GirlyMan's Guide to Financial Security
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13-11-2013, 09:26 PM
GirlyMan's Guide to Financial Security
Work hard, study harder, and above all, first and foremost, be lucky. Tongue

As it was in the beginning is now and ever shall be, world without end. Amen.
And I will show you something different from either
Your shadow at morning striding behind you
Or your shadow at evening rising to meet you;
I will show you fear in a handful of dust.
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13-11-2013, 10:49 PM
RE: GirlyMan's Guide to Financial Security
(13-11-2013 09:26 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  Work hard, study harder, and above all, first and foremost, be lucky. Tongue

Interesting article, but a few errors. Naturally the biggest one is, like all liberals, he blames the growing inequality (growing gini co-efficient) on Reagan/Bush tax cuts. But he ignores the fact that the gini co-efficient reversed course in 1971--nearly 10 years before Reagan, while the US still had high tax rates. The trend merely CONTINUED through the Reagan/Bush tax cuts. Of course, it's well know what happened in 1971, it was predicted when it did that it would create growing inequality, and models have shown it happened exactly as predicted. So, he's completely ignoring the cause of the problem. You can't fix something if you don't acknowledge the cause.

He's right for saying that the way for the ordinary man to get ahead is to save and invest. This is a simple math: set aside $1k/month and by retirement you'll be a multi-multi millionaire. However, what he fails to acknowledge is the current financial system is designed to discourage saving and investing, and encourage borrowing and spending. Even left guys, like Krugman, say this is a good thing, that it's engineered into the system.

Lastly he suggests raising capital gains tax rates to be closer to ordinary income. This is such an easy one if he just spent 5 minutes doing a little research. Download the historic capital gains rates as well as the capital gains tax revenue. They are perfect mirrors. Every time the capital gains rate went up, people simply stopped investing and the government took in LESS money. Back in the 1970's the capital gains tax rate was 40%, and there was virtually no tax revenue because nobody was investing. What he forgets is that taxing something discourages it. Europe's heavy tax on gasoline discourages driving. A heavy tax on investing (capital gains) discourages investing. So, if he wants more progressive taxes AND doesn't want to screw the economy, tax something that should be discouraged: conspicuous consumption, with a national sales tax (exemptions for food and basic staples), as well as higher and more progressive property taxes. This would still be a redistribution of wealth, but rather than punishing investment, it would encourage it, and instead punish building a $100m mansion.
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13-11-2013, 11:10 PM (This post was last modified: 13-11-2013 11:18 PM by GirlyMan.)
RE: GirlyMan's Guide to Financial Security
(13-11-2013 10:49 PM)frankksj Wrote:  
(13-11-2013 09:26 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  Work hard, study harder, and above all, first and foremost, be lucky. Tongue

Interesting article, but a few errors.

Yeah. Girly ain't gonna argue the facts for the gazillionaire PIMCO co-founder vs. Frank.

What Girly can argue from experience is that the key to financial security is: Work hard, study harder, and above all, first and foremost, be lucky. Girly's an example of the Forrest Gump Effect. Except drastically attenuated by many orders of magnitude of wealth. Forrest wouldn't even have noticed. Be the Gump Girly, be the Gump.

As it was in the beginning is now and ever shall be, world without end. Amen.
And I will show you something different from either
Your shadow at morning striding behind you
Or your shadow at evening rising to meet you;
I will show you fear in a handful of dust.
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14-11-2013, 12:37 AM
RE: GirlyMan's Guide to Financial Security
(13-11-2013 09:26 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  Work hard, study harder, and above all, first and foremost, be lucky. Tongue

Or, work hard, study harder, and go out and find yourself a thrifty Scots-Irish great great grampaw, (with a pushy, stunningly beautiful, but very bitchy, wife). Weeping

Insufferable know-it-all.Einstein
Those who were seen dancing were thought to be insane by those who could not hear the music - Friedrich Nietzsche
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14-11-2013, 12:54 AM
RE: GirlyMan's Guide to Financial Security
(14-11-2013 12:37 AM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  
(13-11-2013 09:26 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  Work hard, study harder, and above all, first and foremost, be lucky. Tongue

