How could Putin lose?
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20-07-2017, 04:52 PM
RE: How could Putin lose?
(20-07-2017 03:49 PM)Ron NL-S Wrote:  Yes, he wants to keep Assad in power. Why? In order to avoid having yet another extremist muslim state at his borders. States that have been created by the generous help of the US of A, again during the late 60's and early 70's up till quite recently. And Assad is an ally to Iran and so we go back to the aforementioned highly unlikely alliance.

That was the main reason for the soviet intervention in Afghanistan 1979. Not wanting to bear the risk of Islamist extremism taking hold in the muslim parts of the Soviet empire. An intervention, by the way, happened because the Afghani government called for it. Already in 1978.

It's not the major reason for supporting Assad however. Assad is supported because the Russian fleet has it's one and only mediterranean base in Syria. They will never drop Assad because of that. Unless it is guaranteed that they can keep their base.

Same goes for annexing the Crimean peninsula. The Black Sea base was at the root of that happening.

Now, I'm not a fan of Putin and his policy, but it's not that different from what the USA does. It's all based on national interests and if the Russians believe, only a military intervention can secure their interests, they will do it. Again, same as the US.

The only difference is what's happening inside of Russia. The open persecution of the LGBT community, the silencing of every opposition. That's not happening in the USA as of yet and I don't believe it will happen anytime soon.

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21-07-2017, 03:00 AM (This post was last modified: 21-07-2017 03:05 AM by Ron NL-S.)
RE: How could Putin lose?
(20-07-2017 04:52 PM)abaris Wrote:  The only difference is what's happening inside of Russia. The open persecution of the LGBT community, the silencing of every opposition. That's not happening in the USA as of yet and I don't believe it will happen anytime soon.

That indeed is a very worrying development within Russia. And to be honest it has been a constant throughout their history as far as I know.
The US seems to be well on its way, judging by all those screaming religious nuts in the media, but I have no real idea of how serious that issue is? Care to enlighten me?

Looking at Europe I am seeing trouble brewing. Europeans (younger ones) generally are quite used to and acceptant of gays, LGBT or otherwise orientated, but with the tidal wave of islam sweeping over the continent, those groups face vigorous opposition. How that will play out is anyone's guess, but I am seeing a rift developing, where many of the commoners are reverting to more rightwing thinking (anti-immigration, anti-islam and we know the right did not stop there before) and the political (-ly correct) establishment welcoming and embracing these newcomers, glossing over all the trouble their arrival causes and shrieking their message regarding gender and migration through the media and losing touch with reality ever more. And that message might backfire on the non-just-male-and-female population, when the common people have had enough of the lies, deceit and corruption.

Back to the OP; here is Sweden many are worried about Putin's politics regarding the Baltic. Many fear that he might just lash out and Sweden has zero defense. No army, navy or airforce worth mentioning, because of downscaling through the years. No emergency reserves in either manpower, material or supplies. Nothing. Who ever decides to make a move, has the Swedes by the balls and this situation has driven Sweden into the clutches of anti-Russian politics, which just might turn out to become a self fulfilling prophecy.....
And now Putin has amassed a strong naval contingent in the baltic harbours, making everyone even more on edge.

Plus a newsflash; the world's largest nuclear sub, the Dmitrij Donskoj is making its way toward the Baltic Sea, passing Sweden today, being very visible and even China seems to be sending ships this way for joint exercises?

But all in all it would make no sense amassing such a strong naval presence if he would want to start hostilities? They'd be sitting ducks with no room to manoeuvre and no way of escaping.
Or it is a strong signal toward the US and NATO to NOT get involved or get any ideas for whatever Putin is planning next. Which would be exactly what the US would do, given the hawks in the Pentagon and Washington and the recent action in Syria or the South Chinese Sea.
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21-07-2017, 03:42 AM
RE: How could Putin lose?
Quote:tidal wave of islam sweeping over the continent
What are you talking about? Huh


