Poll: At what X do you find religion
10 percent certain
20 percent certain
30 percent certain
40 percent certain
50 percent certain
60 percent certain
70 percent certain
80 percent certain
90 percent certain
100 percent certain
I would rather go to hell then convert
[Show Results]
 
How much certainty do you need to find religion?
Post Reply
 
Thread Rating:
  • 0 Votes - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
21-09-2013, 07:01 PM (This post was last modified: 21-09-2013 07:07 PM by Slowminded.)
RE: How much certainty do you need to find religion?
GTO for Pascal's wager? I love it.

Unsure I would love it even more if I understood more of it.

. . . ................................ ......................................... . [Image: 2dsmnow.gif] Eat at Joe's
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
21-09-2013, 07:08 PM (This post was last modified: 22-09-2013 08:08 AM by Anjele.)
RE: How much certainty do you need to find religion?
I just love when a Christian thinks that insults, threats, and a generally bad attitude are the way to live their faith. Such wonderful examples of what they claim to stand for.

I'm not anti-social. I'm pro-solitude. Sleepy
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 1 user Likes Anjele's post
21-09-2013, 09:57 PM
RE: How much certainty do you need to find religion?
(21-09-2013 05:30 PM)Reltzik Wrote:  [intro to statistics]

Good stuff, that. 'Course, it only gets really interesting when you have imaginary probabilities. Ahem.


Any discussion of God begins with the request: define God.

It also stops there, because there is no coherent answer.

... this is my signature!
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 1 user Likes cjlr's post
22-09-2013, 02:33 AM
RE: How much certainty do you need to find religion?
(21-09-2013 09:57 PM)cjlr Wrote:  
(21-09-2013 05:30 PM)Reltzik Wrote:  [intro to statistics]

Good stuff, that. 'Course, it only gets really interesting when you have imaginary probabilities. Ahem.


Any discussion of God begins with the request: define God.

It also stops there, because there is no coherent answer.

Oh, come on. REAL mathematicians will then address the problem across the entire domain of all potential definitions, since the wimps won't own up settle down on a single one. And possibly get P = NP as a corollary.

"If I ignore the alternatives, the only option is God; I ignore them; therefore God." -- The Syllogism of Fail
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
22-09-2013, 04:50 AM
RE: How much certainty do you need to find religion?
(21-09-2013 02:55 PM)Slowminded Wrote:  So u are saying that it is rational to convert to the religion that has the scariest version of hell ? If some religion has some kind of ultimate hell, you would have to convert to that religion by default, because the consequences of getting it wrong are worst then making any other choice.

It doesn't matter how scary a religion's hell is if you think there isn't a chance it is the true religion. If you assess the probability of that religion being the one true religion at 0. You simply have no reason to convert(well you could have reasons but those would be special circumstance that we can ignore).

Now suppose you thought all religions were false with the exception of two distinct religions. Religion A doesn't have a hell, while religion B does. Further suppose you thought both religion A and religion B had an equal chance of being the one true religion and you put that chance at 10%.

If you don't convert to either religion A or B, you have to figure your going to hell 1 in 10 times. If you convert to religion A, you have to figure your going to hell 1 in 10 times. If you convert to religion B, you don't have to worry about going to hell(as long as you follow the rules of religion). If you are not willing to take on the risk of a 1 in 10 chance of going to hell, then you should convert to religion B.

This isn't Pascal's Wager by the way. In Pascal's wager the probability of any religion or atheism being correct is unknown to you. This wager assumes you somehow know the probability of a particular religion being the one true religion.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
22-09-2013, 04:53 AM
RE: How much certainty do you need to find religion?
(21-09-2013 07:08 PM)Anjele Wrote:  I just love when a Christian thinks that insults, threads, and a generally bad attitude are the way to live their faith. Such wonderful examples of what they claim to stand for.

Today, I have decided to just insult people who have insulted me. I'll start with you Anjele....Your mom had two cunts and one of them was you.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
22-09-2013, 05:01 AM
RE: How much certainty do you need to find religion?
(21-09-2013 05:30 PM)Reltzik Wrote:  EDIT: As anyone with a decent understanding of game theory will tell you, this is far from a complete model. For that, we'd need to turn the dial up to "Advanced". Let me know if you feel up to that.

