Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
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03-08-2016, 09:40 AM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(03-08-2016 01:03 AM)Vosur Wrote:  
(02-08-2016 10:53 PM)dancefortwo Wrote:  They're voting for Clinton because she's not a mentally insane dictator. Trump is a demagogue. Do you even know what a demagogue is? This isn't about policy or military support or non support. This goes way beyond normal politics. This is about a man who has a mental disease and needs psychiatriac help, a man who is disfunctional, who has no common decency. Donald Trump is the Joseph McCarthy of 2016 and he's running for the presidency of the US and he needs to be stopped.

Several years from now anyone who voted for Trump will deny it and secretly be embarrassed for having supported him and when Trump's name comes up in conversation you'll be silent and try to change the subject as quickly as you can.
It's hard to take you seriously when you exaggerate this much and act like an armchair psychologist. The Bush family clearly doesn't have a problem with supporting mentally insane dictators considering their relationship with the Saudi royalty.

Exaggerate? Trump in a conversation has wondered "why don't we use nukes" He must have missed the history class which discussed the lasting effects of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. And those bombs were a small fire crackers compared to what we have today.

Trump is more suited to running North Korea. He is a tyrannical meglomaniac, a self aggrandizing, power hungry, pathological liar who has no idea what it takes to barter with congress or anyone else.

The presidency, in case you don't know, is merely the executive branch of the government which is one of three branches and who share the power. Donald Trump has never shared a damned thing in his life. If he wins the presidency it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility to have a coup to remove him from office because if impeachment proceedings were successful he simply wouldn't leave. The military would have to physically remove him.

This man is dangerous not just to the US but to the world and I'm not exaggerating.

Shakespeare's Comedy of Errors.... on Donald J. Trump:

He is deformed, crooked, old, and sere,
Ill-fac’d, worse bodied, shapeless every where;
Vicious, ungentle, foolish, blunt, unkind,
Stigmatical in making, worse in mind.
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03-08-2016, 10:29 AM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
Over the course of the many years I've been aware of Trump as some sort of businessman celebrity, I can't recall one single instance of him seeming to be anything but a deeply dysfunctional narcissist. He's very much like the UK's unlamented equivalent, Robert Maxwell, except that the more discreet Maxwell rarely sounded off like some know-it-all, egomaniacal high school jerk whenever the chance arose. There is really no one in recent American presidential history you can compare Trump with. His personality is so warped he almost counts as insane.
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03-08-2016, 10:38 AM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(03-08-2016 09:40 AM)dancefortwo Wrote:  
(03-08-2016 01:03 AM)Vosur Wrote:  It's hard to take you seriously when you exaggerate this much and act like an armchair psychologist. The Bush family clearly doesn't have a problem with supporting mentally insane dictators considering their relationship with the Saudi royalty.

Exaggerate? Trump in a conversation has wondered "why don't we use nukes" He must have missed the history class which discussed the lasting effects of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. And those bombs were a small fire crackers compared to what we have today.

Trump is more suited to running North Korea. He is a tyrannical meglomaniac, a self aggrandizing, power hungry, pathological liar who has no idea what it takes to barter with congress or anyone else.

The presidency, in case you don't know, is merely the executive branch of the government which is one of three branches and who share the power. Donald Trump has never shared a damned thing in his life. If he wins the presidency it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility to have a coup to remove him from office because if impeachment proceedings were successful he simply wouldn't leave. The military would have to physically remove him.

This man is dangerous not just to the US but to the world and I'm not exaggerating.
That's exactly it. The US has a whole bunch of checks and balances in place to prevent anyone from being a dictator. Trump can't start wars nilly-willy, he would still have to get approval from Congress. The president has much less power than people realize. Congressional elections are arguably more important than the presidential ones.

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03-08-2016, 10:54 AM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
If Trump wins, we have to hope he'll be encouraged to chillax a lot and get a few pals to play golf with. Reagan, who was keen on a strict regimen of daily naps, knew that as a seventy-something White House newbie he would need his minions to do most of his work. I don't think Trump ever had the least expectation of winning. Stupid and nutty he might be, but I'm sure he'll take a hands-off approach from the get-go because he's going to be too old, too tired and too frightened to do anything else.
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03-08-2016, 10:56 AM (This post was last modified: 03-08-2016 10:59 AM by WillHopp.)
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(03-08-2016 10:38 AM)Vosur Wrote:  
(03-08-2016 09:40 AM)dancefortwo Wrote:  Exaggerate? Trump in a conversation has wondered "why don't we use nukes" He must have missed the history class which discussed the lasting effects of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. And those bombs were a small fire crackers compared to what we have today.

Trump is more suited to running North Korea. He is a tyrannical meglomaniac, a self aggrandizing, power hungry, pathological liar who has no idea what it takes to barter with congress or anyone else.

