Europe, Russia and Trump
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26-07-2016, 06:11 AM
RE: Europe, Russia and Trump
(26-07-2016 04:33 AM)morondog Wrote:  Also interesting if you follow the link to his answers to some of the comments is that Putin's invasion of the Crimea almost exactly parallels German invasion of the Sudetenland, right down to alleged abuses of ethnic Germans being used as the pretext for the war and an overwhelming vote in favour of the German occupation shortly after it became fact.

I remember it being hot topic in Poland, it was discussed even during University lectures that I attended. I'm however not convinced that such comparison is valid. There is not bad article on the subject.

And if you're interested in Putin internal and foreign policy then I recommend Putin's Wars. The Rise of Russia's New Imperialism.

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26-07-2016, 07:41 AM (This post was last modified: 26-07-2016 07:44 AM by morondog.)
RE: Europe, Russia and Trump
(26-07-2016 06:11 AM)Szuchow Wrote:  
(26-07-2016 04:33 AM)morondog Wrote:  Also interesting if you follow the link to his answers to some of the comments is that Putin's invasion of the Crimea almost exactly parallels German invasion of the Sudetenland, right down to alleged abuses of ethnic Germans being used as the pretext for the war and an overwhelming vote in favour of the German occupation shortly after it became fact.

I remember it being hot topic in Poland, it was discussed even during University lectures that I attended. I'm however not convinced that such comparison is valid. There is not bad article on the subject.

And if you're interested in Putin internal and foreign policy then I recommend Putin's Wars. The Rise of Russia's New Imperialism.

Well, the "exactly parallels" was a bit much I guess. But the fact of
  • abuse of ethnic German minorities being used as a pretext.
  • a vote being held post-annexation which turned out massively in favour of the annexation.
  • international community standing by wringing its hands.

seem like pretty close parallels to me. Sure, Hitler was craftier than Putin or maybe rather, had different objectives. Hitler had the Czechoslovakian army to contend with who had a well fortified position. By adopting this strategy he actually neutralised them as a fighting force. He also was able to force the concession past the weak governments of Britain, France et al because they were so desperate to avoid war. Putin on the other hand IMO was looking rather to provoke NATO and demonstrate that they're too feeble to actually do anything about Russian aggression.

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(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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26-07-2016, 07:49 AM (This post was last modified: 26-07-2016 07:53 AM by GirlyMan.)
RE: Europe, Russia and Trump
(26-07-2016 03:22 AM)Vosur Wrote:  
(25-07-2016 08:44 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  Then why is the FBI investigating whether Russia was involved?
I'm not in the FBI, so I don't know. Tongue

It's probably because "There's no evidence that Russia was involved in it whatsoever." They like to start investigations without any evidence whatsoever. They're just practicing to be the Gestapo in case Trump is elected.

#sigh
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26-07-2016, 08:09 AM
RE: Europe, Russia and Trump
(26-07-2016 07:41 AM)morondog Wrote:  Well, the "exactly parallels" was a bit much I guess. But the fact of
  • abuse of ethnic German minorities being used as a pretext.
  • a vote being held post-annexation which turned out massively in favour of the annexation.
  • international community standing by wringing its hands.

If we speak about 1938 then in Czechoslovakia case international community actively helped Hitler in his annexation. It wasn't case just wringing hands it was active help. As for abuse - it looks like generic pretext to me. USSR too invaded Poland lands in name of defending Ukrainians and Belorussians.

(26-07-2016 07:41 AM)morondog Wrote:  seem like pretty close parallels to me. Sure, Hitler was craftier than Putin or maybe rather, had different objectives. Hitler had the Czechoslovakian army to contend with who had a well fortified position. By adopting this strategy he actually neutralised them as a fighting force. He also was able to force the concession past the weak governments of Britain, UK et al because they were so desperate to avoid war. Putin on the other hand IMO was looking rather to provoke NATO and demonstrate that they're too feeble to actually do anything about Russian aggression.

Hitler wanted a war according to Ian Kershaw Hitler 1936-1945: Nemesis, Putin not so much I think.

