Claim: vaccines can "trigger or exacerbate autism in some...genetically predisposed"
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17-02-2015, 03:20 PM
RE: Claim: vaccines can "trigger or exacerbate autism"
So, they "admit" that a proportion of kids will develop autism, with or without vaccination. They also claim that a (small) proportion will become autistic after vaccination has triggered it and that these kids would not have become autistic had they not been vaccinated.

If this claim is valid, we should still see a significantly higher autism rate in the vaccinated group if the sample size is big enough. How big is big enough? Depends on the difference between the groups. If, for example, the rate in vaccinated kids was 10% while the rate in unvaccinated kids was 1%, a fairly small sample size would suffice. If the difference was 1% vs 1.1%, a larger sample size would be required. [Aside: going from 1% to 1.1% is pretty medically significant given the number of kids involved, even if a study doesn't achieve statistical significance].

But some of the studies have been huge. For example, the Danish study (link below) followed up 537,303 kids over a total of 2,129,864 person-years. The first paragraph of their discussion reads...

"This study provides three strong arguments against a causal relation between MMR vaccination and autism. First, the risk of autism was similar in vaccinated and unvaccinated children, in both age-adjusted and fully adjusted analyses. Second, there was no temporal clustering of cases of autism at any time after immunization. Third, neither autistic disorder nor other autistic-spectrum disorders were associated with MMR vaccination. Furthermore, the results were derived from a nationwide cohort study with nearly complete follow-up data."

If the vaccine triggered autism in a small subgroup, I would expect it to show up in a study of this size. Either that, or they're talking about literally a handful of "additional" kids. Either these don't exist or we'd need a much bigger sample.

I promised you a link. The study was published in The New England Journal of Medicine and it's not behind a paywall.

http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJ...cleMethods
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17-02-2015, 03:27 PM
RE: Claim: vaccines can "trigger or exacerbate autism in some...genetically predisposed"
(17-02-2015 12:57 PM)JDog554 Wrote:  
(17-02-2015 12:45 PM)Learner Wrote:  I agree with you both, but you missed my main question in my post above. (The issue of talking about various aspects of vaccines needs everyone to slow down and clearly communicate.) Since you clearly missed the question above, let me reiterate it: is it a true statement that "vaccinations can trigger or exacerbate autism in some, if not many, children, especially those who are genetically predisposed to immune, autoimmune or inflammatory conditions?"

No, that is not true. Vaccines have no effect on any of those conditions. Only side effects of vaccinations are

injection site reactions (pain, swelling and redness)
mild fever
shivering
fatigue
headache
muscle and joint pain

or on rare cases an allergic reaction.

The viruses in vaccinations are weak and only strong enough to fight off the diseases its made for. Its not strong enough to make an impact on the immune system.

While I seriously doubt that MMR or vaccines cause autism, I'm also pretty sure that they are created to basically add to a list that is kept by ones immune system. When the immune system adds a new virus definition to its database, it always has the chance to make a mistake. One little slip and suddenly your immune system thinks that a protein on myelin sheath is that virus you just had... So it attacks you.

However, there are several issues with that mechanism for the "MMR causes autism" debate:
1. Autism isn't proven to be an autoimmune.
2. Any errors made by the hosts immune system, are just that, errors by the immune system, NOT by the vaccine.
3. If any of the viruses used in the vaccine triggered an autoimmune disorder, the live virus would likely cause the same result to the individual, only it would likely be much worse having to suffer the illness first, which can potentially kill.
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17-02-2015, 03:40 PM
RE: Claim: vaccines can "trigger or exacerbate autism in some...genetically predisposed"
(17-02-2015 03:20 PM)jockmcdock Wrote:  So, they "admit" that a proportion of kids will develop autism, with or without vaccination. They also claim that a (small) proportion will become autistic after vaccination has triggered it and that these kids would not have become autistic had they not been vaccinated.

If this claim is valid, we should still see a significantly higher autism rate in the vaccinated group if the sample size is big enough. How big is big enough? Depends on the difference between the groups. If, for example, the rate in vaccinated kids was 10% while the rate in unvaccinated kids was 1%, a fairly small sample size would suffice. If the difference was 1% vs 1.1%, a larger sample size would be required. [Aside: going from 1% to 1.1% is pretty medically significant given the number of kids involved, even if a study doesn't achieve statistical significance].

But some of the studies have been huge. For example, the Danish study (link below) followed up 537,303 kids over a total of 2,129,864 person-years. The first paragraph of their discussion reads...

