ACA is squeezing the middle class and companies are fleeing CA. Trump could get closer than those numbers. White males are ditching the Democrat party.

You keep betting against the gay Jewish statistician who actually knows the math that you have not even been introduced to or are even prepared of comprehending. It amuses me. .... central limit theorem, law of large numbers... I bet my house you never heard of either of those. Unless you have, stop talking statistics cause you got 0 credibility.

I don't know shit about statistics. All I can do is read what the stat gurus tell me. And so far, this is what Nate Silver has said about Trump becoming the Republican nominee:

------------
Trump has less than a 2% chance to win the Republican nomination.

Trump won't be the nominee.

Trump's ceiling is 20% of the vote.

Trump is "doomed" in the primary.

------------

Now, he might be right. Trump might fail to get the required delegates and lose a contested convention.

But if Trump wins the nomination, Nate Silver loses all credibility. He will be mocked forever. He will never live it down.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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01-05-2016, 08:57 AM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(01-05-2016 06:02 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  But if Trump wins the nomination, Nate Silver loses all credibility. He will be mocked forever. He will never live it down.

I'm already over it, actually.

The reality is that Silver's predictions on Trump were wrong no matter what happens now. So what? He runs a mathematical calculation based on known variables. If things enter into the equation he wasn't aware of there is always the chance his calculations will be wrong. To date, he's been unbelievably accurate. Trump added in variables he couldn't account for when a whole new group of people not previously seen registered or showed up to vote. The idea that somehow all Silver's credibility is out the window because he was wrong one time is preposterous.

The Right has been crying about him for years now because he keeps (correctly) predicting where there will be Republican defeats. I think it was after 2012 when they actually tried to blame him for losing the election, making the ridiculous argument that his calling a winner on his blog before the election influenced how people voted. The argument doesn't get any dumber than that.

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01-05-2016, 09:02 AM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(30-04-2016 10:49 PM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:  
(30-04-2016 08:04 PM)BnW Wrote:  This was my point when I brought up my parents friends. A lot of educated people are not going to vote for Trump.

Never say never though. Hillary has plenty of detractors as well. She's far from an ideal candidate.

I heard a story the other day on NPR reporting that about 40% of Republican voters said they probably would not vote for Trump in the general election. This is not that report, but it supports it, and contains an additional startling poll result: 19% of Republicans state that if Trump is the Republican nominee, they will vote for Clinton.

Let that sink in for a moment.

Unless she gets indicted, I think she wins by at least the same numbers Obama beat Romney. At least that. Trump is going to scare the shit out of people. And his claims that he's going to move to the center and now start repudiating some of his previous craziness as "showmanship" is going to really piss off the people who put him in this position. If he's revealed as just another phony (or should I say "when"), the people who supported him for being "real" are going to start jumping ship. They don't have to vote for Hillary. Just not showing up will end it.

It doesn't matter. We're screwed either way. I had dinner with yet another couple last night who told me not voting for Hillary is the same as voting for Trump and how much worse he will be than her. I don't think so. I think he will be pretty awful, but she's no ray of sunshine either.

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When ignorance reigns, life is lost
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01-05-2016, 09:28 AM
RE: Can Trump win California?
I'm under no illusions about Clinton's beneficence. If the margin here in Texas is wide, I'll continue my pattern of voting Libertarian (I voted Obama in 08, but otherwise Libertarian since 1996). If the margin is narrow, I'll hold my nose and vote for Clinton. I know she's a lying politician who supported the worst foreign policy disaster in American history ... but sometimes, no change is indeed better than change, and this is one of those times.
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