Jeb Bush looking at running for 2016
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19-12-2014, 09:37 AM
RE: Jeb Bush looking at running for 2016
(17-12-2014 05:49 PM)Patriot10mm Wrote:  If Jeb were to some how win the republican nomination he will be the next president. Think about it. Florida has 29 electoral votes. He was highly regarded as governor of Florida. He won both governor elections by DOUBLE DIGITS. The winner of Florida has won the presidency every time in the last 40 years with the exception of one election, the 1992 election where Ross Perot took 19% of the popular vote. If Perot doesn't join that race Clinton never gets elected. Jeb is a lock to win Florida if he is the nominee, and I don't see a third party candidate that will take enough votes from him in other red states or swing states. He was a good governor. I'd vote for him for president and so will the majority of people in Florida. That's not good for democrats in 2016. He's the one guy dems fear the most because of his Florida connection.

I wouldn't be so sure. Jeb's opponents for the two times he was elected Governor were both weak candidates - Buddy MacKay and Bill McBride. And it certainly didn't hurt that Jeb is the son of a past President or, for the second election, the brother of a then-sitting President. Those could make even a strong candidate look weaker. Florida tends to lean Republican (although the demographic is changing) so winning there is easier for him than with the country as a whole.

If Hillary runs, she already has a large following and she too is tied to a past President. Granted she is a woman and, since no woman has ever been President, that certainly makes her task of winning tougher - but not impossible. And there may be other Democratic candidates with a chance too. No one really saw Obama coming before he started to gain popularity during the 2008 election.

Jeb also carries the baggage of the last two Bushes. The Republican party itself is having a lot of problems. It is not impossible to win the general election while losing Florida. This is not at all the shoe-in that you made it sound like.

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19-12-2014, 11:40 AM
RE: Jeb Bush looking at running for 2016
Couldn't be worse than Obama.

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19-12-2014, 12:27 PM
RE: Jeb Bush looking at running for 2016
(19-12-2014 09:37 AM)Impulse Wrote:  
(17-12-2014 05:49 PM)Patriot10mm Wrote:  If Jeb were to some how win the republican nomination he will be the next president. Think about it. Florida has 29 electoral votes. He was highly regarded as governor of Florida. He won both governor elections by DOUBLE DIGITS. The winner of Florida has won the presidency every time in the last 40 years with the exception of one election, the 1992 election where Ross Perot took 19% of the popular vote. If Perot doesn't join that race Clinton never gets elected. Jeb is a lock to win Florida if he is the nominee, and I don't see a third party candidate that will take enough votes from him in other red states or swing states. He was a good governor. I'd vote for him for president and so will the majority of people in Florida. That's not good for democrats in 2016. He's the one guy dems fear the most because of his Florida connection.

I wouldn't be so sure. Jeb's opponents for the two times he was elected Governor were both weak candidates - Buddy MacKay and Bill McBride. And it certainly didn't hurt that Jeb is the son of a past President or, for the second election, the brother of a then-sitting President. Those could make even a strong candidate look weaker. Florida tends to lean Republican (although the demographic is changing) so winning there is easier for him than with the country as a whole.

If Hillary runs, she already has a large following and she too is tied to a past President. Granted she is a woman and, since no woman has ever been President, that certainly makes her task of winning tougher - but not impossible. And there may be other Democratic candidates with a chance too. No one really saw Obama coming before he started to gain popularity during the 2008 election.

Jeb also carries the baggage of the last two Bushes. The Republican party itself is having a lot of problems. It is not impossible to win the general election while losing Florida. This is not at all the shoe-in that you made it sound like.
While I can agree that it would be an uphill climb for Jeb Bush, I disagree with your assertion that the republican party is having a lot of problems. Did you pay attention to the 2014 elections? Not just the federal races. The local races went very well for republicans. Michigan has turned from a blue state to a red state. Illinois is starting to go right as well, now with a republican governor. The problem democrats have is people that agree with them on most issues are sick of the social failures. These normally blue states are sick of the failed policies that have lead to violent crime, jobs moving out of state, and gun laws that leave them unable to protect themselves. The people of Chicago and Detroit can't take it anymore, and the rest of their states population are fed up as well. The democratic party is becoming the party of the far left and black people. The moderates are swinging right. Recent poll numbers show working class whites approval rating of Obama and democrats was 27%. Republican house members are at their highest numbers in 75 years.

