GOP brokered convention
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02-03-2016, 08:30 AM
GOP brokered convention
So far, Trump is kicking all kinds of ass in the primaries, but due to the number of candidates and the nature of the field, he's only winning with a plurality of the votes. His "unstoppable" victories are still being carried with something like 35% of the vote. So, if Rubio and Cruz hang on all the way until the end, Trump likely won't have enough votes to flat-out win the nomination, resulting in a brokered convention.

At this point, a lot of weird wheeling and dealings go on to try to consolidate the votes. It's expected that Cruz and Rubio combined will have a majority of the votes, and it's obvious that the RNC is no fan of Trump. The end result I see, given how things have been playing out so far, is that Trump will show up to the convention with the most votes, and get the nomination yanked out from under him, only to see it handed to one of the other two candidates.

If that happens, I'm curious what this will do both to Trump supporters and the Republican party; not just in the 2016 election, but in future elections, as well. Would Trump pitch a hissy fit and run 3rd party? Would a substantial number of his supporters write him in, even if he didn't run? Would there be an actual schism in the party, resulting in a new party running in the 2018 mid-term elections?

A lot of Trump's appeal to his supporters is his outsider/anti-establishment stance. If the RNC just flat-out takes the nomination from the guy with the most votes going in, how will his supporters react?
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02-03-2016, 08:32 AM
RE: GOP brokered convention
My prediction: He will run third party and the the sane among us will laugh our asses off as the GOP splits its votes come November. Laughat

Being nice is something stupid people do to hedge their bets
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02-03-2016, 08:44 AM
RE: GOP brokered convention
My only fear of him running third party is that the GOP performs better than expected in the House and Senate. I assume both sets of conservative voters will know full-well that they have to beat two candidates, and will try even harder to get out the vote. That's a lot of people pulling the red lever for congress seats, regardless of which presidential candidate they want to win.
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02-03-2016, 08:47 AM
RE: GOP brokered convention
(02-03-2016 08:44 AM)RobbyPants Wrote:  My only fear of him running third party is that the GOP performs better than expected in the House and Senate. I assume both sets of conservative voters will know full-well that they have to beat two candidates, and will try even harder to get out the vote. That's a lot of people pulling the red lever for congress seats, regardless of which presidential candidate they want to win.

Consider Entirely possible I suppose. I'd hope that Trump voters would be pissed off at the other GOP candidates on the ballot too though. After all, they are shunning him too. So maybe they won't vote conservative down ticket.

Being nice is something stupid people do to hedge their bets
-Rick
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02-03-2016, 05:36 PM
RE: GOP brokered convention
This whole system is so rigged, it's almost hilarious.

If we came from dust, then why is there still dust?
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02-03-2016, 06:38 PM
RE: GOP brokered convention
Cruz and Rubio seem to hate each other as much as they hate Trump. The money wing of the party despises Cruz as much as they hate Trump but Rubio is the quintessential Not-Ready-For-Prime-Time-Player.

If Trump is short of a majority expect WWIII to break out among the fucktards.

Atheism is NOT a Religion. It's A Personal Relationship With Reality!
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02-03-2016, 06:47 PM
RE: GOP brokered convention
(02-03-2016 08:30 AM)RobbyPants Wrote:  So far, Trump is kicking all kinds of ass in the primaries, but due to the number of candidates and the nature of the field, he's only winning with a plurality of the votes. His "unstoppable" victories are still being carried with something like 35% of the vote. So, if Rubio and Cruz hang on all the way until the end, Trump likely won't have enough votes to flat-out win the nomination, resulting in a brokered convention.

At this point, a lot of weird wheeling and dealings go on to try to consolidate the votes. It's expected that Cruz and Rubio combined will have a majority of the votes, and it's obvious that the RNC is no fan of Trump. The end result I see, given how things have been playing out so far, is that Trump will show up to the convention with the most votes, and get the nomination yanked out from under him, only to see it handed to one of the other two candidates.

If that happens, I'm curious what this will do both to Trump supporters and the Republican party; not just in the 2016 election, but in future elections, as well. Would Trump pitch a hissy fit and run 3rd party? Would a substantial number of his supporters write him in, even if he didn't run? Would there be an actual schism in the party, resulting in a new party running in the 2018 mid-term elections?

A lot of Trump's appeal to his supporters is his outsider/anti-establishment stance. If the RNC just flat-out takes the nomination from the guy with the most votes going in, how will his supporters react?

That is exactly what happened to Hubert Humphrey in 1968. He was the establishment candidate, and we the Vietnam protesters stole it out from under him and passed to Eugene McArthur or whatever his name actually was from S Dakota and messed up our party's apparatus for a couple of decades.
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02-03-2016, 06:56 PM
RE: GOP brokered convention
(02-03-2016 08:44 AM)RobbyPants Wrote:  My only fear of him running third party is that the GOP performs better than expected in the House and Senate. I assume both sets of conservative voters will know full-well that they have to beat two candidates, and will try even harder to get out the vote. That's a lot of people pulling the red lever for congress seats, regardless of which presidential candidate they want to win.

Yeah, I totally agree with your analysis. If anything, I would say that the high republican turn out in the primaries is not all due to Drumpf support, but also to a lot of republicans going "oh shit we need to stop this moron"!
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02-03-2016, 06:59 PM
RE: GOP brokered convention
I keep saying this and it totally needs repeating...

I don't believe he's a real candidate. I think he's bored and is trying to be obnoxious. He's playing the role of Donald trump.

I totally believe this. If he ends up with the GOP nominating him for a job he truly doesn't want to do....

He might just have to swallow that immense pride and refuse it. But then all his supporters will flee.

That's why he's being so outlandish. He doesn't want the nomination. So he'll pretend to be hurt by it all and give his support to whoever will be the greatest benefit to him.


But as if to knock me down, reality came around
And without so much as a mere touch, cut me into little pieces

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02-03-2016, 07:05 PM
RE: GOP brokered convention
(02-03-2016 06:59 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  I keep saying this and it totally needs repeating...

I don't believe he's a real candidate. I think he's bored and is trying to be obnoxious. He's playing the role of Donald trump.

I totally believe this. If he ends up with the GOP nominating him for a job he truly doesn't want to do....

He might just have to swallow that immense pride and refuse it. But then all his supporters will flee.

That's why he's being so outlandish. He doesn't want the nomination. So he'll pretend to be hurt by it all and give his support to whoever will be the greatest benefit to him.

I don't agree with that. He is a narcissist and a megalomaniac and he must win or he will have a melt down.

[Image: dobie.png]Science is the process we've designed to be responsible for generating our best guess as to what the fuck is going on. Girly Man
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