Democrat-Republican Alternation in the White House
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03-08-2016, 07:26 AM
Democrat-Republican Alternation in the White House
I can't be the first person to notice this, but an interesting thing occurred to me this morning. Since World War II, the US has had an almost perfect pattern of the White House switching parties every 8 years. check it out:

1945-1953 Dem. (Roosevelt (Truman)/Truman)
1953-1961 Rep. (Eisenhower/Eisenhower)
1961-1969 Dem. (Kennedy (Johnson)/Johnson)
1969-1977 Rep. (Nixon/Nixon (Ford))
1977-1985 Dem. (Carter)/Rep. (Reagan)
1985-1993 Rep. (Reagan/Bush I)
1993-2001 Dem. (Clinton/Clinton)
2001-2009 Rep. (Bush II/Bush II)
2009-2017 Dem. (Obama/Obama)

The only break in this pattern (bolded above) is the second term of the 1977-1985 period, when the unfortunate timing of the Iran hostage crisis may have cost Carter a second term (although he wasn't a very successful President even before that).

If this pattern holds (and I sure hope it doesn't!), we are "due" for a Republican President. I am not enough of a political analyst to know whether there is a reason for this alternation or whether it's just a statistical anomaly, but I do find it interesting.

Note that it is also the norm for a President to serve two terms. Not counting the cases where a President dies in office (or is ousted, like Nixon) and the VP finishes out the two terms, we have had only two single-term Presidents in 72 years: Carter (sabotaged by the Iran hostage crisis) and Bush I (sabotaged by the economy). I also find this interesting. Apparently, a sitting President has a big advantage in the election unless he has really screwed up (through his own fault or otherwise).
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03-08-2016, 07:30 AM (This post was last modified: 03-08-2016 07:34 AM by Lord Dark Helmet.)
RE: Democrat-Republican Alternation in the White House
Your dates are off a bit. Carter only had one term. So did bush 1.

But generally no party goes on a long stretch.

It says 1977-1985 Dem. A little confusing.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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03-08-2016, 07:41 AM
RE: Democrat-Republican Alternation in the White House
(03-08-2016 07:26 AM)Grasshopper Wrote:  Note that it is also the norm for a President to serve two terms. [...]

The incumbent invariably has an advantage in an election. Maybe it's the psychological effect on the electorate. Better the devil you know.....?

I'm a creationist... I believe that man created God.
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03-08-2016, 07:45 AM
RE: Democrat-Republican Alternation in the White House
My guess would be that a sitting president who hasn't really screwed up is a safer choice than an unknown (in the sense of how they'd be as president); re-election means continuing the status quo and giving a chance to complete longer-term objectives. When two unknowns are the choice then there's more of a focus on what could be done differently since neither candidate has the advantage of a track record.

We can only hope that this time around because the choice isn't democrat vs republican but rather liar vs bigoted, petty, childish, megalomaniacal liar the pattern will be broken.

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03-08-2016, 08:15 AM
RE: Democrat-Republican Alternation in the White House
(03-08-2016 07:30 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Your dates are off a bit. Carter only had one term. So did bush 1.

But generally no party goes on a long stretch.

It says 1977-1985 Dem. A little confusing.

Did you read the whole post? I addressed every one of the things you mention.

The dates are the dates of the actual terms (whoever succeeds Obama will be elected in 2016, but will not take office until 2017).

1977-1985 says Dem./Rep., with Rep. bolded to make sure it gets noticed (although you somehow failed to notice it). I also specifically pointed out that this is an anomaly in the pattern. I also specified that Carter and Bush I were single terms. That was the entire point of my final paragraph!

Reading comprehension ain't what it used to be. Sheesh!
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03-08-2016, 08:30 AM
RE: Democrat-Republican Alternation in the White House
(03-08-2016 08:15 AM)Grasshopper Wrote:  
(03-08-2016 07:30 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Your dates are off a bit. Carter only had one term. So did bush 1.

But generally no party goes on a long stretch.

It says 1977-1985 Dem. A little confusing.

Did you read the whole post? I addressed every one of the things you mention.

The dates are the dates of the actual terms (whoever succeeds Obama will be elected in 2016, but will not take office until 2017).

1977-1985 says Dem./Rep., with Rep. bolded to make sure it gets noticed (although you somehow failed to notice it). I also specifically pointed out that this is an anomaly in the pattern. I also specified that Carter and Bush I were single terms. That was the entire point of my final paragraph!

Reading comprehension ain't what it used to be. Sheesh!

As I said, it was a little confusing. Its still early. Haven't had my coffee yet.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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03-08-2016, 08:33 AM
RE: Democrat-Republican Alternation in the White House
It's like a guy punching himself in the mouth till his fist hurts - then he changes hands..............

And wonders why it doesn't feel any better................

.......................................

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03-08-2016, 08:49 AM
RE: Democrat-Republican Alternation in the White House
(03-08-2016 08:33 AM)onlinebiker Wrote:  It's like a guy punching himself in the mouth till his fist hurts - then he changes hands..............

And wonders why it doesn't feel any better................

There might actually be some truth in that theory.

Big Grin
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03-08-2016, 10:15 AM
RE: Democrat-Republican Alternation in the White House
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03-08-2016, 11:13 AM
RE: Democrat-Republican Alternation in the White House
(03-08-2016 08:33 AM)onlinebiker Wrote:  It's like a guy punching himself in the mouth till his fist hurts - then he changes hands..............

And wonders why it doesn't feel any better................




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