"This study provides three strong arguments against a causal relation between MMR vaccination and autism. First, the risk of autism was similar in vaccinated and unvaccinated children, in both age-adjusted and fully adjusted analyses. Second, there was no temporal clustering of cases of autism at any time after immunization. Third, neither autistic disorder nor other autistic-spectrum disorders were associated with MMR vaccination. Furthermore, the results were derived from a nationwide cohort study with nearly complete follow-up data."

If the vaccine triggered autism in a small subgroup, I would expect it to show up in a study of this size. Either that, or they're talking about literally a handful of "additional" kids. Either these don't exist or we'd need a much bigger sample.

I promised you a link. The study was published in The New England Journal of Medicine and it's not behind a paywall.

http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJ...cleMethods

And that SHOULD be enough, but some people are just idiots.
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17-02-2015, 03:54 PM
RE: Claim: vaccines can "trigger or exacerbate autism in some...genetically predisposed"
(17-02-2015 03:27 PM)WeAreTheCosmos Wrote:  
(17-02-2015 12:57 PM)JDog554 Wrote:  No, that is not true. Vaccines have no effect on any of those conditions. Only side effects of vaccinations are

injection site reactions (pain, swelling and redness)
mild fever
shivering
fatigue
headache
muscle and joint pain

or on rare cases an allergic reaction.

The viruses in vaccinations are weak and only strong enough to fight off the diseases its made for. Its not strong enough to make an impact on the immune system.

While I seriously doubt that MMR or vaccines cause autism, I'm also pretty sure that they are created to basically add to a list that is kept by ones immune system. When the immune system adds a new virus definition to its database, it always has the chance to make a mistake. One little slip and suddenly your immune system thinks that a protein on myelin sheath is that virus you just had... So it attacks you.

However, there are several issues with that mechanism for the "MMR causes autism" debate:
1. Autism isn't proven to be an autoimmune.
2. Any errors made by the hosts immune system, are just that, errors by the immune system, NOT by the vaccine.
3. If any of the viruses used in the vaccine triggered an autoimmune disorder, the live virus would likely cause the same result to the individual, only it would likely be much worse having to suffer the illness first, which can potentially kill.

That has never happened and I highly doubt it can. Vaccines just contain proteins from the virus to help the immune system build anti bodies for that virus. They are very weak though, weak enough for a toddler to intake many and if it's even possible for the immune system to register it as a virus it would make you sick with that virus, but it wouldn't activate some other disorder you have like autism. If that were the case, getting the flu would also make you have allergy problems because allergies are an immune system disorder but that doesn't happen.

"If you keep trying to better yourself that's enough for me. We don't decide which hand we are dealt in life, but we make the decision to play it or fold it" - Nishi Karano Kaze
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17-02-2015, 05:25 PM
RE: Claim: vaccines can "trigger or exacerbate autism in some...genetically predisposed"
So, here are the scenarios.

Scenario 1. You kid gets a disease and dies where most kids have been immunised from that disease.
People ask you why you didn't immunise your child.
You bring up the following quotes
"While mainstream science discounts vaccinations as a cause, members of the National Autism Association feel vaccinations have triggered autism"
"The National Autism Association believes:
--Vaccinations can trigger or exacerbate autism in some"

These people then ask you which members of the National Autism Association had those feelings and beliefs? What are their credentials? What research, scientific knowledge was their feelings and beliefs based on?
In your anger you try to pin accountability onto these members of the National Autism Association, but your lawyer points out that the article clearly states that they were merely expressing their own (probably unqualified, unsupported) feelings and beliefs and there was no pretense presented regarding medical qualifications, no false reports presented...
Your lawyer also points out that the majority of USA citizens believe in an invisible supernatural sky daddy and have feelings that he is guiding them in their lives.

Scenario 2. You immunise your kid at a young age and find out later on that your kid has autism. You read several published scientific papers and find no correlation between immunisation and autism.
An anti-vaccine person tells you that you are to blame since you had your kid immunised.
You tell them to piss off.
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17-02-2015, 05:46 PM
RE: Claim: vaccines can "trigger or exacerbate autism in some...genetically predisposed"
(17-02-2015 03:54 PM)JDog554 Wrote:  
(17-02-2015 03:27 PM)WeAreTheCosmos Wrote:  While I seriously doubt that MMR or vaccines cause autism, I'm also pretty sure that they are created to basically add to a list that is kept by ones immune system. When the immune system adds a new virus definition to its database, it always has the chance to make a mistake. One little slip and suddenly your immune system thinks that a protein on myelin sheath is that virus you just had... So it attacks you.

However, there are several issues with that mechanism for the "MMR causes autism" debate:
1. Autism isn't proven to be an autoimmune.
2. Any errors made by the hosts immune system, are just that, errors by the immune system, NOT by the vaccine.
3. If any of the viruses used in the vaccine triggered an autoimmune disorder, the live virus would likely cause the same result to the individual, only it would likely be much worse having to suffer the illness first, which can potentially kill.