The republican party might be at odds over some things, but make no mistake, the voters have the final word.

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19-12-2014, 02:13 PM (This post was last modified: 19-12-2014 02:27 PM by Impulse.)
RE: Jeb Bush looking at running for 2016
It's more than being "at odds". There are deep divisions within the Republican party right now.

For example:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/republican-i...1403480017

Yes, of course, the voters have the final word (well, actually the electoral college) so we shall see.

Edit:
Here's the whole article I linked above. It seems to require a login in certain situations.
Quote:GOP Infighting Shows No Sign of Easing Up
Mississippi Primary, Other Races Indicate Intraparty Disagreements Will Be Hard to Bridge
By
Patrick O'Connor and
Janet Hook

June 22, 2014 7:33 p.m. ET

PEARL, Miss.—The battles that played out in Republican primaries this spring have done little to resolve the party's divisions, with differences over both tactics and policy still stark.

Travels around Mississippi, which holds a runoff Tuesday to pick a GOP Senate candidate, show, in essence, two different parties.

State Sen. Chris McDaniel has galvanized conservative support in his bid to defeat Thad Cochran, a 36-year Senate veteran. Mr. McDaniel draws crowds packed with political newcomers and conservative activists drawn to the tea-party message of small government and reduced federal spending.

"Sen. Cochran votes with the establishment—Republican and Democratic," said Mary Jones of Brandon, a tea-party sympathizer attending a McDaniel event in Pearl last week. "I don't like that and I don't like big government."

Mr. Cochran is emphasizing the importance of his seniority to delivering federal dollars to the poverty-riddled state. His crowds are thick with state and local officials: mayors whose schools depend on federal aid; business leaders who want road building and infrastructure that keeps the Mississippi River within its banks.

Bill Lampton, a senior executive of Ergon Inc., a refiner and distributor of petroleum products, introduced the senator at an event last week in Vicksburg. He said the region would have been devastated by flooding three years ago if not for federal maintenance of the river's defenses. "It was a miracle we didn't have a breech in the levees," he said.

In races elsewhere this spring, establishment Republicans were often successful. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell fended off a tea party-backed challenger in Kentucky after a concerted and expensive campaign. Sens. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas had an easier time of dispatching their challengers, in part by courting conservatives. In the fight for an open Senate seat in Georgia, party leaders were relieved to see the most-conservative candidates in a crowded field sidelined.

But the tea party won a big scalp when it knocked off House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R., Va.), and Mr. Cochran appears vulnerable.

That mixed record suggests that the power struggle within the party will endure long after the 2014 midterm primaries.

Republicans remain poised to do well in November thanks in part to the large number of competitive Senate races in states that President Barack Obama lost in 2012. Activists and GOP elected officials view the intraparty debate as a necessary prelude to the presidential nominating contest in 2016 that may give more shape to a party without a figurehead.

"The friction is going to save us, not kill us," said former Rep. Chris Chocola of Indiana, president of the conservative Club for Growth, which has poured millions into Mississippi on Mr. McDaniel's behalf. "The only way you clarify these things is to have a presidential candidate who is unapologetic in their policy views and competent in delivering them."

Incoming House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy on Sunday played down any divisions within the Republican Party, saying internal disagreements are about tactics, not policy.

"We are all conservatives," he told Fox News. "The only thing we ever battle over are the tactics, not ideology."

Polling, however, suggests a difference that won't be easy to bridge. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found distinct differences in opinion—on immigration, the environment and the role of the tea party itself—between Republicans who identify with the tea-party movement and those who don't.

In the poll, 43% of self-identified Republicans considered themselves tea-party supporters and 43% didn't. Those Republicans aligned with the tea party were more inclined to believe immigration hurts the country and far more skeptical of the need to address global warming.

"There is an internal schism within the GOP," said Democratic pollster Fred Yang, who conducts the Journal poll with Republican Bill McInturff.

