Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
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03-08-2016, 05:54 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(03-08-2016 10:38 AM)Vosur Wrote:  
(03-08-2016 09:40 AM)dancefortwo Wrote:  Exaggerate? Trump in a conversation has wondered "why don't we use nukes" He must have missed the history class which discussed the lasting effects of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. And those bombs were a small fire crackers compared to what we have today.

Trump is more suited to running North Korea. He is a tyrannical meglomaniac, a self aggrandizing, power hungry, pathological liar who has no idea what it takes to barter with congress or anyone else.

The presidency, in case you don't know, is merely the executive branch of the government which is one of three branches and who share the power. Donald Trump has never shared a damned thing in his life. If he wins the presidency it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility to have a coup to remove him from office because if impeachment proceedings were successful he simply wouldn't leave. The military would have to physically remove him.

This man is dangerous not just to the US but to the world and I'm not exaggerating.
That's exactly it. The US has a whole bunch of checks and balances in place to prevent anyone from being a dictator. Trump can't start wars nilly-willy, he would still have to get approval from Congress. The president has much less power than people realize. Congressional elections are arguably more important than the presidential ones.

The presidency has much less power than Donald Trump realizes and this megalomaniacs, rich boy temper tantrums would disrupt our country needlessly when he finally discovers this fact.

Shakespeare's Comedy of Errors.... on Donald J. Trump:

He is deformed, crooked, old, and sere,
Ill-fac’d, worse bodied, shapeless every where;
Vicious, ungentle, foolish, blunt, unkind,
Stigmatical in making, worse in mind.
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03-08-2016, 06:09 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
If Trump is down 10 points in the Fox poll, and 34% of respodants say the Khan fiasco make them less likely to vote for Trump, then he needs to drop out now. Immediately.

10 points at Fox means 15-20 in real life.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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03-08-2016, 06:11 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(03-08-2016 06:09 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  If Trump is down 10 points in the Fox poll, and 34% of respodants say the Khan fiasco make them less likely to vote for Trump, then he needs to drop out now. Immediately.

10 points at Fox means 15-20 in real life.

Is the 15-20 like dog years?

Shakespeare's Comedy of Errors.... on Donald J. Trump:

He is deformed, crooked, old, and sere,
Ill-fac’d, worse bodied, shapeless every where;
Vicious, ungentle, foolish, blunt, unkind,
Stigmatical in making, worse in mind.
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04-08-2016, 06:39 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
If the election were held today, Clinton is leading 91.5-8.5. Boy, those biased polls sure are slanted.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...ecast/#now

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04-08-2016, 07:16 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 02:16 PM)Vosur Wrote:  
(02-08-2016 01:59 PM)BnW Wrote:  Second, Asange is not a lawyer. I can't believe he is qualified to determine what is sufficient for an indictment. And, if he really has strong, irrefutable evidence, why sit on it for 10 or so weeks?
That's true, though I imagine someone like Assange is well-acquainted with many lawyers. I'd say he's sitting on them for the same reason why he sat on the DNC e-mails for weeks or months on end. Assange admitted in an interview that he timed the leak of those e-mails for maximum visibility.

That's one of the things about this whole WikiLeaks business that has me wondering. Granted, Assange is probably no friend of Hillary's but I can't see him trying to put Trump into power, especially given Trump's stance on freedom of the press (or lack thereof). I'm wondering if he isn't deliberately overplaying his hand so that the "big reveal" in October will actually be a let down. Or are we possibly looking at a "History of the World Part 1" here?

(02-08-2016 05:22 PM)Vosur Wrote:  I recently read an analysis from a Democratic strategist who expressed concerns about a sort of Shy Tory effect with Trump. He said that people in online and automated phone call polls are more likely to express support for Trump than those with real callers on the phone (by a margin of 3-4%). It'll be interesting to see if that'll lead to another unexpected upset like the Brexit vote.