The presidency, in case you don't know, is merely the executive branch of the government which is one of three branches and who share the power. Donald Trump has never shared a damned thing in his life. If he wins the presidency it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility to have a coup to remove him from office because if impeachment proceedings were successful he simply wouldn't leave. The military would have to physically remove him.

This man is dangerous not just to the US but to the world and I'm not exaggerating.
That's exactly it. The US has a whole bunch of checks and balances in place to prevent anyone from being a dictator. Trump can't start wars nilly-willy, he would still have to get approval from Congress. The president has much less power than people realize. Congressional elections are arguably more important than the presidential ones.

Actually, you're not entirely correct here. According to the War Powers Resolution, the President must notify Congress within 48 hours of sending military forces into action. Armed forces can stay engaged for no more than 60 days, with an additional 30-day withdrawal period unless there is a formal Congressional authorization of military force or a declaration of war.

So, basically, the President can engage in battle for 60 days (90 if you count withdrawal time when counter action can occur). Presidents have been bombing without Congress forever, and those actions have escalated to war. So, if Trump gets ticked off and sends in the troops, Congress can't stop him for a good long time. Millions could die before he would be stopped.

http://www.infoplease.com/us/government/...gress.html

Edited to add the link.

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03-08-2016, 10:58 AM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(03-08-2016 09:40 AM)dancefortwo Wrote:  If he wins the presidency it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility to have a coup to remove him from office because if impeachment proceedings were successful he simply wouldn't leave. The military would have to physically remove him.

I envision something like this.

[Image: boys-ear-being-pulled.jpg]

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03-08-2016, 11:12 AM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(03-08-2016 10:56 AM)WillHopp Wrote:  
(03-08-2016 10:38 AM)Vosur Wrote:  That's exactly it. The US has a whole bunch of checks and balances in place to prevent anyone from being a dictator. Trump can't start wars nilly-willy, he would still have to get approval from Congress. The president has much less power than people realize. Congressional elections are arguably more important than the presidential ones.

Actually, you're not entirely correct here. According to the War Powers Resolution, the President must notify Congress within 48 hours of sending military forces into action. Armed forces can stay engaged for no more than 60 days, with an additional 30-day withdrawal period unless there is a formal Congressional authorization of military force or a declaration of war.

So, basically, the President can engage in battle for 60 days (90 if you count withdrawal time when counter action can occur). Presidents have been bombing without Congress forever, and those actions have escalated to war. So, if Trump gets ticked off and sends in the troops, Congress can't stop him for a good long time. Millions could die before he would be stopped.

http://www.infoplease.com/us/government/...gress.html

Edited to add the link.
Good point, I forgot all about the whole re-authorization regulations.

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03-08-2016, 11:13 AM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(03-08-2016 10:38 AM)Vosur Wrote:  
(03-08-2016 09:40 AM)dancefortwo Wrote:  Exaggerate? Trump in a conversation has wondered "why don't we use nukes" He must have missed the history class which discussed the lasting effects of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. And those bombs were a small fire crackers compared to what we have today.

Trump is more suited to running North Korea. He is a tyrannical meglomaniac, a self aggrandizing, power hungry, pathological liar who has no idea what it takes to barter with congress or anyone else.

The presidency, in case you don't know, is merely the executive branch of the government which is one of three branches and who share the power. Donald Trump has never shared a damned thing in his life. If he wins the presidency it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility to have a coup to remove him from office because if impeachment proceedings were successful he simply wouldn't leave. The military would have to physically remove him.

This man is dangerous not just to the US but to the world and I'm not exaggerating.
That's exactly it. The US has a whole bunch of checks and balances in place to prevent anyone from being a dictator. Trump can't start wars nilly-willy, he would still have to get approval from Congress. The president has much less power than people realize. Congressional elections are arguably more important than the presidential ones.

And none of the items you mentioned are within the mental ability of Trump to follow. In every aspect of his life Trump has an established dictatorial worldview. He is beyond the pale.

Shakespeare's Comedy of Errors.... on Donald J. Trump:

He is deformed, crooked, old, and sere,
Ill-fac’d, worse bodied, shapeless every where;
Vicious, ungentle, foolish, blunt, unkind,
Stigmatical in making, worse in mind.
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03-08-2016, 05:34 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
538 has Clinton at more than 88% now if the election were held today.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...ecast/#now

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03-08-2016, 05:43 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(03-08-2016 05:34 PM)WillHopp Wrote:  538 has Clinton at more than 88% now if the election were held today.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...ecast/#now

It is interesting to look at all the gay Jew boy's prognostications.

Nowcast (i.e today): 88.16% Clinton to 11.3% Thumper
Polls Only: 73.2% Clinton to 26.7% Thumpme
Polls+: 69.4% Clinton to 30.6% OhMyDearThump

The Polls+ is probably the closest in my totally unqualified opinion. The markets have her as a 2-3:1 favorite for a while now.

#sigh
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