The conundrum for party leaders in 2014 is that conservatives are fueling enthusiasm for the midterm elections—71% of tea-party Republicans, versus 49% of all other Republicans, expressed high levels of support for the fall campaigns—just as Americans have less favorable views of the tea-party movement than they had in 2010.

"The chunk of the Republican coalition that is the most cranked up, and it is arguably the face of the Republican Party, has very different standing than it had four years ago," Mr. McInturff said.

But for many Republicans, the differences are still more about tone than substance.

"We have a portion of the electorate that thinks if you pound the desk harder you somehow win the argument," said Rep. Tom Cole (R., Okla.). "But there's nothing wrong with the Republicans we have in Washington. There are just not enough of them."

@DonaldTrump, Patriotism is not honoring your flag no matter what your country/leader does. It's doing whatever it takes to make your country the best it can be as long as its not violent.
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19-12-2014, 02:30 PM
RE: Jeb Bush looking at running for 2016
(19-12-2014 12:27 PM)Patriot10mm Wrote:  
(19-12-2014 09:37 AM)Impulse Wrote:  I wouldn't be so sure. Jeb's opponents for the two times he was elected Governor were both weak candidates - Buddy MacKay and Bill McBride. And it certainly didn't hurt that Jeb is the son of a past President or, for the second election, the brother of a then-sitting President. Those could make even a strong candidate look weaker. Florida tends to lean Republican (although the demographic is changing) so winning there is easier for him than with the country as a whole.

If Hillary runs, she already has a large following and she too is tied to a past President. Granted she is a woman and, since no woman has ever been President, that certainly makes her task of winning tougher - but not impossible. And there may be other Democratic candidates with a chance too. No one really saw Obama coming before he started to gain popularity during the 2008 election.

Jeb also carries the baggage of the last two Bushes. The Republican party itself is having a lot of problems. It is not impossible to win the general election while losing Florida. This is not at all the shoe-in that you made it sound like.
While I can agree that it would be an uphill climb for Jeb Bush, I disagree with your assertion that the republican party is having a lot of problems. Did you pay attention to the 2014 elections? Not just the federal races. The local races went very well for republicans. Michigan has turned from a blue state to a red state. Illinois is starting to go right as well, now with a republican governor. The problem democrats have is people that agree with them on most issues are sick of the social failures. These normally blue states are sick of the failed policies that have lead to violent crime, jobs moving out of state, and gun laws that leave them unable to protect themselves. The people of Chicago and Detroit can't take it anymore, and the rest of their states population are fed up as well. The democratic party is becoming the party of the far left and black people. The moderates are swinging right. Recent poll numbers show working class whites approval rating of Obama and democrats was 27%. Republican house members are at their highest numbers in 75 years.

The republican party might be at odds over some things, but make no mistake, the voters have the final word.

We keep hearing about how the Republican party is failing and how they are killing themselves politically. When the Republicans won a few months ago liberal commentators totally dismissed the election, and some even said that the Republican victory was a Republican loss.




Yet that simply isn't the case. We are told that if the Republicans don't agree to open borders then they will fall. That only if they agree to open borders will latins vote for them (liberals seem to think that the Latin vote will decide everything). Yet that isn't happening at all. Liberals continue to push gun control. Most recently they have gone full lynch-mob on the supposed rapists, with many feminists even arguing against the right to be presumed innocent. Third-wave feminism is another ideology the public clearly doesn't want. Even with the media feeding Americans a steady diet of leftist nonsense they still aren't buying it.

It is those who say "men are tired of freedom" that are the first to discover that they will kill and die for it.

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19-12-2014, 03:08 PM (This post was last modified: 19-12-2014 04:35 PM by ClydeLee.)
RE: Jeb Bush looking at running for 2016
(19-12-2014 12:27 PM)Patriot10mm Wrote:  
(19-12-2014 09:37 AM)Impulse Wrote:  I wouldn't be so sure. Jeb's opponents for the two times he was elected Governor were both weak candidates - Buddy MacKay and Bill McBride. And it certainly didn't hurt that Jeb is the son of a past President or, for the second election, the brother of a then-sitting President. Those could make even a strong candidate look weaker. Florida tends to lean Republican (although the demographic is changing) so winning there is easier for him than with the country as a whole.

