Investing under Trump
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09-12-2016, 07:30 AM
RE: Investing under Trump
(09-12-2016 06:16 AM)Full Circle Wrote:  How have markets performed under different presidents since 1900? Some better than others but the long-term trend has always been up.

Interactive graph:
http://www.macrotrends.net/2481/stock-ma...-president

The market has done better with Democrats at the helm, this might surprise some.

[Image: 2016-07-20-President-Market-Data.jpg]
http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterlazarof...60d69d5bfb

Here is an interesting read on how markets react to world events. Even though it isn’t a perfect analogy to the Trump presidency it still gives you a fair idea how markets react and act when events unfold.

http://etfdb.com/commodity-etfs/how-mark...ldStandard

The Bottom Line

"When it comes to digesting “bad news,” investors tend to exaggerate their negative reaction. What this means is that a worrisome development, such as a natural disaster, is likely to inspire an immediate bearish reaction that often leads to a negative performance that day. However, as the cases above demonstrate, negative overreactions are generally followed by a resumption of the trend that persisted prior to the “bad news.” In other words, worrisome events can rattle investors’ confidence in the short-term, but it’s important to analyze their significance before assuming the impact will have a long-lasting effect.”

As you get older and start using your retirement, you don't want huge fluctuations and your time frames of planning change completely. I already removed risk items (not just high risk items). 4 years become a very long time.

Picking what will remain stable under a completely unpredictable leader who thrives on conflict is difficult. Trump is not at all a run of the mill republican, he is a wild card. And short term has become more important. After a life time of investing, that is a very foreign way of having to look at things, at least for me. I guess the safest thing would be to get out of the market altogether.

[Image: dobie.png]Science is the process we've designed to be responsible for generating our best guess as to what the fuck is going on. Girly Man
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09-12-2016, 07:57 AM
RE: Investing under Trump
Watch what he criticises and buy that in the resulting dip. Buy low.

Give me your argument in the form of a published paper, and then we can start to talk.
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09-12-2016, 11:03 AM
RE: Investing under Trump
(08-12-2016 02:14 AM)morondog Wrote:  
(08-12-2016 01:36 AM)DLJ Wrote:  History will call it Twat-Tweet-Economics.

Twatonomics. Never underestimate the power of people wanting to shorten shit and add -onomics on the end of it.

Or Drainy-swampy-nomics.

We have to remember that what we observe is not nature herself, but nature exposed to our method of questioning ~ Werner Heisenberg
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09-12-2016, 11:06 AM
RE: Investing under Trump
(09-12-2016 07:30 AM)Dom Wrote:  
(09-12-2016 06:16 AM)Full Circle Wrote:  How have markets performed under different presidents since 1900? Some better than others but the long-term trend has always been up.

Interactive graph:
http://www.macrotrends.net/2481/stock-ma...-president

The market has done better with Democrats at the helm, this might surprise some.

[Image: 2016-07-20-President-Market-Data.jpg]
http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterlazarof...60d69d5bfb

Here is an interesting read on how markets react to world events. Even though it isn’t a perfect analogy to the Trump presidency it still gives you a fair idea how markets react and act when events unfold.

http://etfdb.com/commodity-etfs/how-mark...ldStandard

The Bottom Line

"When it comes to digesting “bad news,” investors tend to exaggerate their negative reaction. What this means is that a worrisome development, such as a natural disaster, is likely to inspire an immediate bearish reaction that often leads to a negative performance that day. However, as the cases above demonstrate, negative overreactions are generally followed by a resumption of the trend that persisted prior to the “bad news.” In other words, worrisome events can rattle investors’ confidence in the short-term, but it’s important to analyze their significance before assuming the impact will have a long-lasting effect.”

As you get older and start using your retirement, you don't want huge fluctuations and your time frames of planning change completely. I already removed risk items (not just high risk items). 4 years become a very long time.

Picking what will remain stable under a completely unpredictable leader who thrives on conflict is difficult. Trump is not at all a run of the mill republican, he is a wild card. And short term has become more important. After a life time of investing, that is a very foreign way of having to look at things, at least for me. I guess the safest thing would be to get out of the market altogether.

What do you consider "risk" items Dom?

“I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man’s reasoning powers are not above the monkey’s.”~Mark Twain
“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”~ Ambrose Bierce
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09-12-2016, 11:19 AM
RE: Investing under Trump
(09-12-2016 11:06 AM)Full Circle Wrote:  
(09-12-2016 07:30 AM)Dom Wrote:  As you get older and start using your retirement, you don't want huge fluctuations and your time frames of planning change completely. I already removed risk items (not just high risk items). 4 years become a very long time.

Picking what will remain stable under a completely unpredictable leader who thrives on conflict is difficult. Trump is not at all a run of the mill republican, he is a wild card. And short term has become more important. After a life time of investing, that is a very foreign way of having to look at things, at least for me. I guess the safest thing would be to get out of the market altogether.

What do you consider "risk" items Dom?

Volatile items. I don't have the time to wait things out anymore. The entire game has changed for me. The risk items I removed were housing investments and young companies... things I used to keep for their increased potential for profits, which comes with an increased risk, too. Overall I did well with those kinds of things, but now they can do too much damage. Instead of looking at years and decades, I now have to look at months and years. It changes everything.

