Climate Change - General Discussion
Post Reply
 
Thread Rating:
  • 0 Votes - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
21-03-2017, 08:45 AM
RE: Climate Change - General Discussion
Sorry but another concern is disease vectors. The viruses and bacteria mutate at incredible speeds and as mosquitoes and other vectors expand their terrain and breeding times due to warmer conditions it allows for disease to spread. And like the forest fires once they get going it's hell to stop.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 2 users Like I'mFred's post
21-03-2017, 08:48 AM
RE: Climate Change - General Discussion
(21-03-2017 08:23 AM)morondog Wrote:  Something I'm confused about slightly: people keep making a fuss about being one degree Celsius warmer? I mean, I know that's on average, so some areas are probably ridiculously hotter than normal and some maybe a bit colder. And for the whole world to be one degree warmer probably takes a fuck-ton of energy... But it does seem strange to me that what I would think would be a small change has such a huge effect.

It is 1-2 degrees of change expected in the oceans, which will result in greater variability in seasonal temperatures and moisture transport. The oceans are the primary mechanism by which heat is transported across the surface of the Earth and into the atmosphere. And given the heat capacity of water, even a single degree of change in the oceans (in a homogenous sense, and that is another issue where the deep ocean will warm too) would mean heating the oceans by 1.386e+24 calories (1°C of change of 1 gram of water takes 1 calorie).

Or to put that in another context, 1000 calories = 1 kilocalorie. 1 kilocalorie = 4184 joules. So heating the whole ocean by even just 1°C would require 5.799e+27 joules of energy. For comparison, a 1 megaton nuclear bomb releases 4.18e+15 joules of energy. How many times can you divide the 1 megaton device into the number for the oceans? 1.39e+12!

So raising the temperature of the oceans by 1°C would be an equivalent amount of energy to a 1e+12 megaton nuclear bomb (if I have done my math correctly), the largest ever produced by the Russians (the Tsar bomb) had a max capacity of only 100 megatons.

I believe that is in megatons of TNT.

Being nice is something stupid people do to hedge their bets
-Rick
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 2 users Like TheBeardedDude's post
21-03-2017, 11:07 AM (This post was last modified: 21-03-2017 11:43 AM by Thoreauvian.)
RE: Climate Change - General Discussion
(21-03-2017 08:23 AM)morondog Wrote:  Something I'm confused about slightly: people keep making a fuss about being one degree Celsius warmer? I mean, I know that's on average, so some areas are probably ridiculously hotter than normal and some maybe a bit colder. And for the whole world to be one degree warmer probably takes a fuck-ton of energy... But it does seem strange to me that what I would think would be a small change has such a huge effect.

Temperatures have a different meaning in climate versus weather. For instance, there's only a 5 degree Celsius average temperature difference between now and the last ice age, when there was a mile of ice sitting on New York. For this reason, many people are warning that anything above a 2 degrees Celsius total rise in global average temperatures could be disasterous. For instance, 2 degrees C could mean the desertification of most of the western United States and the complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet, raising sea levels seven meters (though not in this century). 3 degrees C could mean the destruction of the Amazon rainforest and even the potential for our losing control of climate change through positive feedback loops.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2007/a...matechange
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 2 users Like Thoreauvian's post
21-03-2017, 11:13 AM
RE: Climate Change - General Discussion
(21-03-2017 11:07 AM)Jay Vogelsong Wrote:  
(21-03-2017 08:23 AM)morondog Wrote:  Something I'm confused about slightly: people keep making a fuss about being one degree Celsius warmer? I mean, I know that's on average, so some areas are probably ridiculously hotter than normal and some maybe a bit colder. And for the whole world to be one degree warmer probably takes a fuck-ton of energy... But it does seem strange to me that what I would think would be a small change has such a huge effect.

Temperatures have a different meaning in climate versus weather. For instance, there's only a 5 degree Celsius average temperature difference between now and the last ice age, when there was a mile of ice sitting on New York. For this reason, many people are warning that anything above a 2 degrees Celsius total rise in global average temperatures could be disasterous. For instance, 2 degrees C could mean the desertification of most of the western United States and the complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet, raising sea levels seven meters (though not in this century). 3 degrees C could mean the destruction of the Amazon rainforest and even the potential for our losing control of climate change through positive feedback loops.

