Does ISIS have a death wish?
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14-11-2015, 12:41 PM
Does ISIS have a death wish?
I'm not claiming to be an expert on extremist movements, but I do know that what separates ISIS from the others in the Middle East right now is the scope of their political aspirations. They have "state" in the title, ISIS is yearning to create an organized state with an administrative leader, the caliphate, and want him to assert influence on Muslims across the globe.

So what exactly gave ISIS the bright idea to start antagonizing militarily superior nations? If you're Al-Qaida, that's one thing, antagonizing miltarily superior nations in the name of Islam seemed to be their only purpose so acting as a loose bundle of networked cells rather than an organized force allowed them to piddle around without getting completely eradicated by the opposition (although they are definitely weakened, when was the last Al-Qaida did something big?)

But ISIS is operating differently, they aren't just a loose network of insurgent cells, there is actual organization, and political leaders. That's much more concrete targets to neutralize in the handbook of war. Antagonizing miltarily superior nations so they come fuck up your shit is not a particularly efficient means of achieving statehood. Their caliphate would be captured or executed and their influence and control over regions would be reduced to almost naught. It's kind of difficult to crystallize your statehood when you've been driven into the caves.

How exactly is ISIS expecting these strings of attacks on foreign soil to actually work out in their favor? It looks more like a good invitation to get your statehood plans steamrolled over.

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14-11-2015, 12:45 PM
RE: Does ISIS have a death wish?
I think the step too far is in assuming there is an actual worldwide chain of command. Locally, in the theatres coming closest to (but still not being) conventional warfare? Yes. Globally? Among self-radicalised fellow travellers? Not so much, I think...

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14-11-2015, 12:48 PM
RE: Does ISIS have a death wish?
(14-11-2015 12:45 PM)cjlr Wrote:  I think the step too far is in assuming there is an actual worldwide chain of command. Locally, in the theatres coming closest to (but still not being) conventional warfare? Yes. Globally? Among self-radicalised fellow travellers? Not so much, I think...

I don't mean they have a conventional command chain globally, but certainly in their base of operations in Syria and Iraq. They want to have global influence, but if your main region of control gets smashed to tatters, good luck exerting anymore influence than Al-Qaida does at the moment. They want more control and influence than that, so this is still a terrible idea on their part.

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14-11-2015, 01:00 PM
RE: Does ISIS have a death wish?
(14-11-2015 12:48 PM)Tartarus Sauce Wrote:  
(14-11-2015 12:45 PM)cjlr Wrote:  I think the step too far is in assuming there is an actual worldwide chain of command. Locally, in the theatres coming closest to (but still not being) conventional warfare? Yes. Globally? Among self-radicalised fellow travellers? Not so much, I think...

I don't mean they have a conventional command chain globally, but certainly in their base of operations in Syria and Iraq. They want to have global influence, but if your main region of control gets smashed to tatters, good luck exerting anymore influence than Al-Qaida does at the moment. They want more control and influence than that, so this is still a terrible idea on their part.

Plenty of people through history have taken the hits of victory disease and a belief in divine protection.

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14-11-2015, 01:11 PM
RE: Does ISIS have a death wish?
(14-11-2015 01:00 PM)cjlr Wrote:  
(14-11-2015 12:48 PM)Tartarus Sauce Wrote:  I don't mean they have a conventional command chain globally, but certainly in their base of operations in Syria and Iraq. They want to have global influence, but if your main region of control gets smashed to tatters, good luck exerting anymore influence than Al-Qaida does at the moment. They want more control and influence than that, so this is still a terrible idea on their part.

Plenty of people through history have taken the hits of victory disease and a belief in divine protection.

I guess it is a bit much to expect people who routinely slaughter innocents and blow themselves as a means of seeking personal glory with their deity to be efficient at cost-benefit analysis, but I get the feeling that groups like Hezbollah and Hamas are much shrewder than this when striving towards their goals. I don't think any Islamic extremist group has been this successful at mobilizing and gaining area control, the Syrian civil War and devastated infrastructure of northern Iraq made for particularly vulnerable power vacuums which they easily ascended. But these successes seem to have just emboldened them to make more boneheaded decisions, not more calculated ones.

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14-11-2015, 01:13 PM
RE: Does ISIS have a death wish?



