Importance of Not Being Careless in What We Wish For
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22-03-2016, 07:24 PM
Importance of Not Being Careless in What We Wish For
Trump's emergence as a favorite for Oval Office occupancy makes my hair stand on end, so I'm pretty much glued to fivethirtyeight's up-to-the-minute prognostications looking for signs of enough sanity in the electorate to arrest this menace quickly. And I find again and again that I hope Nate's predictions are violently incorrect when projecting a Trump sweep - and therein lies a serious problem, because what I'm wishing for is that Nate's scientifically crafted models (which have proved astonishingly accurate across years of elections) are in this case useless as a Trump promise.

Now, on balance, what would be worse, a Trump presidency, or that science founders badly? I think mankind can weather 8 years of another moron at the helm of a government, especially when morons as heads of government has been the norm for mankind for millennia, but the collapse of a deliberately scientifically architected engine of forecasting would be a staggering loss. My wish that Nate's charts be wrong is NOT what I should be wishing for, much as it irritates my brain that so many other brains find Trump appealing. But, geez, does it take effort to quell that wish!
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22-03-2016, 09:29 PM
RE: Importance of Not Being Careless in What We Wish For
If Trump actually makes it into office, it'll be similar to what Bill Clinton experienced. When an F117A got shot down in Bosnia, he wanted to know why he didn't know about its existence, or about Nellis AFB. He was told that that was on a "need to know basis". The established political structure is a juggernaut that even "The Most Powerful Man in the World" can't change the course of, in any remotely quick fashion. Anything that a newly elected president wants takes two years to run through that mill, and makes it maybe. Obama came in "all guns blazing" against firearms possession, and was seen to weep what I would call tears of frustration in a recent press conference about legislation of firearms- in that case, IIRC, magazine size.

I see Trump as a loud clown who stumbles around on the world stage, spewing vomitous stupidity for all to see; more of an eye-rolling buffoon than a real leader. Sad.
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23-03-2016, 12:26 AM (This post was last modified: 23-03-2016 12:34 AM by Tartarus Sauce.)
RE: Importance of Not Being Careless in What We Wish For
Wait, what? Nate Silver is most certainly not predicting that Trump is a sweep for the general election, he referenced Predictwise's aggregate polls and betting market indicator for the general election in the latest podcast as being pretty close to what current conditions would suggest, with a 70-30 split in favor of Democrats winning the White House. He also recently published an article describing just how much on the knife's edge Trump is, and how even minor stumbles could result in him coming up 100 or more delegates short at the convention, which would result in a major shitshow, and that's putting it gently.

Plus, just examining the demographic spreads demonstrates that he would be entering a general as the severe underdog. He's basically the inverse of Obama, crushing it the one subgroup Obama did poorly with (uneducated white blue collar men) and sending the other demographics Obama coasted to victory on (women, minorities, millenials) fleeing in the other direction. In addition, he meets fierce upward resistance among educated whites, which is a demographic group the Democrats have been making further inroads with in each subsequent election cycle, which will offset many of his gains in the Rust Belt states people expect him to do well in, and his weakness among every other demographic group makes him all but untenable in the other swing states. He is atrociously unpopular with the broader electorate, no candidate of recent memory comes even close to the negative net favorabilities he has been raking up.

This ain't looking like the year of the Trump, you can calm down.

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23-03-2016, 12:45 AM (This post was last modified: 23-03-2016 12:54 AM by Airportkid.)
RE: Importance of Not Being Careless in What We Wish For
(23-03-2016 12:26 AM)Tartarus Sauce Wrote:  This ain't looking like the year of the Trump, you can calm down.

Oh, I know, I was just being dramatic - the point wasn't Trump so much as my wishing for the wrong thing. It's all too easy to hope an unpleasant forecast is incorrect, but if what produced the forecast is impeccable, hoping it's wrong is misdirected angst. Grit your teeth and hope it's RIGHT. And rechannel that angst into fixing whatever is producing the unwelcome outcome, knowing that one of the tools to help that project is a prediction engine you can count on.

(I just re-read my OP and see that it does imply Nate is projecting a Trump general election win; the sweeps I was referring to are Trump's performance in the primaries and caucuses, not his chances in the general, so I apologize for the mis-conception).
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24-03-2016, 05:59 AM
RE: Importance of Not Being Careless in What We Wish For
Isn't Nate Silver the statistical guru that said Trump WOULD NOT be the GOP nominee ("8% chance at most")?

Whatever model he uses has no bearing on the election this year. He isn't taking crossover appeal or the reverse Bradley effect into consideration.

General election polls this early in the game don't mean anything. Polls conducted in March 1980 had Jimmy Carter at 60% and Ronald Reagan at 30%. Carter continued to lead some polls well into September. It's a horse race on the GOP side right now. Until that settles down and the two front runners emerge and start battling each other the polls will be off. Nate Silvers model is probably useless this year.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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24-03-2016, 06:37 AM (This post was last modified: 24-03-2016 06:54 AM by onlinebiker.)
RE: Importance of Not Being Careless in What We Wish For
Perhaps Douglas Adams WAS a real visionary ----

quote

President of the Imperial Galactic Government

The President is very much a figurehead - he wields no real power whatsoever. He is apparently chosen by the government, but the qualities he is required to display are not those of leadership but those of finely judged outrage. For this reason the President is always a controversial choice, always an infuriating but fascinating character. His job is not to wield power but to draw attention away from it.

An orange sash is what the President of the Galaxy traditionally wears.

On those criteria Zaphod Beeblebrox is one of the most successful Presidents the Galaxy has ever had. He spent two of his ten Presidential years in prison for fraud. Very very few people realize that the President and the Government have virtually no power at all, and of these very few people only six know whence ultimate political power is wielded. Most of the others secretly believe that the ultimate decision-making process is handled by a computer. They couldn't be more wrong.



.............

unquote

Douglas Adams --- Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy


Simply change "sash" to complexion, and Zaphod Beeblebrox to Donald Trump --- and Doug pretty well nailed it..........................

.......................................

The difference between prayer and masturbation - is when a guy is through masturbating - he has something to show for his efforts.
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24-03-2016, 08:37 AM
RE: Importance of Not Being Careless in What We Wish For
You guys better not fuck this up by picking Trump or Hillary in the GE. You have a chance to stop being the laughing stock of the world, so don't waste it. Dodgy

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24-03-2016, 10:55 AM
RE: Importance of Not Being Careless in What We Wish For
(24-03-2016 08:37 AM)Vosur Wrote:  You guys better not fuck this up by picking Trump or Hillary in the GE. You have a chance to stop being the laughing stock of the world, so don't waste it. Dodgy

Sorry, but keeping up with whom the Jones' vote for is more important. Hobo

Don't let those gnomes and their illusions get you down. They're just gnomes and illusions.

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24-03-2016, 11:23 AM
RE: Importance of Not Being Careless in What We Wish For
(24-03-2016 08:37 AM)Vosur Wrote:  You guys better not fuck this up by picking Trump or Hillary in the GE. You have a chance to stop being the laughing stock of the world, so don't waste it. Dodgy

I don't know if I'd call our government a "laughing stock"...

That implies humor.................


It's more like a semi-intelligent fast zombie with rabies, AIDS and two hand grenades with the pins pulled.........................................

.......................................

The difference between prayer and masturbation - is when a guy is through masturbating - he has something to show for his efforts.
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