Or, work hard, study harder, and go out and find yourself a thrifty Scots-Irish great great grampaw, (with a pushy, stunningly beautiful, but very bitchy, wife). Weeping

I don't see the difference between those statements. Drinking Beverage

As it was in the beginning is now and ever shall be, world without end. Amen.
And I will show you something different from either
Your shadow at morning striding behind you
Or your shadow at evening rising to meet you;
I will show you fear in a handful of dust.
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14-11-2013, 10:40 AM
RE: GirlyMan's Guide to Financial Security
(13-11-2013 11:10 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  What Girly can argue from experience is that the key to financial security is: Work hard, study harder, and above all, first and foremost, be lucky. Girly's an example of the Forrest Gump Effect. Except drastically attenuated by many orders of magnitude of wealth. Forrest wouldn't even have noticed. Be the Gump Girly, be the Gump.

You're omitting so much of the equation. Yes, being lucky enough to be born into a wealthy family is one proven way to financial security. But look at the Forbes list of richest Americans. Only a tiny percentage inherited it. The rest are self made. And even those who DID inherit it, the inheritance never goes back more than a couple generations to someone self-made. We don't have a caste system or a monarchy; some of the richest men started with the humblest beginnings.

Where LUCK does play a factor is that studies have proven the largest predictor of success is high IQ--more so than the wealth of your parents. But even there, many successful high IQ people are willing to share their secrets and tricks, so IMO having an open mind is almost as valuable.

But one giant piece of the puzzle is managing the risk/reward ratio. The higher rewards always carry the higher risks. If you choose to be a government worker, there is zero risk, and correspondingly, the reward is limited. In fact anytime you're an employee of someone else, the risk is much lower, and so is the reward. If you're a janitor at McDonald's, there's little risk and little reward. If you start your own janitorial service, the risks are huge, and the overwhelming odds are that you will fail. But if you pull it off, there is a huge reward.

This risk/reward balance is what liberals seem to always forget, imo. If you download the US historic lt capital gains tax rate and compare it to the tax paid, they are mirror opposites. Every time the tax rate goes up, the amount of tax collected goes down. Liberals REFUSE to ever discuss this obvious historical fact because they don't accept the risk:reward balance. When you raise the taxes on investment, the reward goes down, altering the risk:reward ratio, so people take fewer risks. Few millionaires will risk their fortune investing in building a factory if the potential reward is $10,000. But if the potential reward is $1 billion, many will line up. So lowering the reward, even $1 at a time, very slowly lowers the amount of risk people will take since the risk:reward payoff has to always be there.
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14-11-2013, 10:58 AM
RE: GirlyMan's Guide to Financial Security
(13-11-2013 09:26 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  Work hard, study harder, and above all, first and foremost, be lucky. Tongue
I'm reading this as:
Have blueprints of the bank , dig a tunnel , don't get caught.

. . . ................................ ......................................... . [Image: 2dsmnow.gif] Eat at Joe's
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14-11-2013, 05:06 PM (This post was last modified: 14-11-2013 06:09 PM by GirlyMan.)
RE: GirlyMan's Guide to Financial Security
(14-11-2013 10:40 AM)frankksj Wrote:  You're omitting so much of the equation.

Nope. You're just overcomplicating it. Hard work is helpful, but neither necessary nor sufficient. Brains is helpful, but neither necessary nor sufficient. Luck is not necessary, but it is sufficient.

(14-11-2013 10:40 AM)frankksj Wrote:  If you choose to be a government worker, there is zero risk, and correspondingly, the reward is limited.

Not as limited as you might think, I think.

[Image: GS.png]

As it was in the beginning is now and ever shall be, world without end. Amen.
And I will show you something different from either
Your shadow at morning striding behind you
Or your shadow at evening rising to meet you;
I will show you fear in a handful of dust.
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14-11-2013, 06:59 PM
RE: GirlyMan's Guide to Financial Security
(14-11-2013 05:06 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  Nope. You're just overcomplicating it. Hard work is helpful, but neither necessary nor sufficient. Brains is helpful, but neither necessary nor sufficient. Luck is not necessary, but it is sufficient.

