East Wind from China
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15-04-2017, 02:35 AM
East Wind from China
Hi,

The Chinese are not a boastful people, but they can be very busy. An example of this is the new ‘East Wind ‘ DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile. Capable of striking anywhere in the USA within 30 minutes, each 80 ton missile is capable of carrying 6-12 warheads.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPk5dlPY54Y

https://www.rt.com/news/340359-china-tes...c-missile/

It is interesting to note that the Chinese have chosen to follow the Russian strategy of MIRV technology, relying on speed and spread to overcome an American missile shield. It is likely that they will also employ an array of dummy warheads in the payload, designed to cheat the American missile defences into useless targetting, while the majority of MIRV warheads successfully reach their targets. Chinese ICBMs have previously had a warhead output of 5000 kilotons (Hiroshima was 17 kilotons) so that is likely the lowest output we will see on the new ‘East Wind’.

The Russian ‘Satan II’ missiles (7,500 kilotons) are coming into operation around 2018, with the ‘East Wind’ somewhat earlier, probably currently. It will be interesting to see the Western responses to this upgraded strike capability from China and Russia; what might we expect?

D.
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15-04-2017, 03:29 AM
RE: East Wind from China
(15-04-2017 02:35 AM)Dworkin Wrote:  It is interesting to note that the Chinese have chosen to follow the Russian strategy of MIRV technology, relying on speed and spread to overcome an American missile shield. It is likely that they will also employ an array of dummy warheads in the payload, designed to cheat the American missile defences into useless targetting, while the majority of MIRV warheads successfully reach their targets. Chinese ICBMs have previously had a warhead output of 5000 kilotons (Hiroshima was 17 kilotons) so that is likely the lowest output we will see on the new ‘East Wind’.

Those approaches are optimal, and have been used by America and the USSR/Russia for decades. That's why SDI, unworkable as it was at the time, was designed around the idea of killing missiles before re-entry -- such a defense would render MIRV/decoy technology nugatory

(15-04-2017 02:35 AM)Dworkin Wrote:  The Russian ‘Satan II’ missiles (7,500 kilotons) are coming into operation around 2018, with the ‘East Wind’ somewhat earlier, probably currently. It will be interesting to see the Western responses to this upgraded strike capability from China and Russia; what might we expect?

D.

The continuance of deterrence is my bet.
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15-04-2017, 03:51 AM
RE: East Wind from China
(15-04-2017 03:29 AM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:  The continuance of deterrence is my bet.

But it takes only one idiot in power, incapable to comprehend what's at stake and that actions may have consequences.

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15-04-2017, 04:33 AM
RE: East Wind from China
(15-04-2017 03:29 AM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:  Those approaches are optimal, and have been used by America and the USSR/Russia for decades. That's why SDI, unworkable as it was at the time, was designed around the idea of killing missiles before re-entry -- such a defense would render MIRV/decoy technology nugatory

Thump,

The American system relies on kinetic impact only. The defensive device has to hit a hypersonic ICBM square on before re-entry. We might imagine trying to hit a speeding bullet with another bullet.

Added to this is the capability of the MIRV ICBMs to change course erratically during flight, making the targeting even more precarious. Once the missiles have delivered the MIRV packages, the likelihood of safe arrival on US soil is much increased.

Of course, we will never know for sure until the systems are deployed, hence the "deterrence".

A.
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15-04-2017, 04:38 AM
RE: East Wind from China
(15-04-2017 03:51 AM)abaris Wrote:  
(15-04-2017 03:29 AM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:  The continuance of deterrence is my bet.

But it takes only one idiot in power, incapable to comprehend what's at stake and that actions may have consequences.

abaris,

Quite so, which is the implicit point of the OP.

D.
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15-04-2017, 10:45 AM
RE: East Wind from China
(15-04-2017 04:33 AM)Dworkin Wrote:  Thump,

The American system relies on kinetic impact only. The defensive device has to hit a hypersonic ICBM square on before re-entry. We might imagine trying to hit a speeding bullet with another bullet.

We can do that fairly reliably nowadays when the target is as big as a missile.

(15-04-2017 04:33 AM)Dworkin Wrote:  Added to this is the capability of the MIRV ICBMs to change course erratically during flight, making the targeting even more precarious. Once the missiles have delivered the MIRV packages, the likelihood of safe arrival on US soil is much increased.

Yeah, that's why I referred to SDI as "unworkable". I only brought it out in order to point out that what you seem to think of as new technology is actually decades old.

(15-04-2017 03:51 AM)abaris Wrote:  
(15-04-2017 03:29 AM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:  The continuance of deterrence is my bet.

But it takes only one idiot in power, incapable to comprehend what's at stake and that actions may have consequences.

Of course. This very point is why so many Americans are worried about Iran gaining nukes, too.
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15-04-2017, 01:41 PM
RE: East Wind from China
(15-04-2017 10:45 AM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:  Yeah, that's why I referred to SDI as "unworkable". I only brought it out in order to point out that what you seem to think of as new technology is actually decades old.

Thump,

We are not disagreeing. To me 'East Wind' is about upgrades and new kids on the block. Of course the Yanks will sink billions into Star Wars silver bullet, but it will end up like Neo near the end of Matrix - "There are just too many".

The alternative is honest treaties and peace, but we all know that can't happen. No

D.
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15-04-2017, 02:51 PM
RE: East Wind from China
We have to start by disarming ourselves as a gesture of good will.
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15-04-2017, 09:32 PM
RE: East Wind from China
(15-04-2017 01:41 PM)Dworkin Wrote:  Thump,

We are not disagreeing. To me 'East Wind' is about upgrades and new kids on the block. Of course the Yanks will sink billions into Star Wars silver bullet, but it will end up like Neo near the end of Matrix - "There are just too many".

Perhaps. Or perhaps we'll opt for point-defense of valuable targets.

Again, I think the ultimate defenses are deterrence and diplomacy.

(15-04-2017 01:41 PM)Dworkin Wrote:  The alternative is honest treaties and peace, but we all know that can't happen. No

D.

Statecraft and honesty are not happy bedfellows.
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15-04-2017, 10:45 PM
East Wind from China
(15-04-2017 02:51 PM)ImFred Wrote:  We have to start by disarming ourselves as a gesture of good will.


I hope you aren't serious.
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