And along the same vein, at the end of the Permian we saw a rise in pCO2 associated with volcanic outgassing and combustion of coal seams (the lavas erupted into them) and a temperature rise of up to 6°C, but this occurred over a span of maybe a 100kyr? It wasn't a super short-lived event. We are talking 1-2°C of change in roughly half a century. So even if we take the conservative estimate, we are looking at 1°C of change per century which would be 10°C (at the same rate which is probably unrealistically high) per 1000 years. Which is insanely fast.

Being nice is something stupid people do to hedge their bets
-Rick
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 2 users Like TheBeardedDude's post
21-03-2017, 11:32 AM (This post was last modified: 21-03-2017 11:42 AM by Kaneda.)
RE: Climate Change - General Discussion
Assuming everything that can go wrong does - greenhouse gases hidden under all the ice on earth get loose, ocean acidification continues, nuclear meltdown around the world and most vegetation burns to the ground - does complex life have any chance of recovering, inside maybe several million years? Or at least with ample time before the sun does kaput? If there's really no previous extinction to compare ours to, then it's really hard to predict what's on the other side, is there is another side.

“Until you make the unconscious
conscious, it will direct your life and you will
call it fate.”― C.G. Jung
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
21-03-2017, 11:40 AM
RE: Climate Change - General Discussion
(21-03-2017 11:32 AM)Kaneda Wrote:  Assuming everything that can go wrong does - greenhouse gases hidden under all the ice on earth get loose, ocean acidification continues, nuclear meltdown around the world and most vegetation burns to the ground - does complex life have any chance of recovering, inside maybe several million years? Or at least with ample time before the sun does kaput?

Yeah, life will continue on. We have 4.5 billion years or so before the Sun balloons into a red giant and takes the Earth out. Most macroinvertebrates can survive in temperatures up to 33-34°C, so the high latitudes should still offer a refugia for the thermally and acidity stressed organisms. Low latitude taxa will find habitat at higher latitudes but the higher latitude (and therefore cold-adapted) taxa are pretty well screwed, but evolution will breed new organisms to adapt to the colder high latitudes as the Earth re-equilibrates from our fuckery.

Sterilizing the Earth would be pretty fucking hard, especially considering all of the extremophiles around.

Being nice is something stupid people do to hedge their bets
-Rick
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 3 users Like TheBeardedDude's post
21-03-2017, 11:51 AM
RE: Climate Change - General Discussion
^^^Assuming life evolves again to a point that some advanced civilization follows our own, we should probably leave them a note.

“Until you make the unconscious
conscious, it will direct your life and you will
call it fate.”― C.G. Jung
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 3 users Like Kaneda's post
21-03-2017, 11:53 AM
RE: Climate Change - General Discussion
(21-03-2017 11:51 AM)Kaneda Wrote:  ^^^Assuming some advanced civilization follows our own, maybe we should leave them a note.

Well, if it's any consolation we probably won't really need to. The sedimentary, fossil, and geochemical records that will be preserved normally should show them everything they need to know.

Being nice is something stupid people do to hedge their bets
-Rick
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 2 users Like TheBeardedDude's post
21-03-2017, 11:56 AM
RE: Climate Change - General Discussion
(21-03-2017 11:53 AM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  
(21-03-2017 11:51 AM)Kaneda Wrote:  ^^^Assuming some advanced civilization follows our own, maybe we should leave them a note.

Well, if it's any consolation we probably won't really need to. The sedimentary, fossil, and geochemical records that will be preserved normally should show them everything they need to know.

Translation: We will be leaving a lot of garbage behind. Hobo
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 1 user Likes Thoreauvian's post
21-03-2017, 11:58 AM
RE: Climate Change - General Discussion
(21-03-2017 11:56 AM)Jay Vogelsong Wrote:  
(21-03-2017 11:53 AM)TheBeardedDude Wrote:  Well, if it's any consolation we probably won't really need to. The sedimentary, fossil, and geochemical records that will be preserved normally should show them everything they need to know.

Translation: We will be leaving a lot of garbage behind. Hobo

Humans have a long history of leaving their shit behind for others to find. Archaeologists depend on it.

Being nice is something stupid people do to hedge their bets
-Rick
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 4 users Like TheBeardedDude's post
Post Reply
Forum Jump: