Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
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02-08-2016, 02:30 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 02:16 PM)Vosur Wrote:  That's true, though I imagine someone like Assange is well-acquainted with many lawyers.

So is Girly. What's your point? I am more qualified to determine whether or not an indictment is warranted because I been indicted multiple times?

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02-08-2016, 02:38 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 02:22 PM)Vosur Wrote:  
(02-08-2016 02:11 PM)WillHopp Wrote:  Actually, I'm curious about your source on this, because what has been circulating has been a portion of a quote that misrepresented his statement. The bolded part below has been left off most reports so that they can make it seem like he was saying this instead of Assange putting himself in the FBI's shoes.

"The FBI is going to go, “We have accumulated a lot of material about Hillary Clinton — we could proceed to an indictment. But because Loretta Lynch is the DoJ” — head of the DoJ in the United States, appointed by Obama — “Loretta Lynch is the person in charge of our case. She’s not going to indict Hillary Clinton, that’s not possible that could happen.” But the FBI can push for concessions from the new Clinton government in exchange for its lack of indictment. But there’s very strong material, both in the emails and in relation to the Clinton Foundation …"

So just curious if you have something more than this out-of-context misquote.
That quote is not where I got my information from. WikiLeaks was asked about the authenticity of the rumor started by the quote you posted by a reporter on Twitter and explicitly confirmed it there:

"@jessesingal We believe we have enough for a grand jury to indict; Assange never said he intended to harm Clinton. Are you going to update?
Source: https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/759116907308023808
Ok, thanks, just hadn't seen that.

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02-08-2016, 02:49 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
If Assange and his cohorts TRULY believed their info could get Clinton indicted then there is ZERO reason to wait until October. When he says he doesn't mean to harm Clinton he's lying. As a journalist who has protected sources before, there is no reason to hold a story unless you have an ulterior motive. If you have an ulterior motive then you are intentionally trying to harm her.

If he knew she would get indicted and wanted to be sure she couldn't win, he would release it ASAP.

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02-08-2016, 04:25 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 02:16 PM)Vosur Wrote:  I think you overestimate their competence. I mean, just look at how they handled the FBI controversy this year. They knew it was coming over a year in advance, but Clinton still doubled down on her lies in an interview earlier this week instead of admitting to the truth. The Washington Post and Politifact awarded her statements in that interview with the lowest possible rating. How did her campaign respond to that? By tripling down on the lies. It's no surprise that almost 70% of the country thinks that she's dishonest and untrustworthy. That number is probably going to rise before November if they keep going like this.

I completely disagree with your assessment of how Clinton and her team handled the e-mail scandal. The reality is that she walked away completely unscathed by the whole thing. The FBI dropped the whole thing, on national TV. What you're talking about is details. Trust me on this - no one gives a fuck about details. All the majority of the country saw was that there was no push for an indictment. People who are inclined to dislike her say the fix was in, and people are inclined to like her or, at least vote for her, are not going beyond the the judgment that there is no push for an indictment. Perhaps if the Republicans hasn't spent millions of dollars on 7 fucking Benghazi investigations they would have had some smidgen of credibility when they accuse her, but the fact is they don't. And, I saw the comments she made and the response from the Post and Politifact (and a Hillary supporter wrote an article in The Atlantic basically asking her to stop telling big lies until AFTER the election - seriously). So what? It happened in the same news cycle that Trump decided to pick a fight with the parents of a dead soldier. So, no one paid any attention to it. No one, and I can't emphasize this enough, no one fucking cares anymore. That ship has sailed.

Unless Asagne releases videos of her punching a baby or kicking a puppy, it's probably going to have zero impact on her on election day. 70% of the country may find her untrustworthy, but 538 currently has her chances of winning at 66%. Why? Because more than 70% of the country thinks Trump is a total loon.

Nothing Asange puts out is going to matter at this point. His best bet, if he really has something, is to put it out now so there is time to sift through it and see if something can stick. But, dropping it in late October? Yawn.

(02-08-2016 02:16 PM)Vosur Wrote:  That's true, though I imagine someone like Assange is well-acquainted with many lawyers. I'd say he's sitting on them for the same reason why he sat on the DNC e-mails for weeks or months on end. Assange admitted in an interview that he timed the leak of those e-mails for maximum visibility.

For the reason I explained above, I think that is going to backfire on him. No one is going to care. And, I think a lot of people will resent him trying to influence an American election. He's not, in my opinion at least, doing himself or his cause any favors here.

(02-08-2016 02:16 PM)Vosur Wrote:  I have to agree with that. She keeps getting away with things that would put other people in a world of trouble. Incidentally, her complete lack of accountability is one of my biggest concerns about her becoming POTUS.

I don't know if it's my biggest concern, but it's certainly on my list of concerns. As I've said many times, I'm not a fan. I think she sucks. I think she's better than him, but I think she sucks. I really wish I had another real choice.

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02-08-2016, 04:43 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 04:25 PM)BnW Wrote:  
(02-08-2016 02:16 PM)Vosur Wrote:  I have to agree with that. She keeps getting away with things that would put other people in a world of trouble. Incidentally, her complete lack of accountability is one of my biggest concerns about her becoming POTUS.