That has never happened and I highly doubt it can. Vaccines just contain proteins from the virus to help the immune system build anti bodies for that virus. They are very weak though, weak enough for a toddler to intake many and if it's even possible for the immune system to register it as a virus it would make you sick with that virus, but it wouldn't activate some other disorder you have like autism.

I understand that vaccines introduce proteins to your immune system. The system records these for future reference. However, when the system makes an error, it can mistake other proteins in the body for the ones that have been previously recorded. For example, if the immune system records the mono signature incorrectly, it may then see proteins in the myelin sheaths in the brain as enemy, since the proteins look very similar to the mono virus. It's been shown that most people with MS have been exposed to the EBV, far more than the general population. The official cause for autoimmune disorders is currently "unknown". Leading theory is that these autoimmune disorders are at least occasionally caused by mishandled infections. It is not illogical to think that the system might make a similar mistake with the proteins found in vaccines. I don't know if it happens, but it seems possible.

I seriously doubt that it happens in the case of autism though.

Quote:If that were the case, getting the flu would also make you have allergy problems because allergies are an immune system disorder but that doesn't happen.

That doesn't even make sense. I'm not sure how similar a flu virus is to say, grass pollen, but it doesn't follow that one would "catch flu, get completely unrelated immune response."
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17-02-2015, 06:27 PM
RE: Claim: vaccines can "trigger or exacerbate autism in some...genetically predisposed"
(17-02-2015 01:00 PM)Learner Wrote:  
(17-02-2015 12:57 PM)JDog554 Wrote:  No, that is not true.

What's your source that proves not only that vaccines don't cause autism, but that vaccines couldn't be a trigger for those with a genetic predisposition? I'm trying to obliterate these arguments from every possible angle. Point me to the study, and that's all I'm asking for.

There is no evidence that autism triggered. It is a developmental disorder that appears to have a genetic basis and the brain abnormalities develop in utero.

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
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17-02-2015, 06:42 PM
RE: Claim: vaccines can "trigger or exacerbate autism in some...genetically predisposed"
(17-02-2015 05:46 PM)WeAreTheCosmos Wrote:  
(17-02-2015 03:54 PM)JDog554 Wrote:  That has never happened and I highly doubt it can. Vaccines just contain proteins from the virus to help the immune system build anti bodies for that virus. They are very weak though, weak enough for a toddler to intake many and if it's even possible for the immune system to register it as a virus it would make you sick with that virus, but it wouldn't activate some other disorder you have like autism.

I understand that vaccines introduce proteins to your immune system. The system records these for future reference. However, when the system makes an error, it can mistake other proteins in the body for the ones that have been previously recorded. For example, if the immune system records the mono signature incorrectly, it may then see proteins in the myelin sheaths in the brain as enemy, since the proteins look very similar to the mono virus. It's been shown that most people with MS have been exposed to the EBV, far more than the general population. The official cause for autoimmune disorders is currently "unknown". Leading theory is that these autoimmune disorders are at least occasionally caused by mishandled infections. It is not illogical to think that the system might make a similar mistake with the proteins found in vaccines. I don't know if it happens, but it seems possible.


I doubt thats very common though, you would have a better chance of winning the lottery probably.

Also autoimmune diseases are most likely passed down through genetics.

Quote:Autoimmune diseases occur when the immune system mistakenly attacks its own cells, causing inflammation. Different tissues are affected in different diseases, for example, the joints become swollen and inflamed in rheumatoid arthritis, and the brain and spinal cord are damaged in multiple sclerosis. The causes of these diseases are not well understood, but scientists believe that they have a genetic component because they often run in families.
http://www.nih.gov/news/health/feb2015/niams-17.htm

So if your family doesn't have any signs of autoimmune disease then its probably less likely to happen to you. I guess your right and it may be possible, but its probably such little chance people are better off not even worrying about it.

"If you keep trying to better yourself that's enough for me. We don't decide which hand we are dealt in life, but we make the decision to play it or fold it" - Nishi Karano Kaze
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18-02-2015, 05:46 AM
RE: Claim: vaccines can "trigger or exacerbate autism in some...genetically predisposed"
Any group that uses the phrase "mainstream science" as a derogatory on their website is pretty suspect Wink

Give me your argument in the form of a published paper, and then we can start to talk.
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18-02-2015, 10:09 AM
RE: Claim: vaccines can "trigger or exacerbate autism in some...genetically predisposed"
(18-02-2015 05:46 AM)Hafnof Wrote:  Any group that uses the phrase "mainstream science" as a derogatory on their website is pretty suspect Wink

As we Aussies say "Too bloody right!!"
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