Quote:But all in all it would make no sense amassing such a strong naval presence if he would want to start hostilities? They'd be sitting ducks with no room to manoeuvre and no way of escaping.
Or it is a strong signal toward the US and NATO to NOT get involved or get any ideas for whatever Putin is planning next. Which would be exactly what the US would do, given the hawks in the Pentagon and Washington and the recent action in Syria or the South Chinese Sea.
The baltic is a local theatre, cut off from the rest of the (naval) world. Sending a huge nuclear sub into the baltic makes absolutely no sense in military terms. The sub almost doesnt fit in there. Laugh out load
So, what is Putin trying to do? Well, hes doing what he can do, and hoping any suckers will fall for that cheap attempt or make any stupid mistake. Hes bluffing. If you are Putin and want to add pressure on Sweden/scandinavia on a naval scale, then moving ships around in the baltic is the only thing you can do. Yet even Putin knows that ships in the baltic are useless in a major conflict with modern weapons. Just look at the mutiny of the officer corps on the Storozhevoy and read how fast they were done with this (at the time very modern) ship.

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21-07-2017, 04:33 AM
RE: How could Putin lose?
(21-07-2017 03:42 AM)Deesse23 Wrote:  
Quote:tidal wave of islam sweeping over the continent
What are you talking about? Huh

Does the term "refugees" ring any bells?
Ok, tidal wave was a strong description. Leave the "tidal" out , then. Yet we still are facing an increasingly unpleasant presence of islam in our everyday lives. Rising numbers of muslims, failing integration, rising extremism, rising threat of violence. Resulting in a rising sense of insecurity, anger and racism/anti islam sentiments with the indigenous people.

As for the Baltic; yes, on a map it might seem local, but all the pieces are there to make it spiral out of control very fast and make it global. Today there is no such thing as a local conflict, when major players are involved.
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21-07-2017, 04:47 AM (This post was last modified: 21-07-2017 04:54 AM by abaris.)
RE: How could Putin lose?
(21-07-2017 03:00 AM)Ron NL-S Wrote:  Looking at Europe I am seeing trouble brewing. Europeans (younger ones) generally are quite used to and acceptant of gays, LGBT or otherwise orientated, but with the tidal wave of islam sweeping over the continent, those groups face vigorous opposition.

Hyperbole much? Tidal wave of Islam, give me a break. Are you from Europe or are you just drinking the kool aid or rightwing propaganda?

3 to 5 percent of any given country are muslims. Apart from Poland, to a certain degree Hungary and some southern European nations, Europe becomes more and more secular. Germany just introduced marriage for all. There's hardly a country left where at least civil unions aren't allowed.

(21-07-2017 04:33 AM)Ron NL-S Wrote:  Does the term "refugees" ring any bells?

Sorry, still ridiculous rightwing talking point.

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A little bit outdated. Germany should be blue by now, but that's Europe today. Green stands for civil unions, blue for equal marriage rights. Only grey doesn't grant same sex couples equal rights.

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21-07-2017, 05:04 AM
RE: How could Putin lose?
I am from Europe, yes and I work "in the business", so to speak. And I have dealt with many a refugee in the past both professionally and privately.

No wave you say?
Hmm.... explain to me then the attacks we have seen, the rise of farright politicians (even mainstream parties are adapting their programmes) and groups, the growing dissatisfaction and irritation among ordinary people, despite mainstream media trying to hush up what's going on?
Brexit was not just about leaving Europe....

Maybe you need to get your head out of the bubble, abaris, put aside your own kool aid or politically correct glasses and smell the coffee?

Of course I can only speak for what I see here in Sweden, from what I hear from my contacts in the Netherlands, Scandinavia or elsewhere in Europe. And I am using sources other than mainstream media. The tone in regular conversation, the increasing number of alternative groups and participants therein on facebook for instance.... You know, the voice of the common man, so often and easily shunned and shoved aside.
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21-07-2017, 05:10 AM
RE: How could Putin lose?
(21-07-2017 05:04 AM)Ron NL-S Wrote:  Hmm.... explain to me then the attacks we have seen, the rise of farright politicians (even mainstream parties are adapting their programmes) and groups, the growing dissatisfaction and irritation among ordinary people, despite mainstream media trying to hush up what's going on?
Brexit was not just about leaving Europe....

