Climate Change - General Discussion
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20-05-2017, 01:22 PM
RE: Climate Change - General Discussion
I'd like to file a "Citation Needed" request for the scientists who supposedly claimed a sea level rise of several meters by the start of the 21st century, back in the 1970s.

Thanks.

"Theology made no provision for evolution. The biblical authors had missed the most important revelation of all! Could it be that they were not really privy to the thoughts of God?" - E. O. Wilson
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20-05-2017, 01:37 PM
RE: Climate Change - General Discussion
(20-05-2017 01:22 PM)RocketSurgeon76 Wrote:  I'd like to file a "Citation Needed" request for the scientists who supposedly claimed a sea level rise of several meters by the start of the 21st century, back in the 1970s.

Thanks.

Also not a claim I'm aware of being widely believed in the scientific community for modern climate change associated sea level rise. But even assuming that someone published such a claim, it doesn't mean it was "bad science" nor does it invalidate modern estimates.

There are plenty of geology studies that have looked at sea level change through time as a way of trying to estimate the amount of sea level rise that is possible. Like the Vail sea level curve from the 70's. But these studies are based on an examination of sea level trends throughout the Phanerozoic and are not direct predictions of the amount or rate of sea level rise in the modern. And in addition to this, we now know more about how isostasy results in changes to continental and ocean basin elevations.

For instance, if one only looks at the sedimentary record (terraces for instance) on and around Greenland, you'd erroneously overestimate the magnitude of global sea level change as a consequence of local effects. The lock effects I'm referring to are the upward adjustment of Greenland without ice on it (isostatically readjusts upward if you remove the mass of the ice from it) and the downward adjustment of the North Atlantic Ocean basin (the volume of ice is now added as a volume of water into the basin. Causing it to become loaded downwards). What this means is that some places (like Greenland and surrounding coastal regions) would actually see a relative sea level fall as ice melts off of Greenland (it won't happen quickly because the land surface adjusts slowly). But if some places (like the North Atlantic basin) flex downwards, other parts of the basin will flex upwards. That means some areas will experience greater than average sea level rise because not only of the rise of sea level through the addition of new volumes of water into the ocean, but also because the bottom of the North Atlantic Ocean basin will push the water atop it upwards. So, while the current estimate for sea level rise is ~1 to 2 m over the next century, places like Washington D.C. might experience double that due to the readjustment of the ocean basins from the loading of the basins with a new volume of water. For more on that, you can look up Jerry Mitrovica at Harvard. He's a geophysicist who studies sea level rise and the corresponding changes in isostatic readjustment of continents and ocean basins.

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20-05-2017, 01:47 PM
RE: Climate Change - General Discussion
So has anyone here decided how they're going to commit suicide yet? I mean, Thoreauvian won't say it outright, but he clearly knows this is going to keep getting worse judging by all the dire forecasts he giddily leaves on this thread, arguing isn't jack-shit that anybody can or will do about them.. So let's just cut to the chanse and discuss how we can plan dignified, painless deaths for ourselves and our loved ones, because there's clearly no future to look forward to.

"Men willingly believe what they wish." -Julius Caesar
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20-05-2017, 02:39 PM
RE: Climate Change - General Discussion
(20-05-2017 01:47 PM)Kaneda Wrote:  So has anyone here decided how they're going to commit suicide yet? I mean, Thoreauvian won't say it outright, but he clearly knows this is going to keep getting worse judging by all the dire forecasts he giddily leaves on this thread, arguing isn't jack-shit that anybody can or will do about them.. So let's just cut to the chanse and discuss how we can plan dignified, painless deaths for ourselves and our loved ones, because there's clearly no future to look forward to.

Um, I'm not giddy about any of this at all. I just believe in facing the facts.

A lot of people all over the world are concerned about climate change and are doing something about it. Trump is a setback, but many U.S. state and city governments are still working the problem. China, India, Germany and other countries are making big efforts to do away with coal.

I am already 61 years old and will likely not see anything too bad in my area in my remaining lifetime. Depending on where you are and how old you are, you might not have to worry too much either. This is a very longterm set of problems, so we are trying to correct it for future generations rather than for ourselves. (However, since we caused the problems, we don't want future generations to think of us like we think of the Nazis.)
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20-05-2017, 02:47 PM
RE: Climate Change - General Discussion
(20-05-2017 11:19 AM)Born Again Pagan Wrote:  
(15-05-2017 02:32 AM)Thoreauvian Wrote:  "Alaska’s soils are taking far longer to freeze over as winter approaches than in previous decades, resulting in a surge in carbon dioxide emissions that could portend a much faster rate of global warming than scientists had previously estimated, according to new research."