It's something that looks similar as evidenced by media reactions but I'm not quite sold on the similarity idea. But quite some time has passed since I read something about both Crimea and Czechoslovakia so some parallels could escape me.

The first revolt is against the supreme tyranny of theology, of the phantom of God. As long as we have a master in heaven, we will be slaves on earth.

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26-07-2016, 11:25 AM
RE: Europe, Russia and Trump
(26-07-2016 08:09 AM)Szuchow Wrote:  
(26-07-2016 07:41 AM)morondog Wrote:  Well, the "exactly parallels" was a bit much I guess. But the fact of
  • abuse of ethnic German minorities being used as a pretext.
  • a vote being held post-annexation which turned out massively in favour of the annexation.
  • international community standing by wringing its hands.

If we speak about 1938 then in Czechoslovakia case international community actively helped Hitler in his annexation. It wasn't case just wringing hands it was active help. As for abuse - it looks like generic pretext to me. USSR too invaded Poland lands in name of defending Ukrainians and Belorussians.

(26-07-2016 07:41 AM)morondog Wrote:  seem like pretty close parallels to me. Sure, Hitler was craftier than Putin or maybe rather, had different objectives. Hitler had the Czechoslovakian army to contend with who had a well fortified position. By adopting this strategy he actually neutralised them as a fighting force. He also was able to force the concession past the weak governments of Britain, UK et al because they were so desperate to avoid war. Putin on the other hand IMO was looking rather to provoke NATO and demonstrate that they're too feeble to actually do anything about Russian aggression.

Hitler wanted a war according to Ian Kershaw Hitler 1936-1945: Nemesis, Putin not so much I think.

It's something that looks similar as evidenced by media reactions but I'm not quite sold on the similarity idea. But quite some time has passed since I read something about both Crimea and Czechoslovakia so some parallels could escape me.

Putin is a psychopath. I agree he doesn't want war, he took the risk of invading Crimea because he knew he could get away with it. At the same time he happily rubbed everyone else's noses in their own shit. When there's a psychopath in control of a nuclear armed nation other leaders tread carefully. No one's prepared to launch a war of the scale that would be required to dislodge Putin. He'd have to demonstrate an imminent threat to one's country before anyone would be motivated to do anything about it - otherwise as a leader your own citizens will remove you from power if you oppose him, plus he offers you a good deal if you go along with it - "I kill you last". And if you're a small country, tough shit, because no one's gonna help you.

Strong Russia, weak USA, China growing stronger. Weakened EU. Africa's still fucken nowhere. World politics is changing. I don't like strong Russia at all - especially not strong psychopath Russia.

We'll love you just the way you are
If you're perfect -- Alanis Morissette
(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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26-07-2016, 11:30 AM
RE: Europe, Russia and Trump
(26-07-2016 11:25 AM)morondog Wrote:  ...
When there's a psychopath in control of a nuclear armed nation other leaders tread carefully.
...
Strong Russia, weak USA, China growing stronger. Weakened EU. Africa's still fucken nowhere. World politics is changing. I don't like strong Russia at all - especially not strong psychopath Russia.

I think you might have stumbled upon the only possible reason to vote for Trump.

Unsure

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26-07-2016, 11:33 AM
RE: Europe, Russia and Trump
(26-07-2016 11:30 AM)DLJ Wrote:  
(26-07-2016 11:25 AM)morondog Wrote:  ...
When there's a psychopath in control of a nuclear armed nation other leaders tread carefully.
...
Strong Russia, weak USA, China growing stronger. Weakened EU. Africa's still fucken nowhere. World politics is changing. I don't like strong Russia at all - especially not strong psychopath Russia.

I think you might have stumbled upon the only possible reason to vote for Trump.

Unsure

What do you mean? We need strong psychopaths in both Russia and the US?

[Image: dobie.png]Science is the process we've designed to be responsible for generating our best guess as to what the fuck is going on. Girly Man
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26-07-2016, 11:49 AM
RE: Europe, Russia and Trump
(26-07-2016 11:25 AM)morondog Wrote:  Putin is a psychopath.