Has the word fear mongering any meaning to you? That explains how the far right is on the rise. Here as well as in the USA. No concepts, just the presentation of scapegoats. Just like in the goodl old days when the scapegoat was the jew. Now it's the muslim. The talking points and paroles are the exact same. Only one word had to be replaced.

Attacks swing both ways, by the way. Up until recently it has "only" been property damage, but not for a lack of trying. If you throw a molotow at a mosche you take the risk of hurting people. Incidents like these don't make the same fat headlines as Islamist attacks usually do. The red blooded brit steering his car into a crowd in front of a mosche was gone from media coverage within a day. The muslim community collecting for the victims of the parliament attack never made it into most headlines. And yet they were the one and only group starting a fundraiser at all.

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21-07-2017, 05:25 AM (This post was last modified: 21-07-2017 05:44 AM by Szuchow.)
RE: How could Putin lose?
(21-07-2017 04:33 AM)Ron NL-S Wrote:  Yet we still are facing an increasingly unpleasant presence of islam in our everyday lives.

Who is this we? What I'm facing is fear mongering used to enact authoritarian measures (Poland anti terrorist bill) and campaign of fear resulting in Poles being so afraid of refugees that they would sooner leave EU than accept them.

Quote:Rising numbers of muslims, failing integration, rising extremism, rising threat of violence. Resulting in a rising sense of insecurity, anger and racism/anti islam sentiments with the indigenous people.

Maybe that rising sense of insecurity has something to do with right wing scare tactics? Or maybe refugees are convenient scapegoat who allow politicians hide real problem behind wave of nationalist sentiments? Maybe it's easier to attack "tidal wave" of refugees than say something about economy?

Also about rising threat - Of the 3,252,493 refugees admitted from 1975 to the end of 2015, 20 were terrorists, which amounted to 0.00062 percent of the total. In other words, one terrorist entered as a refugee for every 162,625 refugees who were not terrorists. Refugees were not very successful at killing Americans in terrorist attacks. Of the 20, only three were successful in their attacks, killing a total of three people and imposing a total human cost of $45 million, or $13.84 per refugee visa issued. The three refugee terrorists were Cubans who committed their attacks in the 1970s and were admitted before the Refugee Act of 1980 created the modern rigorous refugee-screening procedures currently in place.

Sure, it's about USA but it should tell you something about role of media in overplaying threat posed by refugees.

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21-07-2017, 05:43 AM
RE: How could Putin lose?
(21-07-2017 05:25 AM)Szuchow Wrote:  Sure, it's about USA but it should tell you something about role of media in overplaying threat posed by refugees.

You get about the same figures looking at Europol statistics. A grand total of 3 to 5 percent of terrorist attacks are religiously motivated. The rest is down to other agendas.

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21-07-2017, 05:57 AM (This post was last modified: 21-07-2017 06:05 AM by Szuchow.)
RE: How could Putin lose?
(21-07-2017 05:43 AM)abaris Wrote:  
(21-07-2017 05:25 AM)Szuchow Wrote:  Sure, it's about USA but it should tell you something about role of media in overplaying threat posed by refugees.

You get about the same figures looking at Europol statistics. A grand total of 3 to 5 percent of terrorist attacks are religiously motivated. The rest is down to other agendas.

The TE-SAT* published today provides a concise overview of the nature of terrorism that the EU faced in 2016 and looks in detail at terrorist attacks that occurred: the largest number of attacks in which a terrorist affiliation could be identified were carried out by ethno-nationalist and separatist extremists (99). Attacks carried out by left-wing violent extremists have been on the rise since 2014; they reached a total of 27 in 2016, of which most (16) were reported by Italy. Although the total number of jihadist terrorist attacks decreased from 17 in 2015 to 13 attacks in 2016, of which 6 were linked to the so-called Islamic State (IS), 135 of the 142 victims of terrorist attacks in 2016 were killed in the 13 jihadist attacks.


To give some perspective number of deaths in traffic related accidents is 84,143**.


*EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report
**Stats for 2015

The first revolt is against the supreme tyranny of theology, of the phantom of God. As long as we have a master in heaven, we will be slaves on earth.

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