GOP brokered convention
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02-03-2016, 08:35 PM
RE: GOP brokered convention
(02-03-2016 06:59 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  I keep saying this and it totally needs repeating...

I don't believe he's a real candidate. I think he's bored and is trying to be obnoxious. He's playing the role of Donald trump.

Do you think he's going to pull of his mask and reveal that he's actually Sacha Baron Cohen making a movie?
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02-03-2016, 08:49 PM
RE: GOP brokered convention
I'm all for breaking the two party system. It's possible that this could occur. Half of the Republicans seem to hate Trump - maybe more. A lot of people have voted for him just because they think it's the only way to prevent Hilary from becoming president, even though they hate Trump. If the GOP is split in half it could really benefit the country in the long run. If that scenario were to play out, don't assume one-party democrat system would be they only one winning the presidency forever. I think a large number of disenfranchised Dems would be enticed into a voting for a third party in this hypothetical situation. I don't think this scenario is likely though. What is more likely is that the Republicans will be split this election, the Dems will win with Clinton, and probably once more in 2020 before we see a Republican win in 2024. That's my best guess. Hope I'm wrong.

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03-03-2016, 08:10 AM
RE: GOP brokered convention
(02-03-2016 08:49 PM)Dark Light Wrote:  I'm all for breaking the two party system. It's possible that this could occur.

I don't see this as breaking the two party system so much as breaking the GOP and forcing it to realign itself or get replaced by whatever 3rd party pops up. At the end of the day, without actually modifying how we elect people, we're always going to have a two party system. It's first-past-the-post, and that doesn't tolerate 3rd parties at all. It's the basic setup where people are afraid of "throwing their vote away" and refusing to vote for a candidate/party that appears weak, even if otherwise appealing.

We'd need something closer to Australia's preferential system, where you can vote for "lesser" candidates without fear of throwing the vote to the opposition.
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03-03-2016, 10:35 AM
RE: GOP brokered convention
(03-03-2016 08:10 AM)RobbyPants Wrote:  It's first-past-the-post, and that doesn't tolerate 3rd parties at all.

*cough*.

Canada.

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03-03-2016, 10:48 AM
RE: GOP brokered convention
One thing is guaranteed...mud-slinging, temper tantrum throwing, name calling, hand wringing, sensationalist headlines for the next year! Thumbsup

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
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03-03-2016, 12:23 PM
RE: GOP brokered convention
(03-03-2016 10:35 AM)cjlr Wrote:  
(03-03-2016 08:10 AM)RobbyPants Wrote:  It's first-past-the-post, and that doesn't tolerate 3rd parties at all.

*cough*.

Canada.

How does it work differently than the US? Here, the newcomer tends to align more closely to one party than the other, and they end up splitting to vote and giving the election to the other party.
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03-03-2016, 12:32 PM
RE: GOP brokered convention
At times the left or the right may be split but in nearly all cases in a " first past the post" system the result does not represent the majority of voters if there are more than 2 parties. Mind you we often have majority governments in Canada that get things passed fairly easily without the gridlock that seems characteristic of American government.

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03-03-2016, 02:06 PM
RE: GOP brokered convention
(03-03-2016 12:23 PM)RobbyPants Wrote:  
(03-03-2016 10:35 AM)cjlr Wrote:  *cough*.

Canada.

How does it work differently than the US? Here, the newcomer tends to align more closely to one party than the other, and they end up splitting to vote and giving the election to the other party.

Generally it's that third parties (and very much not necessarily the same ones riding to riding and epoch to epoch) have sufficient support to force wider than head-to-head races in a lot of cases. Part of that is that in a parliamentary system support has to build bottom-up, as opposed to something like Perot where there was no down-ballot strategy whatsoever, and thus no staying power.

But it's also that we don't take party lines as a sort of tribalist identity nearly so far. There are LOTS of swing voters. And consequential to that, I think, is that even a vote for the third-place finisher is still seen as a valid expression of political will, because the 'other' isn't nearly as demonised, and things could well swing 20-30% in another direction by the time the next election rolls around.

Certainly in single-member plurality-take-all districts there are the same innate systematic biases, though, don't get me wrong. But that's not the sole driver on electorate behaviour.

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03-03-2016, 02:40 PM
RE: GOP brokered convention
(02-03-2016 08:35 PM)RobbyPants Wrote:  
(02-03-2016 06:59 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  I keep saying this and it totally needs repeating...

I don't believe he's a real candidate. I think he's bored and is trying to be obnoxious. He's playing the role of Donald trump.

Do you think he's going to pull of his mask and reveal that he's actually Sacha Baron Cohen making a movie?

What I'm saying is he has a carefully crafted persona. Like he had the tv reality show the apprentice. This is what he's banking on. He knows the average American is stupid and that's what he speaks to and represents.

But contrast that with his inane tweets and comments about having Mexico finance the wall and other blathering that basically says nothing except make America great again....with no formal outline on how...

All that tells me that he's not really serious. If the GOP, throws him under the bus, the way it appears they have been doing, at the convention, he saves face. Sure, he'll blow a gasket, but in the end he will support whatever candidate can do the MOST for him. Because that's all he's interested in anyway. What this can do for him in the long run.

He's running a long con. He's not thinking 4 years he's thinking 20 and how much potential money that can make him.

If he is elected president and fails miserably (because yes men and women, while wonderful personal assistants, make a horrible joint chiefs of staff) even if he claims he's not to blame, the public will turn and he could be ruined (like Nixon -- no wanted his opinion for shit after he resigned -- to a certain extent Johnson and Ford too).

The only reason Carter remained relavent was because of his Middle East dealings -- and his extensive charity work -- still he was also a generally nice old man, and it took forever to rebuild his reputation.


But as if to knock me down, reality came around
And without so much as a mere touch, cut me into little pieces

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03-03-2016, 03:36 PM
RE: GOP brokered convention
(02-03-2016 08:30 AM)RobbyPants Wrote:  So far, Trump is kicking all kinds of ass in the primaries, but due to the number of candidates and the nature of the field, he's only winning with a plurality of the votes. His "unstoppable" victories are still being carried with something like 35% of the vote. So, if Rubio and Cruz hang on all the way until the end, Trump likely won't have enough votes to flat-out win the nomination, resulting in a brokered convention.

At this point, a lot of weird wheeling and dealings go on to try to consolidate the votes. It's expected that Cruz and Rubio combined will have a majority of the votes, and it's obvious that the RNC is no fan of Trump. The end result I see, given how things have been playing out so far, is that Trump will show up to the convention with the most votes, and get the nomination yanked out from under him, only to see it handed to one of the other two candidates.

If that happens, I'm curious what this will do both to Trump supporters and the Republican party; not just in the 2016 election, but in future elections, as well. Would Trump pitch a hissy fit and run 3rd party? Would a substantial number of his supporters write him in, even if he didn't run? Would there be an actual schism in the party, resulting in a new party running in the 2018 mid-term elections?

A lot of Trump's appeal to his supporters is his outsider/anti-establishment stance. If the RNC just flat-out takes the nomination from the guy with the most votes going in, how will his supporters react?

It could happen, but as we progress through the primary process, the GOP has increasing numbers of states that are winner-take-all regardless of whether the candidate got a majority. Trump could easily make up his shortfall with a handful of winner-take-all states. He's only just a little bit under 50% of the awarded delegates to date already, and the upcoming calendar will allow him to grow that even if he keeps winning with 35% of the vote. The best thing for Trump is what all his opponents are doing--stubbornly staying in the race well beyond any chance of winning. On the current trajectory, Trump is the nominee. The only way that changes is if his opponents succeed in dragging his numbers down.
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