Full Circle’s Mutterings on Money
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05-12-2016, 08:14 PM
RE: Full Circle’s Mutterings on Money
Next time that world shaking news hits the airways and you start to panic about your investments...don’t.

[Image: reasons.jpg]

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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05-12-2016, 09:48 PM
RE: Full Circle’s Mutterings on Money
I think that graph is a little misleading, in a way. Have you ever calculated (or tested) how much MORE you would have had, under various scenarios of getting out under specific rules, ie for instance when the market drops below a specific algorithm .. or a shorter term moving average drops below a longer term moving average ?

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein God has a plan for us. Please stop screwing it up with your prayers.
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05-12-2016, 10:18 PM
RE: Full Circle’s Mutterings on Money
(05-12-2016 09:48 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  I think that graph is a little misleading, in a way. Have you ever calculated (or tested) how much MORE you would have had, under various scenarios of getting out under specific rules, ie for instance when the market drops below a specific algorithm .. or a shorter term moving average drops below a longer term moving average ?

The graph shows that since 1950 the market has, for the most part, blown off in short time whatever war, calamity, assassination was going on at the time.

As for Market Timing I have come Full Circle on what I think is possible and now believe I am not savvy enough to foretell the future. After many years of trying to be the sharpest knife in the drawer I have come to the realization that I am not and it has cost me money. Trying to guess what other investors are going to do is a fools errand imo.

I am now happily married to the theory of proper asset allocation that studies show is responsible for 90% of a portfolios returns. Building the proper portfolio based on your needs, risk tolerance and personality is the way to go, at least for me. Evidence based investing it’s called.

Using your example of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) and chart patterns sounds doable until you try to put it into real-time practice. I’m curious to hear if these methods work for you.

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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06-12-2016, 07:21 AM
RE: Full Circle’s Mutterings on Money
One of my all-time favorite websites https://portfoliocharts.com allows me to explore historical data from 1972 onward. Here you can see what different asset class allocations have done in the preceding 40+ years and it does so with some nifty graphs (I’m all about the graph, no treble).

It is also a good primer as well. Click on Commentary and browse through all the links for thought-provoking reading. Start out with “THE ULTIMATE PORTFOLIO GUIDE FOR ALL TYPES OF INVESTORS” https://portfoliocharts.com/2016/03/07/t...investors/ to understand one of the best tools the site has, The Portfolio Finder (though all the tools are really fantastic) (Note: TSM stands for Total Stock Market).

Let me know what you think, find or comments and questions. Thumbsup

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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06-12-2016, 07:33 AM
RE: Full Circle’s Mutterings on Money
(05-12-2016 10:18 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  
(05-12-2016 09:48 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  I think that graph is a little misleading, in a way. Have you ever calculated (or tested) how much MORE you would have had, under various scenarios of getting out under specific rules, ie for instance when the market drops below a specific algorithm .. or a shorter term moving average drops below a longer term moving average ?

The graph shows that since 1950 the market has, for the most part, blown off in short time whatever war, calamity, assassination was going on at the time.

As for Market Timing I have come Full Circle on what I think is possible and now believe I am not savvy enough to foretell the future. After many years of trying to be the sharpest knife in the drawer I have come to the realization that I am not and it has cost me money. Trying to guess what other investors are going to do is a fools errand imo.

I am now happily married to the theory of proper asset allocation that studies show is responsible for 90% of a portfolios returns. Building the proper portfolio based on your needs, risk tolerance and personality is the way to go, at least for me. Evidence based investing it’s called.

Using your example of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) and chart patterns sounds doable until you try to put it into real-time practice. I’m curious to hear if these methods work for you.

I'm a huge skeptic of any "asset class" models, except for two. REITs and junk bonds. They can be timed. Other than that, I only "trade" (short-sell) currencies under very specific "bad news" scenarios, so nothing I do is really comparable to what you do. I've paid all my tuition bills by currency trading, and built myself a nice "small nest egg". But more than anything, I HATE giving any of it back, EVER. I've been thinking of watching index options and certain commodities and commodity options to trade also under "bad news" scenarios for very short term trades, (ie for example the OEX options really only move well in their expiration months, in the last 2 weeks before they expire, but then the leverage is huge). But at this point I can afford to lose some and it wouldn't kill me.

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein God has a plan for us. Please stop screwing it up with your prayers.
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06-12-2016, 07:50 AM
RE: Full Circle’s Mutterings on Money
(06-12-2016 07:33 AM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  
(05-12-2016 10:18 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  The graph shows that since 1950 the market has, for the most part, blown off in short time whatever war, calamity, assassination was going on at the time.

As for Market Timing I have come Full Circle on what I think is possible and now believe I am not savvy enough to foretell the future. After many years of trying to be the sharpest knife in the drawer I have come to the realization that I am not and it has cost me money. Trying to guess what other investors are going to do is a fools errand imo.

I am now happily married to the theory of proper asset allocation that studies show is responsible for 90% of a portfolios returns. Building the proper portfolio based on your needs, risk tolerance and personality is the way to go, at least for me. Evidence based investing it’s called.

Using your example of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) and chart patterns sounds doable until you try to put it into real-time practice. I’m curious to hear if these methods work for you.

I'm a huge skeptic of any "asset class" models, except for two. REITs and junk bonds. They can be timed. Other than that, I only "trade" (short-sell) currencies under very specific "bad news" scenarios, so nothing I do is really comparable to what you do. I've paid all my tuition bills by currency trading, and built myself a nice "small nest egg". But more than anything, I HATE giving any of it back, EVER. I've been thinking of watching index options and certain commodities and commodity options to trade also under "bad news" scenarios for very short term trades, (ie for example the OEX options really only move well in their expiration months, in the last 2 weeks before they expire, but then the leverage is huge). But at this point I can afford to lose some and it wouldn't kill me.

I think I mentioned to you before that I don't touch currency trading, like you say our approaches are completely different and I can’t speak with any experience on what you do and how you do it. Congrats on paying off your tuition bills.

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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06-12-2016, 08:31 AM
RE: Full Circle’s Mutterings on Money
My people currently got my portfolio with Government securities at 12% (don't think these are available to the genpop), 4% in bonds, 44% in the S&P 500, 15% in small caps, and 25% international. This is based on a 2050 retirement date.

There is only one really serious philosophical question, and that is suicide. -Camus
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06-12-2016, 08:41 AM
RE: Full Circle’s Mutterings on Money
(06-12-2016 08:31 AM)GirlyMan Wrote:  My people currently got my portfolio with Government securities at 12% (don't think these are available to the genpop), 4% in bonds, 44% in the S&P 500, 15% in small caps, and 25% international. This is based on a 2050 retirement date.

That is similar to Vanguard’s 2050 Target Retirement Fund https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGApp...undId=0699

The great thing about these Target funds is that they adjust their allocations as you get closer to retirement, here is the Vanguard example for their 2050 fund.

[Image: tdf_glidepath.gif]

I think you’ll have done well by the time 2050 rolls around. Thumbsup

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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06-12-2016, 08:47 AM
RE: Full Circle’s Mutterings on Money
(06-12-2016 08:41 AM)Full Circle Wrote:  
(06-12-2016 08:31 AM)GirlyMan Wrote:  My people currently got my portfolio with Government securities at 12% (don't think these are available to the genpop), 4% in bonds, 44% in the S&P 500, 15% in small caps, and 25% international. This is based on a 2050 retirement date.

That is similar to Vanguard’s 2050 Target Retirement Fund https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGApp...undId=0699

The great thing about these Target funds is that they adjust their allocations as you get closer to retirement, here is the Vanguard example for their 2050 fund.

[Image: tdf_glidepath.gif]

I think you’ll have done well by the time 2050 rolls around. Thumbsup

I'll be 90 then. So around mid-career. My defined benefits include 1.1% of my high 3 salary for each year worked. So if I work 91 years I'll be losing money. That's my current plan at least, Kurzweil willing.

There is only one really serious philosophical question, and that is suicide. -Camus
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06-12-2016, 12:49 PM
RE: Full Circle’s Mutterings on Money
(06-12-2016 08:31 AM)GirlyMan Wrote:  My people currently got my portfolio with Government securities at 12% (don't think these are available to the genpop), 4% in bonds, 44% in the S&P 500, 15% in small caps, and 25% international. This is based on a 2050 retirement date.

Laugh out loadLaugh out loadLaugh out load

Ya, I'm looking at the 2050 retirement date as well -- otherwise known as "work until I die".
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