I don't know if it's my biggest concern, but it's certainly on my list of concerns. As I've said many times, I'm not a fan. I think she sucks. I think she's better than him, but I think she sucks. I really wish I had another real choice.

Next POTUS is going to have to deal a shitstorm of maelstrom. There's only one candidate who has the balls to deal with Putin, Kim Jong-Un, al-Hassad, Erdogan, Xi Jinping and it ain't the one with the tiny girly hands. She's got big balls. Mighty big balls.




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02-08-2016, 04:47 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 10:34 AM)Vosur Wrote:  
(02-08-2016 01:20 AM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:  He needs to state unequivocally that he will debate ... and then he'd better hit the books hard while his staff works overtime ginning up talking points.
I doubt that's going to happen. Trump has had a year to become competent at talking about policy details yet I haven't seen much, if any progress on that front. I think his biggest shot at winning will come from the upcoming WikiLeaks revelations. If they're as significant as Assange claims they are, they might be able to make enough of a difference to hand Trump the presidency. At this point, the thought of either of them becoming president makes me nauseous.

Most likely correct on both counts ... and I certainly agree with your final sentiment.
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02-08-2016, 04:53 PM (This post was last modified: 02-08-2016 05:57 PM by Thumpalumpacus.)
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 01:49 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(02-08-2016 01:40 PM)WillHopp Wrote:  But you're missing the point: When the polls and service fit your argument you never went digging to disprove the legitimacy of the polls, only now that everything I said would come to fruition after the DNC did you investigate further to imply her gain was bogus. She's crushing him and it has nothing to do with "rigged" polls.

She's not "crushing him." I just showed you the polls are bogus. I didn't go looking for this on my own. I read an article here and decided to look into it myself, since its a right wing source, and confirmed their findings.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/06/...ead-trump/

I wanted to believe the polls. I still believe some of them are fairly accurate. And those polls show a closer gap within the margin of error so its still a toss up. The ABC CBS CNN polls should be taken with a grain of salt.

Here is another example:

Reuters/Ipsos poll. Of the 1,276 respondents, 628 (49.2%) were Democrats, just 498 (39.0%) were Republicans, and 112 (8.8%) were independents.

Hillary leads that poll by 7%.

Gallup says Americans represent both parties around 28% each, but their poll has 49% democrats.

The obvious corollary, by your logic, is that Republican numbers too are inflated and should be adjusted downward as well ... yet not a word from you about that? Hmmm.
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02-08-2016, 04:55 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 10:34 AM)Vosur Wrote:  At this point, the thought of either of them becoming president makes me nauseous.

*nauseated.

* unless you mean it will turn you into a noxious gas.

Smartass

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02-08-2016, 04:58 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 04:55 PM)WillHopp Wrote:  
(02-08-2016 10:34 AM)Vosur Wrote:  At this point, the thought of either of them becoming president makes me nauseous.

*nauseated.

* unless you mean it will turn you into a noxious gas.

Smartass
God damn it. Tongue

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02-08-2016, 05:12 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 01:49 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(02-08-2016 01:40 PM)WillHopp Wrote:  But you're missing the point: When the polls and service fit your argument you never went digging to disprove the legitimacy of the polls, only now that everything I said would come to fruition after the DNC did you investigate further to imply her gain was bogus. She's crushing him and it has nothing to do with "rigged" polls.

She's not "crushing him." I just showed you the polls are bogus. I didn't go looking for this on my own. I read an article here and decided to look into it myself, since its a right wing source, and confirmed their findings.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/06/...ead-trump/

I wanted to believe the polls. I still believe some of them are fairly accurate. And those polls show a closer gap within the margin of error so its still a toss up. The ABC CBS CNN polls should be taken with a grain of salt.

Here is another example:

Reuters/Ipsos poll. Of the 1,276 respondents, 628 (49.2%) were Democrats, just 498 (39.0%) were Republicans, and 112 (8.8%) were independents.

Hillary leads that poll by 7%.

Gallup says Americans represent both parties around 28% each, but their poll has 49% democrats.

Polling doesn't work the way you think it does. I can't speak for every poll out here, I'm sure some are pure bullshit, but polling is actually as much a science as an art. And, you can't look at the party count after the fact and draw conclusions. The polling sample is random. They don't know what they are going to get. Good pollsters, like Gallup, build deviations into their models to account for the fact that they take a very small snap shot of the population, but you're reading this the wrong way. The polls aren't saying Clinton because they decided to poll democrats. The polls are saying Clinton because a random sample of people came back showing Clinton. Not getting the result you prefer doesn't mean bias. And, a lean towards one part over the other doesn't show partisanship. That's just how the chips fell.

The larger problem with polls is I think due to how they are conducted they miss a lot of people. Many of them don't call cell numbers, and they miss large swatches of the population. People are also a lot more reluctant to answer questions to strangers because we've all had it drummed into our heads that everyone is trying to scam us (and, often that is true). So, I think polls are increasingly suspect, but not because of political bias but because they haven't yet adjusted for changes in our society.

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