Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
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04-08-2016, 07:42 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(04-08-2016 07:33 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  Do they have any rules on Creating Vacancies? Or are they stuck with Trump until he decides to take his ball and go home?

There's renewed talk in some Republican circles to find a way out as Trump lags big time behind Hillary Clinton in several new polls, and he has the highest unfavorable rating of any candidate for a major party on record -- 70% in this week's Washington Post-ABC poll.

One source with knowledge of these discussions underscores to CNN, however, that all of the ideas being bandied about now are highly unlikely to see fruition -- mostly because this kind of move to get rid of a nominee elected by GOP primary and caucus voters would be unprecedented. And a second source says he has spoken directly to senior GOP operatives with extensive convention experience who are actively exploring how to dump Trump.

More here:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/16/politics/d...index.html

See here they are the bruises some were self-inflicted and some showed up along the way. - JF

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04-08-2016, 08:09 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(04-08-2016 07:42 PM)Anjele Wrote:  
(04-08-2016 07:33 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  Do they have any rules on Creating Vacancies? Or are they stuck with Trump until he decides to take his ball and go home?

There's renewed talk in some Republican circles to find a way out as Trump lags big time behind Hillary Clinton in several new polls, and he has the highest unfavorable rating of any candidate for a major party on record -- 70% in this week's Washington Post-ABC poll.

One source with knowledge of these discussions underscores to CNN, however, that all of the ideas being bandied about now are highly unlikely to see fruition -- mostly because this kind of move to get rid of a nominee elected by GOP primary and caucus voters would be unprecedented. And a second source says he has spoken directly to senior GOP operatives with extensive convention experience who are actively exploring how to dump Trump.

More here:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/16/politics/d...index.html

That's old, pre-convention talk. I'm sure there's more of it now, and more panic. There problem now is that Trump is no longer simply the nominee, he's the candidate. They've ratified him. What they need now is some way to expel him. A few problems there:

- As you say, it's unprecedented. To put it mildly.

- Due to the lack of precedent there may be no actual mechanism. They can yank endorsements, funding, etc. but may not have any actual way to jettison Trump. I bet that changes before 2020.

- You just know Trump will run independant if he gets dumped so it's lose with him or lose without. Looks like more than a few Republicans would prefer to maintain some values and take the "without Trump" option.

What they really need is for George W to anti-endorse Trump. Something along the lines of "I was a complete fuck-up of a frat boy president but Trump will skullfuck our country in five minutes in ways that I never managed in 8 years."

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04-08-2016, 08:24 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
This whole election has already been such a damn embarrassment.

The thought of three more months of this makes my head hurt. Undecided

See here they are the bruises some were self-inflicted and some showed up along the way. - JF

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04-08-2016, 08:28 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
Then I shudder to think of the migraines that the thought of four years of President Trump must produce.

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04-08-2016, 08:34 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
Won’t Gary Johnson be asked to debate if he has 10% as per this poll?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hillary...2016-08-04

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04-08-2016, 08:45 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(04-08-2016 07:28 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  
(04-08-2016 06:39 PM)WillHopp Wrote:  If the election were held today, Clinton is leading 91.5-8.5. Boy, those biased polls sure are slanted.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...ecast/#now

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538's "NowCast" is the most reactionary and least reliable of the three methods employed. It shows the short-term effects well but does a poor job of predicting the election. The "Polls Only" and "Polls Plus" models are more robust.

Still looks bad for Trump. "Polls Plus" is the least reactionary/most robust model and currently has Hillary winning with almost 3:1 odds. If she can maintain that lead for a week or two then Trump has little chance unless something fundamental changes.

Yep, I know, just thought it was remarkable regardless of its reliability. Just two weeks ago he was leading that scenario.

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04-08-2016, 11:11 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(04-08-2016 08:24 PM)Anjele Wrote:  This whole election has already been such a damn embarrassment.

The thought of three more months of this makes my head hurt. Undecided

I've actually had three wildly apocalyptic nightmares about Trump becoming President. Each time I woke up and couldn't get back to sleep. I'm off my feed too. The man turns my stomach.

Shakespeare's Comedy of Errors.... on Donald J. Trump:

He is deformed, crooked, old, and sere,
Ill-fac’d, worse bodied, shapeless every where;
Vicious, ungentle, foolish, blunt, unkind,
Stigmatical in making, worse in mind.
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04-08-2016, 11:29 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(04-08-2016 07:33 PM)Paleophyte Wrote:  Do they have any rules on Creating Vacancies? Or are they stuck with Trump until he decides to take his ball and go home?

Yes. They do.

It's called 'The Golden Rule'.

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05-08-2016, 12:26 AM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(04-08-2016 08:34 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  Won’t Gary Johnson be asked to debate if he has 10% as per this poll?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hillary...2016-08-04
I think the threshold is 15%.

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25-11-2016, 09:14 AM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
Will election polls ever be taken seriously again? I called out the methodology in the polls in this thread months ago.

I still believe the mainstream media pollsters manipulate data to come to the conclusion they want. They were so in the tank for Hillary. They can never be trusted again. The IBD poll was about the only one that was accurate.

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