Confirmation bias.......using violins
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09-12-2014, 03:02 PM
Confirmation bias.......using violins
This is amusing but also an example of how confirmation bias works. I always wondered what is so special about a Stradivarius violin. LOL. It might not be all that special after all.

http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/...round-two/

http://www.scientificamerican.com/podcas...-12-01-04/

This is an example of a type of confirmation bias using a musical instrument, hearing what we want to hear because we believe what we want to believe. Now maybe there is a real difference between a Stradivarius and a super cheap K-Mart violin ( I don't think they sell violins but you get my drift) however there doesn't seem to be much, if any difference between a Strad and a new, cheaper brand.

I'm trying to tie this into religious beliefs. Not doing a very good job though. Weeping

Shakespeare's Comedy of Errors.... on Donald J. Trump:

He is deformed, crooked, old, and sere,
Ill-fac’d, worse bodied, shapeless every where;
Vicious, ungentle, foolish, blunt, unkind,
Stigmatical in making, worse in mind.
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09-12-2014, 04:05 PM
RE: Confirmation bias.......using violins
I used to play the violin and found the NatGeo article very enlightening!

So, reading from the pulpit an ancient Bilebull or a new one shouldn’t make a difference...the quality is just as poor Cool

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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09-12-2014, 04:38 PM
RE: Confirmation bias.......using violins
Same goes for wine tasting. Some of the most renowned tasters were given white wine with red food coloring added, and described it with flavors associated with red wines. They also couldn't tell the cheap stuff from the expensive stuff.

I hope that the world turns, and things get better. But what I hope most of all is that you understand what I mean when I tell you that, even though I do not know you, and even though I may never meet you, laugh with you, cry with you, or kiss you, I love you. With all my heart, I love you. - V for Vendetta
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09-12-2014, 04:52 PM
Re: Confirmation bias.......using violins
A guy who lived down the street made violins and fiddles. (He swore there was a difference.) He died just before teaching me his skills. But this guy's violins were top quality and were used by bands and orchestras.
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09-12-2014, 07:20 PM
RE: Confirmation bias.......using violins
(09-12-2014 04:38 PM)Smercury44 Wrote:  Same goes for wine tasting. Some of the most renowned tasters were given white wine with red food coloring added, and described it with flavors associated with red wines. They also couldn't tell the cheap stuff from the expensive stuff.

It makes me wonder what confirmation bias I have.

They did a make up test on twins using very expensive makeup on on twin but cheap stuff on the other. No one could tell the difference but some women swore the expensive stuff was better and there was no changing their minds even after seeing the results of the test.

People seem to require that anything of quality must be expensive and I've seen wealthy people be disappointed if they aren't spending a lot of money on something. I provide a service and often work with the very rich ( and it's not what you guys think!) and if I don't charge top dollar they feel, oh I donno, suspicious or something. It's kind of a weird snob appeal mixed with confirmation bias.

Shakespeare's Comedy of Errors.... on Donald J. Trump:

He is deformed, crooked, old, and sere,
Ill-fac’d, worse bodied, shapeless every where;
Vicious, ungentle, foolish, blunt, unkind,
Stigmatical in making, worse in mind.
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09-12-2014, 07:23 PM
RE: Confirmation bias.......using violins
I thought their value was just Uniqueness over anything special. And that they all mysteriously have these qualities perhaps because of the weather patterns of the year or something bizarre.

"Allow there to be a spectrum in all that you see" - Neil Degrasse Tyson
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09-12-2014, 10:10 PM
RE: Confirmation bias.......using violins
Quote:People seem to require that anything of quality must be expensive and I've seen wealthy people be disappointed if they aren't spending a lot of money on something.

That confirmation bias market has been tapped and is being pumped for all it's worth. The price shown is for an 8 ounce bottle.

I wonder what other products or services there are with markups at factorial heights for the deep wallet bias - a guy could make a pretty good living in a line like that - or is that just another bias?
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10-12-2014, 08:44 AM
RE: Confirmation bias.......using violins
(09-12-2014 03:02 PM)dancefortwo Wrote:  This is amusing but also an example of how confirmation bias works. I always wondered what is so special about a Stradivarius violin. LOL. It might not be all that special after all.

...

This is an example of a type of confirmation bias using a musical instrument, hearing what we want to hear because we believe what we want to believe.

So, you're saying that Stradivarius violins might be kinda like monster cables? Yeah, I could see that.


(09-12-2014 03:02 PM)dancefortwo Wrote:  I'm trying to tie this into religious beliefs. Not doing a very good job though. Weeping

That's not even the same thing! We know religion X is the best because the adherents tell us so! Christianity is the only religion* to promote a savior, so, it's the best! Islam has the most followers willing to kill themselves** for their beliefs, so, it's the best! Pastafarianism has the god with the biggest balls***, so, it's the best religion! They're all the best, just like how we were all winners at some of those twisted games in elementary school.


* Not actually true, but whatevs.
** Probably true if counting raw numbers and not rates. I have no idea about rates.
*** Big, meaty balls. What?
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10-12-2014, 12:45 PM
RE: Confirmation bias.......using violins
(09-12-2014 07:20 PM)dancefortwo Wrote:  
(09-12-2014 04:38 PM)Smercury44 Wrote:  Same goes for wine tasting. Some of the most renowned tasters were given white wine with red food coloring added, and described it with flavors associated with red wines. They also couldn't tell the cheap stuff from the expensive stuff.

It makes me wonder what confirmation bias I have.

Regularly asking yourself that question is one of the most important things going.

... this is my signature!
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10-12-2014, 12:53 PM
RE: Confirmation bias.......using violins
A peaceful protest by the New York Philharmonic Orchestra turned ugly today when the police resorted to violins...

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If you're perfect -- Alanis Morissette
(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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