Additionally, an unstable ruler who harbors grudges and thrives on conflict is not something you want around in my position. He can destabilize most any stock through stupid twitter comments or even war.

Since I have started to use the money (can't take it with me after all and I intend to enjoy it) I just pull out the riskier items first.

My peace of mind is gone though. Sad

[Image: dobie.png]Science is the process we've designed to be responsible for generating our best guess as to what the fuck is going on. Girly Man
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09-12-2016, 11:56 AM
RE: Investing under Trump
(09-12-2016 11:19 AM)Dom Wrote:  ... war ... and ... peace ... Sad

I think I read a book about that some years ago.

How certain are you of Trump's incompetence?

I'm sure you would find it ethically disquieting to invest in weapons but there might be an upsurge in these and these.

Just sayin'

Dodgy

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09-12-2016, 12:43 PM
RE: Investing under Trump
(09-12-2016 11:56 AM)DLJ Wrote:  
(09-12-2016 11:19 AM)Dom Wrote:  ... war ... and ... peace ... Sad

I think I read a book about that some years ago.

How certain are you of Trump's incompetence?

I'm sure you would find it ethically disquieting to invest in weapons but there might be an upsurge in these and these.

Just sayin'

Dodgy

With Trump, I am not certain of anything. Incompetence can be fixed by the people around him, so competence isn't the issue for me. In this context, it's simply unpredictability.

Ethics in investing is a whole other topic. So far I have not had cause to go against my personal ethics, and since I am past investing aggressively, I probably won't have to make ethically challenging decisions in the future.

[Image: dobie.png]Science is the process we've designed to be responsible for generating our best guess as to what the fuck is going on. Girly Man
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03-01-2017, 03:44 PM
RE: Investing under Trump
http://newsok.com/article/feed/1141813

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Donald Trump has singled out a number of companies individually before and after winning the U.S. presidential election. Here's a quick rundown of the businesses he's targeted and what he has said.

Amazon
"If @amazon ever had to pay fair taxes, its stock would crash and it would crumble like a paper bag. The @washingtonpost scam is saving it!" Trump tweeted on Dec. 7, 2015.

Carrier
"Big day on Thursday for Indiana and the great workers of that wonderful state. We will keep our companies and jobs in the U.S. Thanks Carrier." Trump tweeted on Nov. 29, 2016.

Ford Motor Co.
"Just got a call from my friend Bill Ford, Chairman of Ford, who advised me that he will be keeping the Lincoln plant in Kentucky - no Mexico. I worked hard with Bill Ford to keep the Lincoln plant in Kentucky. I owed it to the great State of Kentucky for their confidence in me!" Trump said in a series of tweets on Nov. 17, 2016

Lockheed Martin Corp. and Boeing Co.
"Based on the tremendous cost and cost overruns of the Lockheed Martin F-35, I have asked Boeing to price-out a comparable F-18 Super Hornet!" Trump tweeted on Dec. 22, 2016.

"Boeing is building a brand new 747 Air Force One for future presidents, but costs are out of control, more than $4 billion. Cancel order!" Trump tweeted on Dec. 6, 2016.

General Motors Co.
"General Motors is sending Mexican made model of Chevy Cruze to U.S. car dealers-tax free across border. Make in U.S.A. or pay big border tax!" Trump tweeted on Jan. 3, 2017.

Macy's Inc.
"Good news, disloyal @Macys stock is in a total free fall. Don't shop there for Christmas!" Trump tweeted on Dec. 4, 2015.

T-Mobile US
.@JohnLegere @TMobile John, focus on running your company, I think the service is terrible! Try hiring some good managers. Trump tweeted on Nov. 15, 2015

Rexnord
"Rexnord of Indiana is moving to Mexico and rather viciously firing all of its 300 workers. This is happening all over our country. No more!" Trump tweeted on Dec. 2, 2016.

Businesses in General
"The U.S. is going to substantialy reduce taxes and regulations on businesses, but any business that leaves our country for another country, fires its employees builds a new factory or plant in the other country, and then thinks it will sell its product back into the U.S....without retribution or consequence, is WRONG! There will be a tax on our soon to be strong border of 35% for these companies...wanting to sell their product, cars, A.C. units, etc., back across the border. This tax will make leaving financially difficult, but...but these companies are able to move between all 50 states and negotiate a tax free deal! Our country cannot keep losing these jobs, & won't. These companies are able to move between all 50 states, with no tax or tariff being charged. Please be forewarned prior to making a very....expensive mistake! THE UNITED STATES IS OPEN FOR BUSINESS." Trump said in a series of tweets on Dec. 4, 2016.

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[Image: dobie.png]Science is the process we've designed to be responsible for generating our best guess as to what the fuck is going on. Girly Man
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03-01-2017, 04:33 PM
RE: Investing under Trump




ya can't go wrong with canned food and shotguns...

Big Grin

.......................................

The difference between prayer and masturbation - is when a guy is through masturbating - he has something to show for his efforts.
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03-01-2017, 04:37 PM
RE: Investing under Trump
(03-01-2017 04:33 PM)onlinebiker Wrote:  ya can't go wrong with canned food and shotguns...

Big Grin

Liquor stores and mortuaries.

#sigh
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