That was a worry the pundits raised here in Canada last election. Turns out we had shy Liberals and they kicked our Conservative ex-PM out in a landslide.

(03-08-2016 10:38 AM)Vosur Wrote:  Trump can't start wars nilly-willy, he would still have to get approval from Congress.

What you mean is that the POTUS can't Declare a State of War. Trump can start plenty of wars by being the sort of imbecile that has a knee-jerk reaction to the slightest perceived insult or threat. All he has to do is fuck things up to the point where the other side(s) declare war and congress is left with no choice but to shoot back. Starting wars is easy. Archduke Ferdinand managed it and he was dead at the time.

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04-08-2016, 07:21 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(03-08-2016 06:09 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  If Trump is down 10 points in the Fox poll, and 34% of respodants say the Khan fiasco make them less likely to vote for Trump, then he needs to drop out now. Immediately.

10 points at Fox means 15-20 in real life.

So what are the GOP's options?

- If Trump completely implodes and goes clear off the rails can they replace him?

- If Trump simply sucks so badly that he is UnElectable, as has been said before, are there mechanisms to remove him?

And who do they replace him with? Do they have Secondaries? Throw darts at the pictures of the other 16 candidates? Is there any precedent?

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04-08-2016, 07:28 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(04-08-2016 06:39 PM)WillHopp Wrote:  If the election were held today, Clinton is leading 91.5-8.5. Boy, those biased polls sure are slanted.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...ecast/#now

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538's "NowCast" is the most reactionary and least reliable of the three methods employed. It shows the short-term effects well but does a poor job of predicting the election. The "Polls Only" and "Polls Plus" models are more robust.

Still looks bad for Trump. "Polls Plus" is the least reactionary/most robust model and currently has Hillary winning with almost 3:1 odds. If she can maintain that lead for a week or two then Trump has little chance unless something fundamental changes.

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04-08-2016, 07:29 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(04-08-2016 07:21 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  
(03-08-2016 06:09 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  If Trump is down 10 points in the Fox poll, and 34% of respodants say the Khan fiasco make them less likely to vote for Trump, then he needs to drop out now. Immediately.

10 points at Fox means 15-20 in real life.

So what are the GOP's options?

- If Trump completely implodes and goes clear off the rails can they replace him?

- If Trump simply sucks so badly that he is UnElectable, as has been said before, are there mechanisms to remove him?

And who do they replace him with? Do they have Secondaries? Throw darts at the pictures of the other 16 candidates? Is there any precedent?

Here's what I found...

Rule 9 of the Republican National Committee rules governs "Filling Vacancies in Nominations," and stipulates that should the party's presidential or vice presidential candidate leave the ticket for whatever reason, the hole may be filled either by a reconvening of the national convention or by the party committee itself. The vice presidential nominee is not given any preferential consideration.

Should the committee elect to fill the vacancy — a seemingly more likely scenario given the logistics involved in organizing a second convention — Republican National Committee members representing a given state are entitled to cast the same number of votes as that state was entitled to at the convention. If the RNC members from any state are not in agreement about casting of their votes, the votes of that state are divided equally among members of the RNC voting.

The final stipulation of the rule is that no candidate may be chosen to fill a vacancy except by receiving a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the RNC election.

The Republican National Committee did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/happens-candi...37289.html

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04-08-2016, 07:33 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
Do they have any rules on Creating Vacancies? Or are they stuck with Trump until he decides to take his ball and go home?

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04-08-2016, 07:37 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(01-08-2016 04:53 PM)Vosur Wrote:  That sounds about right. I would say the same thing applies to Trump, though. He would be losing by double digits if he was running against anyone but Clinton right now. Sanders, for example, polled extremely well against him during the primaries. The American people somehow chose the two least liked political candidates in a generation as their nominees.

I know. Disappointing isn't it. Can you imagine Trump vs Obama? There'd be nothing left but some orange fluff.

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