That's silly. Obviously it depends on what "luck" we're talking about. Sure, if you're lucky enough to win the lottery, you're set. If you're a woman whose lucky enough to be a stunning beauty, she's pretty much set too. But if "lucky" means you have nice teeth, well, I think hard work and a 150 IQ will get you farther. And if "lucky" means you're born in Sweden, you might not be a millionaire, but even if you do nothing but at home and watch TV you'll do a lot better than most people born in Cambodia.

The point is that there are lots of levels and lots of factors. High taxes don't just affect "lucky" people, it also affects smart and hard working people too. A 99% income tax might not stop people from being "lucky", but it surely will stop them from working hard.

This is what I keep pointing out when celebrities advocate high taxes. Many of them got there because they were lucky--born with talent. If you're a great singer or a comedian, who does what you love, and uses your talent, you're not going to stop performing if the income tax is 80%. You're still going to do what you love and use the lucky gift you were given.

But if you're a doctor, that's got little to do with luck, and lots to do with hard work, like going to school for 10+ years, enduring a grueling residency, and putting off any personal life until your 40's. In this case, if the income tax is 80%, a lot of would-be doctors would simply find the payoff too low to justify all the work. So, when "lucky" people like celebrities say we need high taxes, they're doing what you're doing: assuming everybody who is wealthy got there by luck alone, and ignoring the hard work that most endure.

Let's make a bet. Set a reminder 10 years in the future. I'll bet you that France will have slipped dramatically in its world ranking because right now, with the 75% tax, so many smart, hardworking French just aren't willing to start businesses, or are leaving France. This will take many years for the effect to be felt. And left-leaning economists say that a 70% tax rate or so isn't bad for the economy. But just watch....

(14-11-2013 05:06 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  Not as limited as you might think, I think.

Sure, I'm not disputing that you government workers are overpaid. Smile But, still that's peanuts to someone like Mark Zuckerberg who makes that annual salary every hour.
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14-11-2013, 08:11 PM (This post was last modified: 14-11-2013 08:34 PM by GirlyMan.)
RE: GirlyMan's Guide to Financial Security
(14-11-2013 06:59 PM)frankksj Wrote:  
(14-11-2013 05:06 PM)GirlyMan Wrote:  Nope. You're just overcomplicating it. Hard work is helpful, but neither necessary nor sufficient. Brains is helpful, but neither necessary nor sufficient. Luck is not necessary, but it is sufficient.

That's silly.

My entire life can be described as a string of luck, silly.

(14-11-2013 06:59 PM)frankksj Wrote:  Sure, I'm not disputing that you government workers are overpaid.

Come back and talk to me about how we're overpaid when you are responsible for making sure millions of dollars of taxpayers' money ain't being wasted on useless and futile basic research projects and efforts. It's a responsibility we take serious. Without competent and qualified Government researcher review 90% of what the taxpayers buy would be fucking snake oil. ... So frankly Frank, fuck you.

(14-11-2013 06:59 PM)frankksj Wrote:  But, still that's peanuts to someone like Mark Zuckerberg who makes that annual salary every hour.

I'm talking about "financial security" not financial obscenity, Frank. Girly don't wanna be no Zuckerberg. Girly don't want to win the lottery. Girly wouldn't know what to do with that kind of obscene wealth and likely couldn't psychologically handle it and would die prematurely from Propofol. I got enough so I ain't gotta worry about paying the bills and still have enough left over to invest in a retirement plan. That's kinda like the definition of "financial security". Girly's a very lucky man. Good to go. Thumbsup I don't need no more, Frank. Frankly Frank, Girly don't want no more.




As it was in the beginning is now and ever shall be, world without end. Amen.
And I will show you something different from either
Your shadow at morning striding behind you
Or your shadow at evening rising to meet you;
I will show you fear in a handful of dust.
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