Can Trump win California?
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01-05-2016, 10:06 AM
RE: Can Trump win California?
I hear you. And, with her you know what you're getting. An extension of what we've had since Bush took office in 2000. A violent, interventionist foreign policy that kills tons of brown people, an economy beholden to Wall Street, and because it's a democrat some leftist meat for the masses on Supreme Court justices so we can protect abortion rights. But, everything else will be about the same. No real help for the middle class, more outsourcing of jobs, and she better hope the next financial crises doesn't occur on her watch.

I'm still not voting for her. She has entirely too much literal blood on her hands for me. I'll throw my vote away on a 3rd party or a write-in candidate. I have a friend who's always wanted a vote in a presidential election. This may be his lucky year.

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01-05-2016, 10:35 AM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(30-04-2016 10:49 PM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:  
(30-04-2016 08:04 PM)BnW Wrote:  This was my point when I brought up my parents friends. A lot of educated people are not going to vote for Trump.

Never say never though. Hillary has plenty of detractors as well. She's far from an ideal candidate.

I heard a story the other day on NPR reporting that about 40% of Republican voters said they probably would not vote for Trump in the general election. This is not that report, but it supports it, and contains an additional startling poll result: 19% of Republicans state that if Trump is the Republican nominee, they will vote for Clinton.

Let that sink in for a moment.

What people SAY they'd do -- and what they DO - are very frequently two different things.....

Especially with the threat of "the wrong lizard" getting elected....

.......................................

The difference between prayer and masturbation - is when a guy is through masturbating - he has something to show for his efforts.
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01-05-2016, 11:42 AM (This post was last modified: 01-05-2016 11:55 AM by GirlyMan.)
RE: Can Trump win California?
(01-05-2016 06:02 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(30-04-2016 07:01 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  You keep betting against the gay Jewish statistician who actually knows the math that you have not even been introduced to or are even prepared of comprehending. It amuses me. .... central limit theorem, law of large numbers... I bet my house you never heard of either of those. Unless you have, stop talking statistics cause you got 0 credibility.

I don't know shit about statistics. All I can do is read what the stat gurus tell me.

Then how can you interpret their results or judge their "guruhood"? You probably fell for the bullshit "unskewed polls" last election. Didn't ya? Come on. I bet you did.

(01-05-2016 06:02 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  And so far, this is what Nate Silver has said about Trump becoming the Republican nominee:

------------
Trump has less than a 2% chance to win the Republican nomination.

Trump won't be the nominee.

Trump's ceiling is 20% of the vote.

Trump is "doomed" in the primary.

------------

Now, he might be right. Trump might fail to get the required delegates and lose a contested convention.

But if Trump wins the nomination, Nate Silver loses all credibility. He will be mocked forever. He will never live it down.

Dafuq you talking aboot? It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose

Silver ain't using a crystal ball to generate his numbers. He's got a model. As the inputs to the model change, the results change. Ain't no Silver bias to his results. He ain't trying to dick with or "unskew" the polls. He just uses them as is as inputs to his model. Based on accuracy, Silver's model has proven to be one of the best.

Since you admittedly don't no dick about statistics you should stop embarrassing yourself by trying to interpret them.

#sigh
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02-05-2016, 06:22 AM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(01-05-2016 11:42 AM)GirlyMan Wrote:  
(01-05-2016 06:02 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  I don't know shit about statistics. All I can do is read what the stat gurus tell me.

Then how can you interpret their results or judge their "guruhood"? You probably fell for the bullshit "unskewed polls" last election. Didn't ya? Come on. I bet you did.

(01-05-2016 06:02 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  And so far, this is what Nate Silver has said about Trump becoming the Republican nominee:

------------
Trump has less than a 2% chance to win the Republican nomination.

Trump won't be the nominee.

Trump's ceiling is 20% of the vote.

Trump is "doomed" in the primary.

------------

Now, he might be right. Trump might fail to get the required delegates and lose a contested convention.

But if Trump wins the nomination, Nate Silver loses all credibility. He will be mocked forever. He will never live it down.

Dafuq you talking aboot? It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose

Silver ain't using a crystal ball to generate his numbers. He's got a model. As the inputs to the model change, the results change. Ain't no Silver bias to his results. He ain't trying to dick with or "unskew" the polls. He just uses them as is as inputs to his model. Based on accuracy, Silver's model has proven to be one of the best.

Since you admittedly don't no dick about statistics you should stop embarrassing yourself by trying to interpret them.