I think that he is populist, with authoritarian tendencies who fondly remember USSR, which is not surprising given his past.

(26-07-2016 11:25 AM)morondog Wrote:  I agree he doesn't want war, he took the risk of invading Crimea because he knew he could get away with it. At the same time he happily rubbed everyone else's noses in their own shit.

Yes.

(26-07-2016 11:25 AM)morondog Wrote:  When there's a psychopath in control of a nuclear armed nation other leaders tread carefully. No one's prepared to launch a war of the scale that would be required to dislodge Putin.

Neither is Putin ready for serious war at least going by Putin's Wars I mentioned earlier. Russian army isn't what it used to be and not only Russia have nuclear weapons.

(26-07-2016 11:25 AM)morondog Wrote:  He'd have to demonstrate an imminent threat to one's country before anyone would be motivated to do anything about it - otherwise as a leader your own citizens will remove you from power if you oppose him, plus he offers you a good deal if you go along with it - "I kill you last".

Maybe I'm overly optimistic but I doubt he will do much more. Though I'm not really interested in this issue.

(26-07-2016 11:25 AM)morondog Wrote:  And if you're a small country, tough shit, because no one's gonna help you.

Certainly. Polish politics does not realize this however.

(26-07-2016 11:25 AM)morondog Wrote:  Strong Russia, weak USA, China growing stronger. Weakened EU. Africa's still fucken nowhere. World politics is changing. I don't like strong Russia at all - especially not strong psychopath Russia.

I don't like Russia at all: strong, weak, white, red.

The first revolt is against the supreme tyranny of theology, of the phantom of God. As long as we have a master in heaven, we will be slaves on earth.

Mikhail Bakunin.
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26-07-2016, 12:25 PM
RE: Europe, Russia and Trump
(26-07-2016 11:49 AM)Szuchow Wrote:  Neither is Putin ready for serious war at least going by Putin's Wars I mentioned earlier. Russian army isn't what it used to be and not only Russia have nuclear weapons.
Precisely. He's psycho enough to initiate a nuclear war. So is Trump. No DLJ, two psychos don't negate each other. They compound the risk.

Quote:Maybe I'm overly optimistic but I doubt he will do much more. Though I'm not really interested in this issue.
I agree, if he's left alone probably he won't do much more actual invasions. But he will make sure that if Russia says "Jump" everyone else says "How high?"

Quote:I don't like Russia at all: strong, weak, white, red.
I don't think they're intrinsically evil, but this imperialistic streak and desire to force their terms onto world politics is rather unsettling. As is their apparent lack of respect for human rights. Not that that respect seems to be ingrained even in former bastions of the same such as the UK.

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If you're perfect -- Alanis Morissette
(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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26-07-2016, 12:37 PM
RE: Europe, Russia and Trump
(26-07-2016 12:25 PM)morondog Wrote:  Precisely. He's psycho enough to initiate a nuclear war. So is Trump.

I doubt it. Neither Khrushchev nor Mao were crazy enough.

(26-07-2016 12:25 PM)morondog Wrote:  I agree, if he's left alone probably he won't do much more actual invasions. But he will make sure that if Russia says "Jump" everyone else says "How high?"

Russia isn't the same imperial power that it was in the past. It still have economic leverage and nuclear weapons but I doubt it is enough to incur behavior you describe in countries like Germany or England.

(26-07-2016 12:25 PM)morondog Wrote:  I don't think they're intrinsically evil, but this imperialistic streak and desire to force their terms onto world politics is rather unsettling. As is their apparent lack of respect for human rights. Not that that respect seems to be ingrained even in former bastions of the same such as the UK.

I too don't think that Russia is some kind of evil empire, but I still don't like this country. Glorification of bloodthirsty criminal that ruled it isn't to my taste and it won't lead to good things. To be fair though Poland seems to have similar problem with history.

The first revolt is against the supreme tyranny of theology, of the phantom of God. As long as we have a master in heaven, we will be slaves on earth.

Mikhail Bakunin.
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