Don't Live each day like it's your last. Live each day like you have 541 days after that one where every choice you make will have lasting implications to you and the world around you. ~ Tim Minchin
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14-11-2015, 01:19 PM
RE: Does ISIS have a death wish?
(14-11-2015 01:11 PM)Tartarus Sauce Wrote:  
(14-11-2015 01:00 PM)cjlr Wrote:  Plenty of people through history have taken the hits of victory disease and a belief in divine protection.

I guess it is a bit much to expect people who routinely slaughter innocents and blow themselves as a means of seeking personal glory with their deity to be efficient at cost-benefit analysis, but I get the feeling that groups like Hezbollah and Hamas are much shrewder than this when striving towards their goals. I don't think any Islamic extremist group has been this successful at mobilizing and gaining area control, the Syrian civil War and devastated infrastructure of northern Iraq made for particularly vulnerable power vacuums which they easily ascended. But these successes seem to have just emboldened them to make more boneheaded decisions, not more calculated ones.

Well, yes. That's where the term victory disease comes from!

It has, historically, been more likely in totalitarian groups. ISIS are totalitarian; Hezbollah is not - or at least, official line is not, and if the bosses know enough to at least say that it's self-fulfilling to a degree.

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14-11-2015, 01:44 PM
RE: Does ISIS have a death wish?
You know, they could just be batshit crazy murderers.

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14-11-2015, 01:58 PM (This post was last modified: 14-11-2015 02:06 PM by Deltabravo.)
RE: Does ISIS have a death wish?
One of the Paris terrorists got into Europe by crossing the Syrian border with Turkey and then posing as a refugee and crossing a small bit of sea to get to a Greek Island. From there he made his way to Paris.

What is happening is that as IS is being hammered in Syria and Iraq, the Jihadists are allowed to cross into Turkey and then they go to Europe with all the other refugees. This means that there may be thousands of these Muslim terrorists all over Europe.

The big problem has always been that Turkish President Erdogan is trying to revive the Islamic Caliphate and make Turkey the most powerful Islamic country in the world, which it used to be when it was the center of the Ottoman Empire which conquered the Roman Empire centered in Constantinople in 1452. The Turks consider that they are "really important" and that the collapse of their Empire after WWI was all a big mistake.

Since we in the West equate Turkey with a meal at Christmas, we have overlooked this threat. Turkey was becoming more westernized, is a member of Nato and was trying to get into the European Union. But the Muslim population of the country has grown due to poor Arab Muslims in the south of the country breeding like rabbits. This means that Erdogan has decided to appeal to Muslims to become President.

Erdogan's daughter ran a hosptial on the Syrian border where ISIL fighters were patched up and Turkey allowed trade with ISIL across its border. Erdogan is a psycho and wants to be the world leader of Islam. He had, therefore, no interest in closing Turkey's border with Syria so all these ISIS Jihadists have had every opportunity to escape into Turkey and then disperse throughout Europe and bring havoc to the "Christian" west. Turks see Europe as a "Christian club" and are bitter because many of them have to go to Germany for work but they can't live in Europe because they aren't member of the EU. It's a major problem and there is now a growing anti-European feeling in Turkey so this sort of problem plays into Erdogan's dream of being a world Islamic Caliph/leader.

Expect more of these attacks. Erdogan would be quite happy to see the West in a state of terror while he plots the rise of his Islamic Empire.

The other thing that gives this movement its focus is Islam itself. It has an Abrahamic view of god as a selfish prick who rewards those who slaughter infidels with lots of sex in the afterlife. Jihadists are promised 72 virgins when they die so they gladly blow themselves up because after having no sex at all in their lives because they treat women like slaves, they become sex starved lunatics.

Which is why people in the west are fools who think that "freedom of religion" means that people who are members of moronic cults like Islam should be pandered to and treated in the same way as westerners who have been through a religious reformation and many wars to achieve freedom "from" religious dogma.
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14-11-2015, 02:02 PM
RE: Does ISIS have a death wish?
(14-11-2015 01:44 PM)Minimalist Wrote:  You know, they could just be batshit crazy murderers.

They are, and that trait of theirs is going to end up being a significant obstacle to their overarching goals, thankfully.

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