Do the Math
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13-09-2015, 07:16 AM
RE: Do the Math
(13-09-2015 06:59 AM)f stop Wrote:  There was a joke among engineers back in the 1960s, "The rate we are building highways is growing exponentially. The entire planet will be paved with asphalt by the year 2000."

Consider

Facepalm

Atheism: it's not just for communists any more!
America July 4 1776 - November 8 2016 RIP
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13-09-2015, 07:20 AM
RE: Do the Math
   

Using a constant rate of change:

non-religious: (5 – 1)/7 = 0.58
religious: (60 – 73)/7 = –1.86

y = x(0.58) + 5
y = x(–1.86) + 60

There will be the same number of religious and non-religious in just under 18 years, or in 2033.

I can play this game, too. Big Grin

We have enough youth. How about looking for the Fountain of Smart?
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13-09-2015, 07:47 AM
RE: Do the Math
On a slightly related topic...

I was chatting with an Italian catholic a couple of days ago. He's disgusted with The Church but continues to carry the brand.

I said something like "It's a strange club / membership system that doesn't let members de-register".

I then wondered whether there was already a site somewhere where people can declare themselves to be non-members (without having to find some way of being excommunicated). I couldn't find one.

Perhaps we can start one here.

I think it would be useful to have some numbers...

n,nnn,nnn membership claimed by xxx denomination - TTA's count of the de-registered = number of adherents.

Given that both the first two numbers could be exaggerated, it would be the rate of change that might be significant.

Consider

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13-09-2015, 08:34 AM
RE: Do the Math
(13-09-2015 07:47 AM)DLJ Wrote:  ---
I then wondered whether there was already a site somewhere where people can declare themselves to be non-members (without having to find some way of being excommunicated). I couldn't find one.

Perhaps we can start one here.

---

This is a great idea! Thumbsup

It seems part of the struggle for some that palpable and official declaration of separation is very necessary to to break away.

Along with non-membership, one could be provided with a personal de-registration card to keep in the wallet or purse. Shy

A new type of thinking is essential if mankind is to survive and move to higher levels. ~ Albert Einstein
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13-09-2015, 08:58 AM
RE: Do the Math
(13-09-2015 08:34 AM)kim Wrote:  
(13-09-2015 07:47 AM)DLJ Wrote:  ---
I then wondered whether there was already a site somewhere where people can declare themselves to be non-members (without having to find some way of being excommunicated). I couldn't find one.

Perhaps we can start one here.

---

This is a great idea! Thumbsup

It seems part of the struggle for some that palpable and official declaration of separation is very necessary to to break away.

Along with non-membership, one could be provided with a personal de-registration card to keep in the wallet or purse. Shy

Palpable, yes, but not papalble. A card-carrying cardinal-discarding?
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13-09-2015, 09:01 AM
RE: Do the Math
(13-09-2015 08:34 AM)kim Wrote:  
(13-09-2015 07:47 AM)DLJ Wrote:  ---
I then wondered whether there was already a site somewhere where people can declare themselves to be non-members (without having to find some way of being excommunicated). I couldn't find one.

Perhaps we can start one here.

---

This is a great idea! Thumbsup

It seems part of the struggle for some that palpable and official declaration of separation is very necessary to to break away.

Along with non-membership, one could be provided with a personal de-registration card to keep in the wallet or purse. Shy

Nice.

Could you do me a favour and start the thread, please?

I thought about doing it myself but I don't have your level of credibility ... my threads are rarely taken seriously and get derailed by post #2 (I'm looking at you Dog!).

Big Grin

The thread would need to be a long-running one in order to amass significant numbers. Or maybe it can be done as a poll?

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13-09-2015, 09:15 AM
RE: Do the Math
My threads notoriously stop at around page 3 ... and that's on a good day. Shy

A new type of thinking is essential if mankind is to survive and move to higher levels. ~ Albert Einstein
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13-09-2015, 09:22 AM
RE: Do the Math
No no no, no no.... It's a bad idea...


DON'T do it......

..

...

Uh...

Oh...

Math....


I thought it said meth.....


,,,,,


Nevermind...

.......................................

The difference between prayer and masturbation - is when a guy is through masturbating - he has something to show for his efforts.
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13-09-2015, 01:43 PM
RE: Do the Math
(13-09-2015 06:59 AM)f stop Wrote:  
(12-09-2015 11:11 PM)Reltzik Wrote:  Actually my question was more "how do we know that this growth curve is exponential rather than linear, quadratic, cubic, logarithmic, logistic, or something else based on just two data points?"
We don't know. I simply assumed exponential growth/decay because in many real world problems growth/decay turns out to be exponential. It could well be, and probably is, something else. Sheer randomness is a possibility.

Or, alternatively, we can do regression analysis. Let p denote the percentage of individuals who are atheist, then we can plot t vs log(p)* and perform linear regression. We'd need more data points though, preferably one for each year.

That said, the growth can't be exponential except as an approximation; true exponential growth would imply that percent atheists would eventually exceed 100%. It could be, however, the number of non-atheists is exponential decay, such that the growth of atheists follows a 1-exponential decay.

Point is, with more data, we can actually probe what the growth curve might look like.
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13-09-2015, 01:48 PM
RE: Do the Math
(13-09-2015 07:47 AM)DLJ Wrote:  I said something like "It's a strange club / membership system that doesn't let members de-register".

I then wondered whether there was already a site somewhere where people can declare themselves to be non-members (without having to find some way of being excommunicated). I couldn't find one.

Perhaps we can start one here.

I think it would be useful to have some numbers...

n,nnn,nnn membership claimed by xxx denomination - TTA's count of the de-registered = number of adherents.

Given that both the first two numbers could be exaggerated, it would be the rate of change that might be significant.

Consider

Wouldn't matter. Alla's gonna baptize you even after you die. Damn Mormons are gonna claim you even if you've never heard of them. They're even shiftier than the Jews.

There is only one really serious philosophical question, and that is suicide. -Camus
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