Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
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02-08-2016, 10:34 AM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 01:20 AM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:  He needs to state unequivocally that he will debate ... and then he'd better hit the books hard while his staff works overtime ginning up talking points.
I doubt that's going to happen. Trump has had a year to become competent at talking about policy details yet I haven't seen much, if any progress on that front. I think his biggest shot at winning will come from the upcoming WikiLeaks revelations. If they're as significant as Assange claims they are, they might be able to make enough of a difference to hand Trump the presidency. At this point, the thought of either of them becoming president makes me nauseous.

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02-08-2016, 11:04 AM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
Just went and looked at the data inside some of these "polls." Noticed a strange common theme within them. They always seem to poll more democrats than republicans, as well as more independents that lean democrat.

Rigged polls. They know the result they want so they can manipulate the data.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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02-08-2016, 11:08 AM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 11:04 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Just went and looked at the data inside some of these "polls." Noticed a strange common theme within them. They always seem to poll more democrats than republicans, as well as more independents that lean democrat.

Rigged polls. They know the result they want so they can manipulate the data.

There it is folks. This fool is a fucking caricature right? No one can be this transparently moronic. FiveThirtyEight is totally biased and unreliable when it disagrees with his preconceived notion but when it lined up for a few days after the RNC it was the guiding light in the darkness the one true voice. I sincerely hope you are just pulling off a great troll act because it makes me sad to think there are people as stupid as you in the real world.

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02-08-2016, 11:14 AM (This post was last modified: 02-08-2016 11:24 AM by Lord Dark Helmet.)
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 11:08 AM)Revenant77x Wrote:  
(02-08-2016 11:04 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Just went and looked at the data inside some of these "polls." Noticed a strange common theme within them. They always seem to poll more democrats than republicans, as well as more independents that lean democrat.

Rigged polls. They know the result they want so they can manipulate the data.

There it is folks. This fool is a fucking caricature right? No one can be this transparently moronic. FiveThirtyEight is totally biased and unreliable when it disagrees with his preconceived notion but when it lined up for a few days after the RNC it was the guiding light in the darkness the one true voice. I sincerely hope you are just pulling off a great troll act because it makes me sad to think there are people as stupid as you in the real world.

Please re-read my post. I said SOME of the polls. I should have been more clear. The mainstream media polls, especially ABC CBS CNN are in the bag for Hillary. They are not objective. They manipulate data. They purposely poll more democrats than republicans.

Why is this significant? Because the latest Gallup poll (July 2016) shows both parties with 28% of Americans registered. If you poll more dems than republicans, you get the answer you were looking for.

Some of the more objective polls show the race much closer, within the margin of error.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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02-08-2016, 11:23 AM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(25-07-2016 01:56 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  I'll stick to 538 for now, although I think they made a big mistake originally putting Trump's chances at less than 1%. Silver was man enough to admit his error and I respect that. That article is fairly biased. It says Trump might not even get a convention bounce at all, which we know now to be false. Add in the fact that Bernie's supporters are majorly pissed about the DNC email scandal and Trump making huge gains in independents after the convention, Hillary may never recover.

Well that didn't take long.

(02-08-2016 11:04 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Just went and looked at the data inside some of these "polls." Noticed a strange common theme within them. They always seem to poll more democrats than republicans, as well as more independents that lean democrat.

Rigged polls. They know the result they want so they can manipulate the data.

Oh my dear fuck we've got our own unskewed polls idiot. You really should stop doing math 'cause you suck at it.

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02-08-2016, 11:25 AM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 11:23 AM)GirlyMan Wrote:  
(25-07-2016 01:56 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  I'll stick to 538 for now, although I think they made a big mistake originally putting Trump's chances at less than 1%. Silver was man enough to admit his error and I respect that. That article is fairly biased. It says Trump might not even get a convention bounce at all, which we know now to be false. Add in the fact that Bernie's supporters are majorly pissed about the DNC email scandal and Trump making huge gains in independents after the convention, Hillary may never recover.

Well that didn't take long.

(02-08-2016 11:04 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Just went and looked at the data inside some of these "polls." Noticed a strange common theme within them. They always seem to poll more democrats than republicans, as well as more independents that lean democrat.

Rigged polls. They know the result they want so they can manipulate the data.