Reltzik, I agree with you that this is more of an expected value problem then a game theory problem.

Thank you for correcting me on that.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
22-09-2013, 05:07 AM
RE: How much certainty do you need to find religion?
(21-09-2013 02:27 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote:  
(21-09-2013 01:39 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Maybe, but this isn't a thread about the number of members of a religion correlating with the likelihood of that religion being the one true religion. If you want to talk about that, go start that thread about that topic and maybe I will participate in it.

Really? You used the damn argument, then you say it's not allowed.

(21-09-2013 01:29 PM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  Perhaps the number of people practicing a religion should factor into your decision about how likely that religion is to be true, but that is the subject of another thread.



Troll
So BlowJob doesn't get the answers he thought he'd get for this inane thread, so he tries Plan B to engineer a different outcome.
Dodgy

Sucky Balls, I swear you must be retarded. Were you dropped on your head as baby? Never once did I use a crowd wisdom or argumentum ad populum in this thread.

Also I am very happy with the way this thread has turned out. Sure, you and a couple of other assholes have tried to tard it up, but for the most part it gone better than I expected.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
22-09-2013, 06:17 AM
RE: How much certainty do you need to find religion?
(22-09-2013 04:53 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(21-09-2013 07:08 PM)Anjele Wrote:  I just love when a Christian thinks that insults, threads, and a generally bad attitude are the way to live their faith. Such wonderful examples of what they claim to stand for.

Today, I have decided to just insult people who have insulted me. I'll start with you Anjele....Your mom had two cunts and one of them was you.

[Image: FrenchTaunt.gif]

YOUR MOTHER WAS A HAMSTER AND YOUR FATHER SMELT OF ELDERBERRIES!

Now go away or I shall taunt you a second time!

[Image: GrumpyCat_01.gif]
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
22-09-2013, 07:53 AM
RE: How much certainty do you need to find religion?
(22-09-2013 04:50 AM)Heywood Jahblome Wrote:  
(21-09-2013 02:55 PM)Slowminded Wrote:  So u are saying that it is rational to convert to the religion that has the scariest version of hell ? If some religion has some kind of ultimate hell, you would have to convert to that religion by default, because the consequences of getting it wrong are worst then making any other choice.

It doesn't matter how scary a religion's hell is if you think there isn't a chance it is the true religion. If you assess the probability of that religion being the one true religion at 0. You simply have no reason to convert(well you could have reasons but those would be special circumstance that we can ignore).

Now suppose you thought all religions were false with the exception of two distinct religions. Religion A doesn't have a hell, while religion B does. Further suppose you thought both religion A and religion B had an equal chance of being the one true religion and you put that chance at 10%.

If you don't convert to either religion A or B, you have to figure your going to hell 1 in 10 times. If you convert to religion A, you have to figure your going to hell 1 in 10 times. If you convert to religion B, you don't have to worry about going to hell(as long as you follow the rules of religion). If you are not willing to take on the risk of a 1 in 10 chance of going to hell, then you should convert to religion B.

This isn't Pascal's Wager by the way. In Pascal's wager the probability of any religion or atheism being correct is unknown to you. This wager assumes you somehow know the probability of a particular religion being the one true religion.

You just changed my proposition of religion A -"slap on the wrist" kind of hell vs religion B- worst possible hell, into your proposition of A - no hell vs B - hell , ( assuming that the chances of both religions to be true are the same ) which is basically the same thing, and u came to the same conclusion that it would be rational to convert to religion B because it has hell ( converting to religion B makes sure that I don't end up in hell ) , which is again the same conclusion that I made if I would abide to that logic.

I call that a Pascal's wager. Pascal's wager does not assume that the probability of any religion to be true vs atheism to be true is unknown. Pascal's wager is assuming the probability to be 50/50. The whole fallacy of the Pascal's wager lies in that assumption, that the probability of god existing vs probability that god doesn't exist is the same , and therefore it is rational to wager on the possibility of god existing to avoid negative consequences if we get it wrong.

But, this is the important bit for any practical use of your proposition.

Quote:This wager assumes you somehow know the probability of a particular religion being the one true religion.
You don't need to assume anything, I know the probability of any religion to be the one true religion. It is 0% .

. . . ................................ ......................................... . [Image: 2dsmnow.gif] Eat at Joe's
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply
Forum Jump: