Full Circle’s Mutterings on Money
Post Reply
 
Thread Rating:
  • 0 Votes - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
06-12-2016, 03:59 PM
RE: Full Circle’s Mutterings on Money
If you think we’re headed towards WWIII in the next four years you can always invest in ETFs that target (pun intended) Aerospace and Defense companies.

Trading symbols XAR and ITA.

http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/12/06/...our-years/

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
07-12-2016, 07:29 PM
RE: Full Circle’s Mutterings on Money
(06-12-2016 07:33 AM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  
(05-12-2016 10:18 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  The graph shows that since 1950 the market has, for the most part, blown off in short time whatever war, calamity, assassination was going on at the time.

As for Market Timing I have come Full Circle on what I think is possible and now believe I am not savvy enough to foretell the future. After many years of trying to be the sharpest knife in the drawer I have come to the realization that I am not and it has cost me money. Trying to guess what other investors are going to do is a fools errand imo.

I am now happily married to the theory of proper asset allocation that studies show is responsible for 90% of a portfolios returns. Building the proper portfolio based on your needs, risk tolerance and personality is the way to go, at least for me. Evidence based investing it’s called.

Using your example of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) and chart patterns sounds doable until you try to put it into real-time practice. I’m curious to hear if these methods work for you.

I'm a huge skeptic of any "asset class" models, except for two. REITs and junk bonds. They can be timed. Other than that, I only "trade" (short-sell) currencies under very specific "bad news" scenarios, so nothing I do is really comparable to what you do. I've paid all my tuition bills by currency trading, and built myself a nice "small nest egg". But more than anything, I HATE giving any of it back, EVER. I've been thinking of watching index options and certain commodities and commodity options to trade also under "bad news" scenarios for very short term trades, (ie for example the OEX options really only move well in their expiration months, in the last 2 weeks before they expire, but then the leverage is huge). But at this point I can afford to lose some and it wouldn't kill me.

Bucky, here is a short opinion piece by a money manager on MACD

http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2016/12...erfection/

"The truth is that indicators are just a derivative of price; they’re an elaborate way of turning something simple into something complex. Indicators can’t be used to perfection because they don’t actually indicate anything about the future any more than a magic eight ball does.”

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
08-12-2016, 03:41 PM
RE: Full Circle’s Mutterings on Money
There is an adage that says it’s not timing the market but rather time in the market and here is why, if you had missed the best 25 days since 1970 you’re returns would have gone from 1910% down to 371%, or 6.7% a year down to 3.4%

[Image: missing-best-png.jpg]
http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2016/01...t-of-days/

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 2 users Like Full Circle's post
22-12-2016, 03:21 PM
RE: Full Circle’s Mutterings on Money
(06-12-2016 08:31 AM)GirlyMan Wrote:  My people currently got my portfolio with Government securities at 12% (don't think these are available to the genpop), 4% in bonds, 44% in the S&P 500, 15% in small caps, and 25% international. This is based on a 2050 retirement date.

Girly, I read this piece today and thought of you. Hopefully your Target Date Fund is more like Vanguard’s than Fidelity’s.

https://baselinescenario.com/2016/12/21/...to-invest/

"Again, the lesson for the individual investor is this: If you are investing in a target date fund, figure out what’s in it, and figure out if you can make essentially the same investments more cheaply. And the lesson for society is this: Even when the products are basically pretty simple (U.S. stock funds), companies will manufacture complexity and barriers to entry in an effort to boost prices well above marginal cost. "

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 1 user Likes Full Circle's post
22-12-2016, 04:28 PM
RE: Full Circle’s Mutterings on Money
(22-12-2016 03:21 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  
(06-12-2016 08:31 AM)GirlyMan Wrote:  My people currently got my portfolio with Government securities at 12% (don't think these are available to the genpop), 4% in bonds, 44% in the S&P 500, 15% in small caps, and 25% international. This is based on a 2050 retirement date.

Girly, I read this piece today and thought of you. Hopefully your Target Date Fund is more like Vanguard’s than Fidelity’s.

https://baselinescenario.com/2016/12/21/...to-invest/

"Again, the lesson for the individual investor is this: If you are investing in a target date fund, figure out what’s in it, and figure out if you can make essentially the same investments more cheaply. And the lesson for society is this: Even when the products are basically pretty simple (U.S. stock funds), companies will manufacture complexity and barriers to entry in an effort to boost prices well above marginal cost. "

I pay 2.9 basis points. Is good, no?

#sigh
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
22-12-2016, 07:20 PM
RE: Full Circle’s Mutterings on Money
(22-12-2016 04:28 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  
(22-12-2016 03:21 PM)Full Circle Wrote:  Girly, I read this piece today and thought of you. Hopefully your Target Date Fund is more like Vanguard’s than Fidelity’s.

https://baselinescenario.com/2016/12/21/...to-invest/

"Again, the lesson for the individual investor is this: If you are investing in a target date fund, figure out what’s in it, and figure out if you can make essentially the same investments more cheaply. And the lesson for society is this: Even when the products are basically pretty simple (U.S. stock funds), companies will manufacture complexity and barriers to entry in an effort to boost prices well above marginal cost. "

I pay 2.9 basis points. Is good, no?

Vanguard charges 0.14% - 0.16% https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fun...irement/#/ for comparison.

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
20-01-2017, 01:11 PM
RE: Full Circle’s Mutterings on Money
The eight richest individuals have as much wealth as the poorest half of the world.
7 of the 10 have pledged to give most of it away to charities. Thumbsup

"In my entire lifetime, everything that I’ve spent will be quite a bit less than 1 percent of everything I make. The other 99 percent plus will go to others because it has no utility to me. So it’s silly for me to not transfer that utility to people who can use it.” ~ Warren Buffet

[Image: oxfam-report-inequality.jpg]

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/oxfam-re...ity-story/

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
26-01-2017, 01:41 PM
RE: Full Circle’s Mutterings on Money
I’m in the middle of creating a new Powerpoint presentation on finances and just created this slide, I crack me up. Smile

CREDIT & CREDIT CARDS

Over the 30 years you threw $33,052 out the window because you didn’t have an excellent credit score!

[Image: giphy.gif]

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
03-02-2017, 08:32 PM
RE: Full Circle’s Mutterings on Money
The new president wants to do way with the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act.

Here is a summation and why it is important it remains.
tl;dr the Act tries to keep the big financial institutions from fucking up our economy like they did a few years back.

"Explaining the Dodd-Frank Act

In an effort to prevent crises like the these in the future, the policymakers behind the Dodd-Frank Act underwrote a series of critical reforms. The act increases the amount that capital banks must hold in reserve, giving the banks an added cushion to absorb loan losses in future downturns. It similarly requires banks to keep a larger portion of their assets invested in things that can be easily liquidated in the event of a bank run – namely, cash and government securities as opposed to term loans.

The act also subjects the nation's biggest banks to a series of heightened regulatory requirements not faced by regional and community banks. Under Dodd-Frank, every bank with more than $50 billion worth of assets on its balance sheet must submit to annual stress tests administered by the Federal Reserve, which then determines if they would survive a hypothetically severe crisis akin to the one in 2008. As a part of the stress tests, these banks must also seek regulatory approval to increase their dividends or authorize new share repurchase programs.

Even among the biggest banks, moreover, the Dodd-Frank Act makes distinctions. The biggest among them are classified as global systemically important banks, or G-SIBs, which must hold an additional tranche of capital, known as the G-SIB surcharge. This is particularly burdensome for JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup which have to keep as much as 3% their shareholders' equity laying fallow in cash or low-yielding but highly liquid securities. These banks must also submit resolution plans to regulators each year, detailing how they could be resolved without causing harm to the financial markets in the event they go bankrupt.

The Dodd-Frank Act has reintroduced central tenets of the Glass-Steagall Act as well, which had been gradually eroded over the years after originally forbidding commercial banks from running trading operations. The iteration of the rule in Dodd-Frank, known as the Volcker Rule, outlaws proprietary trading at universal banks and thereby limits their trading operations to serving as market makers for institutional clients. And last but certainly not least among the major changes introduced by the Dodd-Frank Act was the founding of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which is vested with the authority to protect consumers from unfair, deceptive, or abusive financial products and services.”

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017.../97454748/

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
11-03-2017, 07:17 PM
RE: Full Circle’s Mutterings on Money
“When the biggest companies aren’t paying their fair share, that means the rest of us are left to pick up the slack. It means small business and middle-income families are paying more.”

Profitable Companies, No Taxes: Here’s How They Did It
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/09/busin...holtz&_r=0

I’m always amazed why this isn’t a “thing”, and why people aren’t rioting in the streets over it. Consider

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply
Forum Jump: