Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
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02-08-2016, 05:20 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
Speaking of Gallup, which is above reproach, it said Trump is the only candidate in history to come out of the RNC with a negative rating in regards to whether people were more or less likely to vote for him after the convention.

In the wake of the Republican and Democratic national conventions, voters are more likely to support Hillary Clinton than Donald Trump, according to a Gallup poll released Monday.
While 36 percent of adults are more likely to support Trump coming out of the GOP’s four-day event, 51 percent are less likely to vote for the real estate mogul after it. The minus-15 net rating is the worst mark for the Republican nominee coming out of the party’s convention since Gallup began asking the question in 1984, though the 1984 and 1992 GOP conventions were excluded. Last month’s Republican convention, however, is the only time respondents were overall less likely to vote for the candidate who was nominated. Previous lows for the Republican nominee were plus-2 with Mitt Romney in 2012 and plus-3 with President George W. Bush in 2004.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/po...016-226507

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02-08-2016, 05:22 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 05:12 PM)BnW Wrote:  
(02-08-2016 01:49 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  She's not "crushing him." I just showed you the polls are bogus. I didn't go looking for this on my own. I read an article here and decided to look into it myself, since its a right wing source, and confirmed their findings.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/06/...ead-trump/

I wanted to believe the polls. I still believe some of them are fairly accurate. And those polls show a closer gap within the margin of error so its still a toss up. The ABC CBS CNN polls should be taken with a grain of salt.

Here is another example:

Reuters/Ipsos poll. Of the 1,276 respondents, 628 (49.2%) were Democrats, just 498 (39.0%) were Republicans, and 112 (8.8%) were independents.

Hillary leads that poll by 7%.

Gallup says Americans represent both parties around 28% each, but their poll has 49% democrats.

Polling doesn't work the way you think it does. I can't speak for every poll out here, I'm sure some are pure bullshit, but polling is actually as much a science as an art. And, you can't look at the party count after the fact and draw conclusions. The polling sample is random. They don't know what they are going to get. Good pollsters, like Gallup, build deviations into their models to account for the fact that they take a very small snap shot of the population, but you're reading this the wrong way. The polls aren't saying Clinton because they decided to poll democrats. The polls are saying Clinton because a random sample of people came back showing Clinton. Not getting the result you prefer doesn't mean bias. And, a lean towards one part over the other doesn't show partisanship. That's just how the chips fell.

The larger problem with polls is I think due to how they are conducted they miss a lot of people. Many of them don't call cell numbers, and they miss large swatches of the population. People are also a lot more reluctant to answer questions to strangers because we've all had it drummed into our heads that everyone is trying to scam us (and, often that is true). So, I think polls are increasingly suspect, but not because of political bias but because they haven't yet adjusted for changes in our society.
I recently read an analysis from a Democratic strategist who expressed concerns about a sort of Shy Tory effect with Trump. He said that people in online and automated phone call polls are more likely to express support for Trump than those with real callers on the phone (by a margin of 3-4%). It'll be interesting to see if that'll lead to another unexpected upset like the Brexit vote.

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02-08-2016, 05:31 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
A lot of what I read about the Brexit outcome pointed to people not even understanding what the hell it meant. So many of them thought it was football-related. LOL.

I think it's safe to say people getting polled here know what Trump is.

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02-08-2016, 05:47 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 04:43 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  
(02-08-2016 04:25 PM)BnW Wrote:  I don't know if it's my biggest concern, but it's certainly on my list of concerns. As I've said many times, I'm not a fan. I think she sucks. I think she's better than him, but I think she sucks. I really wish I had another real choice.

Next POTUS is going to have to deal a shitstorm of maelstrom. There's only one candidate who has the balls to deal with Putin, Kim Jong-Un, al-Hassad, Erdogan, Xi Jinping and it ain't the one with the tiny girly hands. She's got big balls. Mighty big balls.

You lost the plot old man , if she becomes POTUS, all of us should convert to random religions and start praying that there is no war between US and Russia.
Bitch can easily end up killing us all.

Americans insist on keeping Russia as an enemy , even when you can easily make them to be partners , but then somebody might question the military budget and we know that's not good Weeping

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02-08-2016, 06:36 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
Speaking of polls, apparently asking the question, “who do you think is going to win” is much more accurate in predicting the eventual result than asking, “who are you going to vote for”.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/poll...08d33379be

"However, when polls ask voters who they think will win the election rather than whom they plan to vote for, people overwhelmingly believe Clinton will prevail.

If the predictive capacity of the “expectations question” is as accurate as it has been in previous years, Clinton is poised to win this election.”

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02-08-2016, 06:51 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
A number of Republicans are now vocally walking away from him and endorsing her. The money people not only won't help fund him, they won't fund attack adds against her. The Koch brothers made that clear over thee weekend, and there are other Super PACs that seem to be following suit. He does not have the money to compete with her, his own party is starting to run away (and I think the dam will break open on that soon and republicans will leave in droves) and he can't go 24 hours without looking like he's having a mental breakdown.

It's over.

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02-08-2016, 06:53 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 06:51 PM)BnW Wrote:  A number of Republicans are now vocally walking away from him and endorsing her. The money people not only won't help fund him, they won't fund attack adds against her. The Koch brothers made that clear over thee weekend, and there are other Super PACs that seem to be following suit. He does not have the money to compete with her, his own party is starting to run away (and I think the dam will break open on that soon and republicans will leave in droves) and he can't go 24 hours without looking like he's having a mental breakdown.

It's over.

Not sure if it's over yet, but he will have a major melt down soon. And - I told you so from the start. Tongue

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02-08-2016, 06:58 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
No money, no support, and there are people openly questioning his sanity. I won't say it's impossible for him to win, but it's so improbable you are more likely to catch a leprechaun and steal his pot of gold.

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02-08-2016, 07:10 PM (This post was last modified: 02-08-2016 07:13 PM by Lord Dark Helmet.)
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
(02-08-2016 06:51 PM)BnW Wrote:  A number of Republicans are now vocally walking away from him and endorsing her. The money people not only won't help fund him, they won't fund attack adds against her. The Koch brothers made that clear over thee weekend, and there are other Super PACs that seem to be following suit. He does not have the money to compete with her, his own party is starting to run away (and I think the dam will break open on that soon and republicans will leave in droves) and he can't go 24 hours without looking like he's having a mental breakdown.

It's over.

Lets not get carried away. He's only down 4.5 in the RCP 4 person race. That's almost within the margin of error for the polls. He's being outspent 15-1 and just completed only his first month of fundraising where he says he raised 35 million. Last time I looked, last week maybe, the RNC had more money than the DNC.

He's in a pretty good spot considering how little he's spent.

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02-08-2016, 07:18 PM
RE: Clinton leads all FiveThirtyEight poll-election scenarios
He's got no Super PAC support at all and the party looks like they are going to try to focus on the downstream candidates to hold Congress. And, people are starting to abandon ship.

Are guns that important to you that you can ignore he's mentally unhinged?

Things are going to continue to get worse for him, btw. He gave a speech down the road from me today and he's already calling the election "rigged" send threatening blood when he loses.

It is over. He is going to continue to deteriorate. Just watch.

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