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/slow-...ign=buffer

Tell me once again in what years has the Alaska soil started to freeze in mid May? Is it really yet unfroze since last winter?

I provide links to the articles I quote. You should read the full articles for more information if you are interested.

The present scientific consensus is that climate change is happening and that we humans are causing it, primarily by burning fossil fuels but also by deforestation, fugitive methane leaks, and so on. Much of the predictive science is much less certain, though scientists are improving their information and models all the time. In any case, the uncertainties in the predictions are a reason to stop changing the climate rather than to ignore the problems. The future could be much worse as well as not as bad as we fear.
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23-05-2017, 05:47 PM (This post was last modified: 23-05-2017 06:00 PM by Momsurroundedbyboys.)
RE: Climate Change - General Discussion
Thread Split and split part merged with the existing thread. This thread is for discussion about climate change, and not for debate if it's real or not. In this thread we are following the scientific evidence that man-made climate change is real and discussing new ways to stop it, slow it or wherever the actual science leads us.




If you aren't convinced, talk about it here....
http://www.thethinkingatheist.com/forum/...Discussion


But as if to knock me down, reality came around
And without so much as a mere touch, cut me into little pieces

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23-05-2017, 06:10 PM (This post was last modified: 23-05-2017 06:20 PM by Thoreauvian.)
RE: Climate Change - General Discussion
"The Antarctic Ice Sheet's mass has changed over the last several years. Research based on observations from NASA’s twin NASA/German Aerospace Center’s twin Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites indicates that between 2002 and 2016, Antarctica shed approximately 125 gigatons of ice per year, causing global sea level to rise by 0.35 millimeters per year."

"The Greenland Ice Sheet's mass has rapidly declined in the last several years due to surface melting and iceberg calving. Research based on observations from the NASA/German Aerospace Center’s twin Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites indicates that between 2002 and 2016, Greenland shed approximately 280 gigatons of ice per year, causing global sea level to rise by 0.03 inches (0.8 millimeters) per year."

-- both from NASA Climate Change

"A new scientific analysis finds that the Earth’s oceans are rising nearly three times as rapidly as they were throughout most of the 20th century, one of the strongest indications yet that a much feared trend of not just sea level rise, but its acceleration, is now underway."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ener...ign=buffer
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23-05-2017, 08:56 PM
RE: Climate Change - General Discussion
(20-05-2017 01:11 PM)morondog Wrote:  What we do know:
1. Carbon dioxide does cause global warming.
2. Carbon dioxide levels are now far in excess of what they have been at any time in history, including the time of the Romans.
3. This is solely due to man's activities in the 20th century, releasing centuries of stored carbon dioxide back into the atmosphere.

4. It is a FACT that since the 1860's or so (the time when reliable temperature data started to be collected widely), the global average temperature has gone up by approx 1.87 degrees (if I recall correctly).
5. It is a FACT that the ice caps at the poles are smaller than they once were, and that the arctic sea ice is less in extent every year, to the point that some people think that there may be no arctic sea ice even in *winter*, in the near future (I don't know the period off hand).
6. It is a fact that due to the increased levels of Carbon dioxide in the ocean, the acidity of the ocean has increased to the extent that the great barrier reef is dying and probably cannot be saved.

These facts can all be easily confirmed even by simply reading the wikipedia page on climate change.

Omitted from your "facts" is the fact that the previous Inter-Glacial Period was warmer than the present Inter-Glacial Period.

(23-05-2017 06:10 PM)Thoreauvian Wrote:  "The Greenland Ice Sheet's mass has rapidly declined in the last several years due to surface melting and iceberg calving. Research based on observations from the NASA/German Aerospace Center’s twin Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites indicates that between 2002 and 2016, Greenland shed approximately 280 gigatons of ice per year, causing global sea level to rise by 0.03 inches (0.8 millimeters) per year."

-- both from NASA Climate Change

How warm was Greenland during the last interglacial period?

The LIG surface temperature at the upstream NEEM deposition site without ice sheet altitude correction is estimated to be warmer by +8.5 ± 2.5 °C compared to the preindustrial period. This temperature estimate is consistent with the 7.5 ± 1.8 °C warming initially determined from NEEM water isotopes but at the upper end of the preindustrial period to LIG temperature difference of +5.2 ± 2.3 °C obtained at the NGRIP (North Greenland Ice Core Project) site by the same method.

http://www.clim-past.net/12/1933/2016/

That 8.5°C is 15.3°F, which is much higher than the 10.4°F above current global temperature averages that I've been telling you all about. The melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet is nothing but normal, during an Inter-Glacial Period.