You post a link to an article Nate Silver wrote 4 days ago but ignore the prior 5 million times fivethirtyeight said Trump had no chance.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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02-05-2016, 07:22 AM
RE: Can Trump win California?
You seem to be of the opinion that Silver has some personal vested interest here. It's math based on inputs. With Trump the variables have changed and the model is updated.

I don't get this obsession with trying to discredit Silver, but it's not the first time I've seen it. I suspect it's because he keeps telling the right things they don't want to hear. The fact is any model that seeks to predict the future is going to fall short. The more variables you can account for the closer you will be with something like an election, but predicting one over a year in advance is impossible.

So, Silver was initially wrong about Trump. So fucking what?

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02-05-2016, 08:23 AM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(02-05-2016 07:22 AM)BnW Wrote:  You seem to be of the opinion that Silver has some personal vested interest here. It's math based on inputs. With Trump the variables have changed and the model is updated.

I don't get this obsession with trying to discredit Silver, but it's not the first time I've seen it. I suspect it's because he keeps telling the right things they don't want to hear. The fact is any model that seeks to predict the future is going to fall short. The more variables you can account for the closer you will be with something like an election, but predicting one over a year in advance is impossible.

So, Silver was initially wrong about Trump. So fucking what?

My point is, maybe this election can't be predicted accurately. Trump continually outperforms his polls (reverse Bradley effect maybe?). He outperformed the polls by 6% in New York and 12% in Pennsylvania. Nate Silver based his numbers (partially) on polls. If polls regarding Trump are routinely off 5-15%, he could be wrong big time making his prediction this election cycle, if that carries over to the general.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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02-05-2016, 08:43 AM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(01-05-2016 10:35 AM)onlinebiker Wrote:  What people SAY they'd do -- and what they DO - are very frequently two different things.....

Especially with the threat of "the wrong lizard" getting elected....

I wonder how often they make a public admission of willing to betray their own party? [Image: 2rfca47_th.jpg]

My guess would be that even if those folks don't actually vote for Hilary, they would stay home and not vote at all.

The Republicans are shitting the bed ... let me make some popcorn, this will be a good goddamned show.
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02-05-2016, 09:02 AM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(02-05-2016 08:23 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  My point is, maybe this election can't be predicted accurately. Trump continually outperforms his polls (reverse Bradley effect maybe?). He outperformed the polls by 6% in New York and 12% in Pennsylvania. Nate Silver based his numbers (partially) on polls. If polls regarding Trump are routinely off 5-15%, he could be wrong big time making his prediction this election cycle, if that carries over to the general.

I'm not sure how to respond to that. Predictions based on mathematical models are still just predictions and will never be 100%. Different polls typically have different results and tell different stories. Silver has been more accurate in his projections than most but he's never been 100%. It seems like he has because the outcomes he predicts have such a wide margin of error. Put another way, predicting which way a state will vote in the macro sense is much easier than predicting the exact voter percentages for a candidate. Must states are winner-take-all for electoral votes so if you lose the state by 1 vote you lose the whole thing.

I see no reason for this election to be special. Once we get through the primaries and it's down to two candidates, it should normalize in polling.

If it predicts to be close in key states, that's where the "experts" may be wrong. But, if people predict blowouts in Ohio and Pennsylvania, then it's probably over one way or the other.

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When ignorance reigns, life is lost
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02-05-2016, 02:56 PM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(30-04-2016 05:09 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(29-04-2016 10:31 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  LDH, the general election is still half a year away so all your speculation is pretty much pointless. Let's make this simple though:

According to FiveThirtyEight.com, if the election were held today and taking demographics and past voting patterns into account, the Democrats win California with 60.8% of the popular vote. The Republicans manage just 36.6%. By contrast, the Republicans win Texas with 56.3% of the vote with the Democrats taking 42.3%.

Put simply, it is more likely that Hilary will win Texas than Trump will win California.

Fivethirtyeight has been wrong at every step regarding Trump so far, especially Nate Silver himself. They've only just the other day admitted Trump will probably be the nominee. Trump is a long shot to win California, I know this. Nobody thought Arnold would actually get elected as a Republican and he did it twice. The ACA is squeezing the middle class and companies are fleeing CA. Trump could get closer than those numbers. White males are ditching the Democrat party.

And Trump is ditching everybody else.

Non-college educated white males account for 12% of the electorate in California. Assume Trump gets every last one of their votes. Where do the rest come from?

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02-05-2016, 03:06 PM
RE: Can Trump win California?
(02-05-2016 02:56 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  And Trump is ditching everybody else.

Non-college educated white males account for 12% of the electorate in California. Assume Trump gets every last one of their votes. Where do the rest come from?

Epirus?
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