Oh my dear fuck we've got our own unskewed polls idiot. You really should stop doing math 'cause you suck at it.

Please see my last post.

Never once mentioned 538.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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02-08-2016, 11:41 AM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(25-07-2016 01:26 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  He jumped 6 points in the CNN poll.

Trump 44%
Clinton 39%
Johnson 9%
Stein 3%

Head to head Trump 48% Clinton 45%

Pretty significant bounce, as Nate Silver says the average convention bounce is only 3 points and Trump pulled 6 points in this poll.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/25/politics/d...index.html

Wow, dude, seriously? You use CNN here to boast about how well Trump did after his RNC, tout Nate and 538 to prove your point and then when these things don't align with your argument you trounce both sources? Completely pathetic and typical. How do you live with yourself?

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02-08-2016, 11:52 AM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 11:41 AM)WillHopp Wrote:  
(25-07-2016 01:26 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  He jumped 6 points in the CNN poll.

Trump 44%
Clinton 39%
Johnson 9%
Stein 3%

Head to head Trump 48% Clinton 45%

Pretty significant bounce, as Nate Silver says the average convention bounce is only 3 points and Trump pulled 6 points in this poll.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/25/politics/d...index.html

Wow, dude, seriously? You use CNN here to boast about how well Trump did after his RNC, tout Nate and 538 to prove your point and then when these things don't align with your argument you trounce both sources? Completely pathetic and typical. How do you live with yourself?

Please, I implore you to look at the CNN data. In the Trump bounce poll, they polled more republicans than democrats, giving Trump the lead in that poll. In their latest poll they polled more democrats than republicans leading to Clinton having the lead.

They artificially create what they want us to see. They created Trumps bounce. Then they took it away and gave Hillary a bounce by polling more dems.

I didn't realize this when I wrote what I did last week.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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02-08-2016, 11:56 AM (This post was last modified: 02-08-2016 12:32 PM by GirlyMan.)
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 11:52 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(02-08-2016 11:41 AM)WillHopp Wrote:  Wow, dude, seriously? You use CNN here to boast about how well Trump did after his RNC, tout Nate and 538 to prove your point and then when these things don't align with your argument you trounce both sources? Completely pathetic and typical. How do you live with yourself?

Please, I implore you to look at the CNN data. In the Trump bounce poll, they polled more republicans than democrats, giving Trump the lead in that poll. In their latest poll they polled more democrats than republicans leading to Clinton having the lead.

They artificially create what they want us to see. They created Trumps bounce. Then they took it away and gave Hillary a bounce by polling more dems.

I didn't realize this when I wrote what I did last week.

And once Trump loses you'll claim 'VOTER FRAUD!'. Unless you have a degree in Statistics you have no idea how to design or analyze the sampling methods. I know I can't. Even when the gay Jew statistician tries to spoon food it to me I can barely understand it. And I know that I have a better grasp on statistics than you do.

(01-05-2016 06:02 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  I don't know shit about statistics.

That's what I've been saying all along. You really don't know shit about statistics.

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02-08-2016, 12:31 PM (This post was last modified: 02-08-2016 12:38 PM by Lord Dark Helmet.)
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 11:56 AM)GirlyMan Wrote:  
(02-08-2016 11:52 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Please, I implore you to look at the CNN data. In the Trump bounce poll, they polled more republicans than democrats, giving Trump the lead in that poll. In their latest poll they polled more democrats than republicans leading to Clinton having the lead.

They artificially create what they want us to see. They created Trumps bounce. Then they took it away and gave Hillary a bounce by polling more dems.

I didn't realize this when I wrote what I did last week.

And once Trump loses you'll claim 'VOTER FRAUD!'. Unless you have a degree in Statistics you have no idea how to design or analyze the sampling methods. I know I can't. Even when the gay Jew statistician tries to spoon food it to me I can barely understand it. And I know that I have a better grasp on statistics than you do.

(01-05-2016 06:02 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  I don't know shit about statistics.

That's what I'm saying. You really don't know shit about statistics.

Fuck statistics. Its simple math.

CNN poll two weeks ago polled more democrats, Clinton lead in that poll.

CNN poll after the RNC polled more republicans. Trump lead that poll.

Latest CNN poll polled more democrats. Clinton leads that poll.

Don't need degree in statistics to see the problem here.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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