Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
Post Reply
 
Thread Rating:
  • 0 Votes - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
02-08-2016, 12:40 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 10:34 AM)Vosur Wrote:  I think his biggest shot at winning will come from the upcoming WikiLeaks revelations. If they're as significant as Assange claims they are, they might be able to make enough of a difference to hand Trump the presidency.

Tough to predict the future, but I'd be very surprised if WikiLeaks has any impact at all. Asange's announcement that he's going to wait until October to release the rest is just going to annoy people. And, the implications the mails came from Putin, which they won't confirm or deny, makes it easy to dismiss the whole thing.

If they have information voters should know about, they should release it now and give the press time to vet it. By dangling the idea as a lure with a promise of an eve-of-election release, Asange calls into question his own motivations and, I think, makes it easy to just dismiss and ignore the whole thing.

Shackle their minds when they're bent on the cross
When ignorance reigns, life is lost
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 3 users Like BnW's post
02-08-2016, 12:43 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 12:31 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(02-08-2016 11:56 AM)GirlyMan Wrote:  That's what I'm saying. You really don't know shit about statistics.

Fuck statistics. Its simple math.

You are an extremely simple man.

#sigh
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
02-08-2016, 12:55 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 12:43 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  
(02-08-2016 12:31 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Fuck statistics. Its simple math.

You are an extremely simple man.

You are full of insults. But no real substance.

I'm just using grade school math to make an observation.

If a pollster polls more republicans than democrats, and gets a result of more support for the republican candidate, then the next week polls more democrats than republicans, and the results show the democrat candidate now in the lead, its fairly obvious.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
[Image: 25397spaceballs.gif]
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
02-08-2016, 12:58 PM (This post was last modified: 02-08-2016 01:03 PM by GirlyMan.)
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 12:55 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(02-08-2016 12:43 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  You are an extremely simple man.

You are full of insults. But no real substance.

Does thst mean I am more heat than light? 'Cause that'd be cool.

(02-08-2016 12:55 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  I'm just using grade school math to make an observation.

That's the problem. Grade school mathematics ain't sufficient to explain the difference at all.

(02-08-2016 12:55 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  If a pollster polls more republicans than democrats, and gets a result of more support for the republican candidate, then the next week polls more democrats than republicans, and the results show the democrat candidate now in the lead, its fairly obvious.

Unless you are suggesting that the pollsters are deliberately changing their sampling methods to influence one party over the other? Not only are you a simple man, you are a conspiracy theory tinfoil helmet wingnut.

#sigh
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
02-08-2016, 01:04 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 12:58 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  
(02-08-2016 12:55 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  You are full of insults. But no real substance.

I'm just using grade school math to make an observation.

If a pollster polls more republicans than democrats, and gets a result of more support for the republican candidate, then the next week polls more democrats than republicans, and the results show the democrat candidate now in the lead, its fairly obvious.

Are you suggesting that the pollsters are deliberately changing their sampling methods to influence one party over the other? Not only are you a simple man, you are a conspiracy theory tinfoil helmet wingnut.

Of course that's what I'm suggesting. Absolutely.

If you make people believe their candidate has no chance they won't show up on election day. Hard to be motivated when you constantly hear your candidate has zero chance

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
[Image: 25397spaceballs.gif]
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
02-08-2016, 01:15 PM (This post was last modified: 02-08-2016 01:18 PM by GirlyMan.)
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 01:04 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(02-08-2016 12:58 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  Are you suggesting that the pollsters are deliberately changing their sampling methods to influence one party over the other? Not only are you a simple man, you are a conspiracy theory tinfoil helmet wingnut.

Of course that's what I'm suggesting. Absolutely.

If you make people believe their candidate has no chance they won't show up on election day. Hard to be motivated when you constantly hear your candidate has zero chance

And how exactly would these competing interests collude? "Okay this week we're going Dem heavy, next week we go Repub heavy. Kapish? I'm looking at you Rasmussen."

psikeyhacker usually hangs out over here.

#sigh
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 1 user Likes GirlyMan's post
02-08-2016, 01:22 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 01:04 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(02-08-2016 12:58 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  Are you suggesting that the pollsters are deliberately changing their sampling methods to influence one party over the other? Not only are you a simple man, you are a conspiracy theory tinfoil helmet wingnut.

Of course that's what I'm suggesting. Absolutely.

If you make people believe their candidate has no chance they won't show up on election day. Hard to be motivated when you constantly hear your candidate has zero chance

First of all, even you explained that Silver weights the more legitimate polls properly for his three scenarios. If the polls were the only picture and ALL of those polls were slanted you might have an argument. But he is using dozens of polls, weighting them appropriately (a fact you once used to legitimize Trump's lead and 538's process) and using all of the polls, meaning there are right wing polls in there, online polls in there and left wing polls in there.

