Europe, Russia and Trump
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26-07-2016, 12:46 PM
RE: Europe, Russia and Trump
(26-07-2016 12:37 PM)Szuchow Wrote:  
(26-07-2016 12:25 PM)morondog Wrote:  Precisely. He's psycho enough to initiate a nuclear war. So is Trump.

I doubt it. Neither Khrushchev nor Mao were crazy enough.
How much would you bet? Important thing is that he's scary enough to make it a threat. Even if unlikely, his obvious desire to push boundaries puts him beyond what is safe, all it takes from there is a small perturbation and the trigger gets pulled.

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(26-07-2016 12:25 PM)morondog Wrote:  I agree, if he's left alone probably he won't do much more actual invasions. But he will make sure that if Russia says "Jump" everyone else says "How high?"

Russia isn't the same imperial power that it was in the past. It still have economic leverage and nuclear weapons but I doubt it is enough to incur behavior you describe in countries like Germany or England.
If Putin right now told the UK, Norway, Germany et al to e.g. piss off out of the North Sea and leave their oil rigs to him, I think they might well think of capitulating.

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(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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26-07-2016, 01:41 PM
RE: Europe, Russia and Trump
(26-07-2016 12:46 PM)morondog Wrote:  How much would you bet?

I never bet.

(26-07-2016 12:46 PM)morondog Wrote:  Important thing is that he's scary enough to make it a threat.

Does not seem scary to me, especially when I remember his crying during his acceptance speech.

(26-07-2016 12:46 PM)morondog Wrote:  Even if unlikely, his obvious desire to push boundaries puts him beyond what is safe, all it takes from there is a small perturbation and the trigger gets pulled.

Again, I doubt it.

(26-07-2016 12:46 PM)morondog Wrote:  If Putin right now told the UK, Norway, Germany et al to e.g. piss off out of the North Sea and leave their oil rigs to him, I think they might well think of capitulating.

I don't think so but who knows.

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26-07-2016, 01:45 PM
RE: Europe, Russia and Trump
(26-07-2016 01:41 PM)Szuchow Wrote:  
(26-07-2016 12:46 PM)morondog Wrote:  How much would you bet?

I never bet.

Neither do I - question is rhetorical. But fair enough. I just see him as a dangerous lunatic, and Trump as being cut from the same cloth.

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(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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26-07-2016, 01:52 PM
RE: Europe, Russia and Trump
(26-07-2016 01:45 PM)morondog Wrote:  
(26-07-2016 01:41 PM)Szuchow Wrote:  I never bet.

Neither do I - question is rhetorical. But fair enough. I just see him as a dangerous lunatic, and Trump as being cut from the same cloth.

I see him as populist with imperial ambitions, but as I said I doubt that he is mad enough to start nuclear war. Other than that I neither care nor know much about him.

The first revolt is against the supreme tyranny of theology, of the phantom of God. As long as we have a master in heaven, we will be slaves on earth.

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26-07-2016, 01:58 PM
RE: Europe, Russia and Trump
(26-07-2016 01:52 PM)Szuchow Wrote:  
(26-07-2016 01:45 PM)morondog Wrote:  Neither do I - question is rhetorical. But fair enough. I just see him as a dangerous lunatic, and Trump as being cut from the same cloth.

I see him as populist with imperial ambitions, but as I said I doubt that he is mad enough to start nuclear war. Other than that I neither care nor know much about him.

I don't think it would begin as such. But just for example, let's say that Russia and NATO do actually get drawn into a conflict, or Russia and the EU. And let's suppose that one side begins to lose heavily. Do you really think the leader of that losing faction will be able to prevent himself from launching a nuclear attack? After all, it would be so *easy*. If he gets it done in time the enemy won't even know what hit them. And likewise the leader on the other side will be thinking "past a certain point it's likely that these losers will go nuclear. Maybe I'll just pre-empt that and go nuclear myself".

Perhaps a more likely scenario is that faced with the threat one side or the other will back down, but Russia won't lose anything and will continue to pursue aggressive policies.

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(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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26-07-2016, 02:04 PM
RE: Europe, Russia and Trump
(26-07-2016 01:58 PM)morondog Wrote:  I don't think it would begin as such. But just for example, let's say that Russia and NATO do actually get drawn into a conflict, or Russia and the EU. And let's suppose that one side begins to lose heavily. Do you really think the leader of that losing faction will be able to prevent himself from launching a nuclear attack? After all, it would be so *easy*. If he gets it done in time the enemy won't even know what hit them. And likewise the leader on the other side will be thinking "past a certain point it's likely that these losers will go nuclear. Maybe I'll just pre-empt that and go nuclear myself".

It's possible but I would say highly unlikely. Power of atom isn't exactly unknown and whoever strike first must be aware that retaliation will be swift.

(26-07-2016 01:58 PM)morondog Wrote:  Perhaps a more likely scenario is that faced with the threat one side or the other will back down, but Russia won't lose anything and will continue to pursue aggressive policies.

It's possible.

The first revolt is against the supreme tyranny of theology, of the phantom of God. As long as we have a master in heaven, we will be slaves on earth.

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26-07-2016, 02:07 PM
RE: Europe, Russia and Trump
(26-07-2016 02:04 PM)Szuchow Wrote:  It's possible but I would say highly unlikely. Power of atom isn't exactly unknown and whoever strike first must be aware that retaliation will be swift.

On which premise the fragile peace of the cold war was maintained - seems like we might be heading back to those dark days.

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(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
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26-07-2016, 02:12 PM
RE: Europe, Russia and Trump
(26-07-2016 02:07 PM)morondog Wrote:  
(26-07-2016 02:04 PM)Szuchow Wrote:  It's possible but I would say highly unlikely. Power of atom isn't exactly unknown and whoever strike first must be aware that retaliation will be swift.

On which premise the fragile peace of the cold war was maintained - seems like we might be heading back to those dark days.

You seem to have a dim view of of the future. I doubt it will be so bad, but who knows.

The first revolt is against the supreme tyranny of theology, of the phantom of God. As long as we have a master in heaven, we will be slaves on earth.

Mikhail Bakunin.
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26-07-2016, 02:57 PM
RE: Europe, Russia and Trump
If a war between USA and Russia is what worries people , the Hillary as president is the one you should worry about , not Trump, imo.

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26-07-2016, 04:01 PM
RE: Europe, Russia and Trump
(26-07-2016 02:57 PM)Slowminded Wrote:  If a war between USA and Russia is what worries people , the Hillary as president is the one you should worry about , not Trump, imo.

I agree. She seems more likely to get us into a shooting war.

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