The Earth warms during an Inter-Glacial Period until temperatures peak and Global Cooling starts. It's not a difficult concept to grasp.

The enemy numbered six hundred - including women and children - and we abolished them utterly, leaving not even a baby alive to cry for its dead mother. This is incomparably the greatest victory that was ever achieved by the Christian soldiers of the United States. -- Mark Twain
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24-05-2017, 12:14 AM
RE: Climate Change - General Discussion
(23-05-2017 08:56 PM)Mircea Wrote:  
(20-05-2017 01:11 PM)morondog Wrote:  What we do know:
1. Carbon dioxide does cause global warming.
2. Carbon dioxide levels are now far in excess of what they have been at any time in history, including the time of the Romans.
3. This is solely due to man's activities in the 20th century, releasing centuries of stored carbon dioxide back into the atmosphere.

4. It is a FACT that since the 1860's or so (the time when reliable temperature data started to be collected widely), the global average temperature has gone up by approx 1.87 degrees (if I recall correctly).
5. It is a FACT that the ice caps at the poles are smaller than they once were, and that the arctic sea ice is less in extent every year, to the point that some people think that there may be no arctic sea ice even in *winter*, in the near future (I don't know the period off hand).
6. It is a fact that due to the increased levels of Carbon dioxide in the ocean, the acidity of the ocean has increased to the extent that the great barrier reef is dying and probably cannot be saved.

These facts can all be easily confirmed even by simply reading the wikipedia page on climate change.

Omitted from your "facts" is the fact that the previous Inter-Glacial Period was warmer than the present Inter-Glacial Period.
Do you dispute any of the "facts" listed? Maybe you would like to tell us how long ago you are talking about and provide a citation for your "fact". Thanks anyway. I was interested enough to go do a little research on my own.

AND yet again, you think climate scientists don't know this shit?

Quote:
(23-05-2017 06:10 PM)Thoreauvian Wrote:  "The Greenland Ice Sheet's mass has rapidly declined in the last several years due to surface melting and iceberg calving. Research based on observations from the NASA/German Aerospace Center’s twin Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites indicates that between 2002 and 2016, Greenland shed approximately 280 gigatons of ice per year, causing global sea level to rise by 0.03 inches (0.8 millimeters) per year."

-- both from NASA Climate Change

How warm was Greenland during the last interglacial period?

The LIG surface temperature at the upstream NEEM deposition site without ice sheet altitude correction is estimated to be warmer by +8.5 ± 2.5 °C compared to the preindustrial period. This temperature estimate is consistent with the 7.5 ± 1.8 °C warming initially determined from NEEM water isotopes but at the upper end of the preindustrial period to LIG temperature difference of +5.2 ± 2.3 °C obtained at the NGRIP (North Greenland Ice Core Project) site by the same method.

http://www.clim-past.net/12/1933/2016/

That 8.5°C is 15.3°F, which is much higher than the 10.4°F above current global temperature averages that I've been telling you all about. The melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet is nothing but normal, during an Inter-Glacial Period.

The Earth warms during an Inter-Glacial Period until temperatures peak and Global Cooling starts. It's not a difficult concept to grasp.

Of course not, the question is whether human activities leading to sharply increased rates of global warming are a good idea. Also halle-fucking-lujah, finally someone who provides a citation. Thanks for this, the journal looks interesting.

First sentence of your article:
Quote: It remains challenging to understand the magnitude, timing and rate of the contributions of the Greenland and/or Antarctic ice sheets to the estimated 5 to 10m increase in global mean sea level during the last interglacial period
You realise a 5-10m increase in sea level is a fuck load? Can coastal cities handle such an increase?

Please tell me why we should bicker over political shit regarding what the facts actually are rather than looking to experts? If there's global consensus among climate scientists that a. global warming is happening due to human activities b. it's a bad idea to continue those activities, *why* is it a good idea to convince non-experts that there's nothing to worry about?

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(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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24-05-2017, 05:15 AM (This post was last modified: 24-05-2017 05:22 AM by Thoreauvian.)
RE: Climate Change - General Discussion
(23-05-2017 08:56 PM)Mircea Wrote:  The melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet is nothing but normal, during an Inter-Glacial Period.

Except that it's all happening much faster than any normal transition, due to the fact that humans are the cause.

"Models predict that Earth will warm between 2 and 6 degrees Celsius in the next century. When global warming has happened at various times in the past two million years, it has taken the planet about 5,000 years to warm 5 degrees. The predicted rate of warming for the next century is at least 20 times faster. This rate of change is extremely unusual."

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Featur.../page3.php

This rate of change is exactly what is so dangerous about present climate change. We will likely not be able to adapt quickly enough, let alone other species. Thus the alarm.
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