His number of 83% for Clinton if there were to be an election today is much more than just polls, and his scenario that uses just polls still has her with a large lead. These are scenarios that take polls into consideration, not just the "slanted" numbers you are obsessing over. One CNN poll didn't change Trump's slim lead to a 60+ point deficit. If you truly believe that then you really are delusional and hypocritical.

Check out my now-defunct atheism blog. It's just a blog, no ads, no revenue, no gods.
----
Atheism promotes critical thinking; theism promotes hypocritical thinking. -- Me
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 1 user Likes WillHopp's post
02-08-2016, 01:28 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 01:22 PM)WillHopp Wrote:  
(02-08-2016 01:04 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Of course that's what I'm suggesting. Absolutely.

If you make people believe their candidate has no chance they won't show up on election day. Hard to be motivated when you constantly hear your candidate has zero chance

First of all, even you explained that Silver weights the more legitimate polls properly for his three scenarios. If the polls were the only picture and ALL of those polls were slanted you might have an argument. But he is using dozens of polls, weighting them appropriately (a fact you once used to legitimize Trump's lead and 538's process) and using all of the polls, meaning there are right wing polls in there, online polls in there and left wing polls in there.

His number of 83% for Clinton if there were to be an election today is much more than just polls, and his scenario that uses just polls still has her with a large lead. These are scenarios that take polls into consideration, not just the "slanted" numbers you are obsessing over. One CNN poll didn't change Trump's slim lead to a 60+ point deficit. If you truly believe that then you really are delusional and hypocritical.

Once again, at no time have I called into question 538 or their new numbers. I'm specifically pointing out that every time a liberal media pollster polls more democrats in a sample, Hillary leads that poll. When they poll more republicans, Trump leads.

Its really not that difficult.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
[Image: 25397spaceballs.gif]
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
02-08-2016, 01:40 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 01:28 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(02-08-2016 01:22 PM)WillHopp Wrote:  First of all, even you explained that Silver weights the more legitimate polls properly for his three scenarios. If the polls were the only picture and ALL of those polls were slanted you might have an argument. But he is using dozens of polls, weighting them appropriately (a fact you once used to legitimize Trump's lead and 538's process) and using all of the polls, meaning there are right wing polls in there, online polls in there and left wing polls in there.

His number of 83% for Clinton if there were to be an election today is much more than just polls, and his scenario that uses just polls still has her with a large lead. These are scenarios that take polls into consideration, not just the "slanted" numbers you are obsessing over. One CNN poll didn't change Trump's slim lead to a 60+ point deficit. If you truly believe that then you really are delusional and hypocritical.

Once again, at no time have I called into question 538 or their new numbers. I'm specifically pointing out that every time a liberal media pollster polls more democrats in a sample, Hillary leads that poll. When they poll more republicans, Trump leads.

Its really not that difficult.

But you're missing the point: When the polls and service fit your argument you never went digging to disprove the legitimacy of the polls, only now that everything I said would come to fruition after the DNC did you investigate further to imply her gain was bogus. She's crushing him and it has nothing to do with "rigged" polls.

Check out my now-defunct atheism blog. It's just a blog, no ads, no revenue, no gods.
----
Atheism promotes critical thinking; theism promotes hypocritical thinking. -- Me
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
02-08-2016, 01:45 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 12:40 PM)BnW Wrote:  Tough to predict the future, but I'd be very surprised if WikiLeaks has any impact at all. Asange's announcement that he's going to wait until October to release the rest is just going to annoy people. And, the implications the mails came from Putin, which they won't confirm or deny, makes it easy to dismiss the whole thing.

If they have information voters should know about, they should release it now and give the press time to vet it. By dangling the idea as a lure with a promise of an eve-of-election release, Asange calls into question his own motivations and, I think, makes it easy to just dismiss and ignore the whole thing.
I wouldn't be so sure. The politically motivated timing of the DNC e-mail leak (right before the convention) didn't do much to quell the shitstorm that ensued afterwards and as far as I recall, the authenticity of the e-mails was never called into question because of their alleged source (Russia). The leak was significant enough to force both the chairman and the CEO of the DNC to resign and the next one is supposed to provide enough evidence for a grand jury to indict Clinton. I'm having a hard time imagining just what kind of information could give Assange such certainty, but I suppose we'll know soon enough.

[Image: 7oDSbD4.gif]
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply
Forum Jump: