Economic recovery: you're doing it wrong
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01-12-2013, 08:26 AM
RE: Economic recovery: you're doing it wrong
(01-12-2013 06:51 AM)NoSkyDaddy Wrote:  Ok squirrel, just a misunderstanding. I agree with that. As far as indicators, I think they're all off. The stock market is a speculative gambling house, measures of inflation have been tampered with and do not reflect the true rate. I guess what I'm looking for in an increase in middle class, union equivalent jobs, and a demonstrable increase in working class buying power. As far as recognizing over inflated investments frankksj's advice is pretty sound.
But how does one recognize over-inflated investments? Anyone who
can recognize this can make a lot of money in the stock market. Even the
best value investors, like Warren Buffet, are often wrong (but I guess
they can make a decent living...)
If we had an objective measure that could recognize over-inflated investments,
then everyone would recognize it and the market would correct itself.
Indicators such as consumer confidence index reflect working class buying power more closely, but those are also highly correlated to the S&P500 index, and have gone up during the Obama administration.

But you are right about too much gambling on wall street. I am not against gambling, as long as you don't gamble more money than you have, or with
other people's money. Because of deregulations, some of the day traders
have found all kinds of tricks to leverage to the extreme in often a conceiled way
and this destabilizes the market. Also, I would favor an increase
of capital gains tax.
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01-12-2013, 11:05 AM
RE: Economic recovery: you're doing it wrong
[Image: ea2c801f3fd48e8edfbf0af8ba6d766e.jpg]

The beginning of wisdom is to call things by their right names. - Chinese Proverb
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01-12-2013, 11:18 AM
RE: Economic recovery: you're doing it wrong
(01-12-2013 08:26 AM)black_squirrel Wrote:  Also, I would favor an increase of capital gains tax.

Now you're doing it again. Look at my post #44 here:

http://www.thethinkingatheist.com/forum/...pid=399259

I include charts and links proving that every time the government has raised the capital gains tax, people simply stop investing so that the government takes in LESS tax revenue. The money (and jobs) just get sent overseas where the tax burden is less, and the economy tanks. You don't dispute any of that. You'll see not one Keynesian/liberal responded to my post and said the data was wrong or there was a flaw in the analysis. Nope, it was completely ignored. Head in the sand, hands over the ears, “I'm not listening”. And now AGAIN you're repeating the same point as though it wasn't already disproven. This is why it is SOOO dangerous when these same Keynesians/liberals who ignore all the facts, and no matter how bad the track record they still insist they're right and know best how everything should work, they get into positions of power and then use threats of violence to coerce people into doing it their way. The results are devastating.

Regarding the stock market, I'm not suggesting I have some special insight.

My point is that Keynesians/liberals keep regurgitating the same old talking points that have already been thoroughly shot down. They don't offer rebuttals. They just cover their ears and say “I'm not listening” living in their own fantasy world.

Case in point was when they said that if the stock market is doing good, the economy is doing good. We had this debate in the late 90's when the guys on your side insisted Clinton was doing an amazing job of growing a thriving economy, and they were laughing at the libertarians running Switzerland because the Swiss had the slowest growth during the late 90's. HOWEVER, a few years later the stock market came crashing down, all the gains of the 90's were lost, whereas in Switzerland they didn't have the big crash. Their stock market kept growing at a steady rate, building real value, so that in the end, the average Swiss family ended up accumulating 7x the wealth of the average American family. Yet, the Keynesians/liberals don't address this. When it all came crashing down, they didn't say to the Austrians “Yeah you were right that it was just a bubble”. Nope they STILL keep saying that if the stock market is booming, that means the economy is doing great, like you did yesterday.

It's especially laughable because in the 90's the Keynesians/liberals were predicting a terrible depression because the GOP refused to raise the debt ceiling, forcing drastic cuts and a massive government shutdown. You guys said the government drives the economy, so the shutdown would devastate the economy. But then a few years later you were bragging about, and taking credit for, how great the economy was doing! What happened? If the government really does drive the economy like you said a couple years earlier and the shutdown was responsible for the economy that followed, well then it's clear we need to shutdown the government permanently. If you guys understood what was going on, how did you get it SO terrible wrong when you predicted the GOP shutdown of the mid 90's was driving the economy over a cliff? They don't address it. Instead a decade later, when the exact same thing happened and the GOP again took over the House and refused to raise the debt ceiling and forced a government shutdown under identical circumstances, they STILL just keep repeating the same tired line of the mid 90's, that this was a fiscal cliff that would decimate the economy. They filtered from their memory that the current situation was identical in every way to the situation in 1995, and that their “fiscal cliff” predictions were dead wrong.
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01-12-2013, 02:17 PM
RE: Economic recovery: you're doing it wrong
(01-12-2013 11:18 AM)frankksj Wrote:  
(01-12-2013 08:26 AM)black_squirrel Wrote:  Also, I would favor an increase of capital gains tax.

Now you're doing it again. Look at my post #44 here:

http://www.thethinkingatheist.com/forum/...pid=399259

I include charts and links proving that every time the government has raised the capital gains tax, people simply stop investing so that the government takes in LESS tax revenue. The money (and jobs) just get sent overseas where the tax burden is less, and the economy tanks. You don't dispute any of that. You'll see not one Keynesian/liberal responded to my post and said the data was wrong or there was a flaw in the analysis. Nope, it was completely ignored. Head in the sand, hands over the ears, “I'm not listening”. And now AGAIN you're repeating the same point as though it wasn't already disproven. This is why it is SOOO dangerous when these same Keynesians/liberals who ignore all the facts, and no matter how bad the track record they still insist they're right and know best how everything should work, they get into positions of power and then use threats of violence to coerce people into doing it their way. The results are devastating.
You have proven no such thing. A corrolation does not mean causation.
The increases of capital gains taxes historically have gone hand in hand with increases of other income taxes. An overall increase in taxes has a negative effect on the economy. My suggestion is to increase capital gains taxes, and decrease income taxes for the working and middle class at the same time. This way, you make capital more expensive and labor cheaper, which results in more hiring, and more consumption.
[/quote]





Regarding the stock market, I'm not suggesting I have some special insight.

My point is that Keynesians/liberals keep regurgitating the same old talking points that have already been thoroughly shot down. They don't offer rebuttals. They just cover their ears and say “I'm not listening” living in their own fantasy world.

Case in point was when they said that if the stock market is doing good, the economy is doing good. We had this debate in the late 90's when the guys on your side insisted Clinton was doing an amazing job of growing a thriving economy, and they were laughing at the libertarians running Switzerland because the Swiss had the slowest growth during the late 90's.
[/quote]
Why do you always bring up Switzerland? The US is not Switzerland. Besides, was Switzerland really run by libertarians in the 90s???
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01-12-2013, 02:45 PM
RE: Economic recovery: you're doing it wrong
(01-12-2013 02:17 PM)black_squirrel Wrote:  You have proven no such thing. A corrolation does not mean causation.
The increases of capital gains taxes historically have gone hand in hand with increases of other income taxes. An overall increase in taxes has a negative effect on the economy. My suggestion is to increase capital gains taxes, and decrease income taxes for the working and middle class at the same time. This way, you make capital more expensive and labor cheaper, which results in more hiring, and more consumption.

Would you also argue that raising taxes on corporations would produce the same result?


Also, on what fundamental moral principle do you base your presumption that an arbitrary group of individuals has the right (the obligation, even) to take by force that which one man earns and hand it to another(always keeping a large portion for themselves, of course)? Moreover, if you can square this theft of the rich and giving to the poor but at the same time despise it when the rich use the state to steal from the poor, how is it that your moral principle can apply in one instance and not another?

In my understanding, human beings are all subject to the same moral rules. Otherwise, there are no moral rules... only opinions with guns.

The beginning of wisdom is to call things by their right names. - Chinese Proverb
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01-12-2013, 03:00 PM
RE: Economic recovery: you're doing it wrong
BB!

Where've you been?

... this is my signature!
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01-12-2013, 04:03 PM
RE: Economic recovery: you're doing it wrong
(01-12-2013 02:17 PM)black_squirrel Wrote:  You have proven no such thing. A corrolation does not mean causation.
The increases of capital gains taxes historically have gone hand in hand with increases of other income taxes. An overall increase in taxes has a negative effect on the economy.

Given that there is a strong correlation, isn't the burden on you to prove there's no causation? You haven't even tried to prove there's no causation, yet you want to bust in change things, and if you're wrong, you'll fuck up the economy and cause a lot of suffering.

