Evidence Of Absence.
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26-08-2015, 10:52 PM
RE: Evidence Of Absence.
(26-08-2015 10:46 PM)Chas Wrote:  Most people have a rather poor grasp of probability.

Because if we did, state lotteries and casinos wouldn't be a thing. Undecided

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27-08-2015, 06:33 AM
RE: Evidence Of Absence.
(26-08-2015 10:46 PM)Chas Wrote:  
(26-08-2015 08:58 PM)Matt Finney Wrote:  I would go with a weaker position and say that I don't know whether or not aliens exist, but I would guess that they do, and likewise, I don't know whether or not god exists, but I would guess that he doesn't.

I don't really see what the word "likely" adds if we know nothing about the frequency of occurrence. We could guess that aliens are likely, but if you're guessing, why not just guess that they exist? I don't see any meaningful difference. I also realize that this is a novel idea and that most people don't talk this way, but hell most people believe that god exists, so maybe most people really don't know what the hell they're talking about. Undecided

'Likely' adds the point that the probability is more than 0.5, that is more probable than not. It is not just a guess, it is a result of rational consideration of the evidence and the possibilities.

Most people have a rather poor grasp of probability.

What is the probability of God? Besides being less than 0.5, do you know more specifically?

If I asked 10 different people, would I get 10 different answers about the probability? Would the people just be pulling numbers straight from their ass?
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27-08-2015, 07:14 AM
RE: Evidence Of Absence.
(27-08-2015 06:33 AM)Matt Finney Wrote:  
(26-08-2015 10:46 PM)Chas Wrote:  'Likely' adds the point that the probability is more than 0.5, that is more probable than not. It is not just a guess, it is a result of rational consideration of the evidence and the possibilities.

Most people have a rather poor grasp of probability.

What is the probability of God? Besides being less than 0.5, do you know more specifically?

If I asked 10 different people, would I get 10 different answers about the probability? Would the people just be pulling numbers straight from their ass?

Following Bayesian reasoning, Richard Carrier got somewhere from 1 in 3 (with the most generous assumptions) to 1 in 12,000 (using more reasonable numbers). Even at 1 in 3, a reasonable person wouldn't play Russian Roulette with those odds.




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27-08-2015, 08:44 AM
RE: Evidence Of Absence.
(27-08-2015 06:33 AM)Matt Finney Wrote:  
(26-08-2015 10:46 PM)Chas Wrote:  'Likely' adds the point that the probability is more than 0.5, that is more probable than not. It is not just a guess, it is a result of rational consideration of the evidence and the possibilities.

Most people have a rather poor grasp of probability.

What is the probability of God? Besides being less than 0.5, do you know more specifically?

From the evidence, I conclude it is hardly distinguishable from zero.

Quote:If I asked 10 different people, would I get 10 different answers about the probability?

If you ask 10 people here, you will likely get mostly "zero or pretty close to zero" as answers.
If you ask 10 people in a church, you would very likely get a different distribution.

Quote:Would the people just be pulling numbers straight from their ass?

Not really. I already pointed out that a conclusion is drawn from weighing the evidence
For a rational person, the probability is based on the amount and quality of the evidence.

Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
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27-08-2015, 09:05 AM (This post was last modified: 27-08-2015 09:11 AM by Free.)
RE: Evidence Of Absence.
Query,

Evidence for the existence of God: 0
Evidence for the possibility that God could exist: 0

When there is no evidence for either the existence of God, or for the possible existence of God, how can we arrive at any percentage that could still qualify a possibility as being capable?

I feel this is a very important question.

How can anyone become an atheist when we are all born with no beliefs in the first place? We are atheists because we were born this way.
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27-08-2015, 10:16 AM
RE: Evidence Of Absence.
Perhaps an interesting question could be, can someone be tentatively at 7 on the Dawkins scale? That is at 7 based on the available evidence, yet still being open to new information.

Give me your argument in the form of a published paper, and then we can start to talk.
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27-08-2015, 10:50 AM
RE: Evidence Of Absence.
(27-08-2015 10:16 AM)Hafnof Wrote:  Perhaps an interesting question could be, can someone be tentatively at 7 on the Dawkins scale? That is at 7 based on the available evidence, yet still being open to new information.

Of course.

That's exactly my position. Speculatively, if any evidence is ever discovered I would adjust my position.

I simply feel that since there is currently no evidence at all to withhold validation of being a 7.0, then the most reasonable position to hold is a 7.0.

How can anyone become an atheist when we are all born with no beliefs in the first place? We are atheists because we were born this way.
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27-08-2015, 11:41 AM
RE: Evidence Of Absence.
(27-08-2015 10:16 AM)Hafnof Wrote:  Perhaps an interesting question could be, can someone be tentatively at 7 on the Dawkins scale? That is at 7 based on the available evidence, yet still being open to new information.

Sure. To quote TBD:

There can be no evidence against the existence of something that doesn't exist. There can only be a paucity of evidence. There is the same paucity of evidence for a specific god claim as there is for any nebulous god claim. The only difference (as far as I can tell) is that the more nebulous god claims have set themselves up to be unfalsifiable, untestable, unverifiable, and not independently derivable. In that sense, they are nothing more than imagination and should be treated as such.

The first revolt is against the supreme tyranny of theology, of the phantom of God. As long as we have a master in heaven, we will be slaves on earth.

Mikhail Bakunin.
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27-08-2015, 11:45 AM
RE: Evidence Of Absence.
(27-08-2015 10:16 AM)Hafnof Wrote:  Perhaps an interesting question could be, can someone be tentatively at 7 on the Dawkins scale? That is at 7 based on the available evidence, yet still being open to new information.

Yes.

I am quite firmly at a seven, for reasons explained in various other threads where the question has been raised.

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27-08-2015, 02:42 PM
RE: Evidence Of Absence.
(27-08-2015 10:50 AM)Free Wrote:  
(27-08-2015 10:16 AM)Hafnof Wrote:  Perhaps an interesting question could be, can someone be tentatively at 7 on the Dawkins scale? That is at 7 based on the available evidence, yet still being open to new information.

Of course.

That's exactly my position. Speculatively, if any evidence is ever discovered I would adjust my position.

I simply feel that since there is currently no evidence at all to withhold validation of being a 7.0, then the most reasonable position to hold is a 7.0.

⇧ This
Move over, you’re crowding my position.

I have to say that you converted me to a 7 the last go round.

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