The reason I believe there's causation is because it simply makes sense. Labor is harder to move. If you raise the taxes in California, packing up and moving to Nevada takes some effort. However, if California raises the capital gains tax, all you have to do is login to your online banking and move your money out of California. Same thing at the national level.

Here's a question for you... Liberals complain about the $20 trillion of capital that's been taken out of the economy and put in tax havens. If the US had no capital gains tax, like Switzerland, Hong Kong, Netherlands, etc., how much of the $20 trillion would have stayed in the US? Surely you can't say 'nothing', because if there was no capital gains tax, there'd be no incentive to move capital offshore.

Please let me know your non-binding opinion... How much of that $20 trillion of capital would still be in the US if the US had no capital gains tax?

(01-12-2013 02:17 PM)black_squirrel Wrote:  Why do you always bring up Switzerland? The US is not Switzerland. Besides, was Switzerland really run by libertarians in the 90s???

I mention it because it shows the system would work in the US. After all Switzerland merely copied it from the US. Their constitution was copied from the US constitution. The only difference is they stuck to it and the US abandoned it. Liberals like to point to Sweden as a model. But Sweden is a homogeneous, nearly 100% liberal country where EVERYBODY is willing to pay 50+% in taxes. It would never work in the US. Switzerland, however, is a very diverse country, with an even higher percentage of immigrants than the US, 4 different languages with their own cultures, and an extremely divided population with strong liberals and strong conservatives. And the model doesn't require solving the complex problem of how to scale something up, since leaving autonomous control at the local level is automatically scale-able. And, yes, throughout the 20th century Switzerland followed the classic liberal (libertarian) system. That's how, with no natural resources, not even an ocean, they were able to go from being a poor country to the richest, and how they eliminated poverty.
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01-12-2013, 05:11 PM
Tongue RE: Economic recovery: you're doing it wrong
(01-12-2013 03:00 PM)cjlr Wrote:  BB!

Where've you been?

LOL. I opened a car audio shop and have been working seven days a week for the past several months. Or more... But today is the first day I've had to actually not do a damn thing (other than mow), so I decided to pop in and see what all you other devil worshippers were up to. Evil_monster

And as usual... people are still arguing over who should be holding the guns and who they should be pointing them at.

Statists never seem to even think of the possibility that no one should be pointing guns at anyone else. Tongue


How you been??

The beginning of wisdom is to call things by their right names. - Chinese Proverb
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01-12-2013, 11:15 PM
RE: Economic recovery: you're doing it wrong
The question is flawed. You say that "keynsians" say. The world isn't just split into keynsians and free market. Let me remind you that if you think the free market is the one and only solution, let me remind you that for most of human history, the form of government was none, or autocratic. With almost NO market regulation.

The answer isn't either socialism or the free market. You're searching for an easy solution where there is none. Like most modern countries we (in america) are a mixed economy.

Also, you have to look at history. The country under Democrats has grown at a much higher rate than under Republicans

http://www.foxbusiness.com/investing/201...democrats/
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02-12-2013, 09:21 AM
RE: Economic recovery: you're doing it wrong
(01-12-2013 11:15 PM)Ryanshidyak Wrote:  The question is flawed. You say that "keynsians" say. The world isn't just split into keynsians and free market.

As shown in your post there actually is a clear split between on the one hand a group who uses logic and reason to understand complex problems (Austrians), vs a group which ignores logic and reason and instead combs through mountains of empirical data until they find some that with careful manipulation and twisted thinking can be used to support their position.

(01-12-2013 11:15 PM)Ryanshidyak Wrote:  Let me remind you that if you think the free market is the one and only solution, let me remind you that for most of human history, the form of government was none, or autocratic. With almost NO market regulation.

Yeah, but what libertarian-critics always forget is we are NOT anti-government. We are pro-government, and anti-violence. The great divide between us and the rest is we think government should be a tool to PREVENT violence, whereas the other side sees government's role as to CREATE violence.

So, when you point to periods in time where there's been violent societies under tyrannical rule and the people have suffered, you don't seem to realize you're proving libertarians right all along. Look to the periods in time when governments have worked the way libertarians want, defending individual property and protecting them from coercion to exercise free will. Whenever that system has been implemented, it's been hugely successful.
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