If Hillary runs, she already has a large following and she too is tied to a past President. Granted she is a woman and, since no woman has ever been President, that certainly makes her task of winning tougher - but not impossible. And there may be other Democratic candidates with a chance too. No one really saw Obama coming before he started to gain popularity during the 2008 election.

Jeb also carries the baggage of the last two Bushes. The Republican party itself is having a lot of problems. It is not impossible to win the general election while losing Florida. This is not at all the shoe-in that you made it sound like.
While I can agree that it would be an uphill climb for Jeb Bush, I disagree with your assertion that the republican party is having a lot of problems. Did you pay attention to the 2014 elections? Not just the federal races. The local races went very well for republicans. Michigan has turned from a blue state to a red state. Illinois is starting to go right as well, now with a republican governor. The problem democrats have is people that agree with them on most issues are sick of the social failures. These normally blue states are sick of the failed policies that have lead to violent crime, jobs moving out of state, and gun laws that leave them unable to protect themselves. The people of Chicago and Detroit can't take it anymore, and the rest of their states population are fed up as well. The democratic party is becoming the party of the far left and black people. The moderates are swinging right. Recent poll numbers show working class whites approval rating of Obama and democrats was 27%. Republican house members are at their highest numbers in 75 years.

The republican party might be at odds over some things, but make no mistake, the voters have the final word.

Your depictions of these midwest states really shows you have an assertive view of what you're talking about... it doesn't always come out to being accurate. Nothing about Illinois is shifting red, for decades it's been a steady rate of Chicagoland is liberal but the rest of Illinois isn't despite the college area pockets. It's a large chunk of farm land and a republican Governor/Senator is never a rare thing. Unless you depicted change as something happening within a single decade as George Ryan who was recently released from prison was a republican Governor too.

Media swing to instill some hatred against some forces it always causing a back and forth reaction in this political circle. The only vast difference is one group is relying on older populations more and the other on younger populations more at this juncture. Few examples of wins by usual outliers isn't a large significant factor of change. Especially it's not significant to not all that strongly far conservative states like Iowa for a woman to win. A state that years ago already embraced gay rights ahead of many so called left states too. Nothing is really shifting around in some vast way. Thinking some party lines are really changing or better off than the other is misguided to the massive similarity of what actually happens.

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19-12-2014, 04:25 PM
RE: Jeb Bush looking at running for 2016
(19-12-2014 03:08 PM)ClydeLee Wrote:  
(19-12-2014 12:27 PM)Patriot10mm Wrote:  While I can agree that it would be an uphill climb for Jeb Bush, I disagree with your assertion that the republican party is having a lot of problems. Did you pay attention to the 2014 elections? Not just the federal races. The local races went very well for republicans. Michigan has turned from a blue state to a red state. Illinois is starting to go right as well, now with a republican governor. The problem democrats have is people that agree with them on most issues are sick of the social failures. These normally blue states are sick of the failed policies that have lead to violent crime, jobs moving out of state, and gun laws that leave them unable to protect themselves. The people of Chicago and Detroit can't take it anymore, and the rest of their states population are fed up as well. The democratic party is becoming the party of the far left and black people. The moderates are swinging right. Recent poll numbers show working class whites approval rating of Obama and democrats was 27%. Republican house members are at their highest numbers in 75 years.

The republican party might be at odds over some things, but make no mistake, the voters have the final word.

Your depictions of these midwest states really shows you have an assertive view of thinking you know what you're talking about... it doesn't always come out to being accurate. Nothing about Illinois is shifting red, for decades it's been a steady rate of Chicagoland is liberal but the rest of Illinois isn't despite the college area pockets. It's a large chunk of farm land and a republican Governor/Senator is never a rare thing. Unless you depicted change as something happening within a single decade as George Ryan who was recently released from prison was a republican Governor too.

Media swing to instill some hatred against some forces it always causing a back and forth reaction in this political circle. The only vast difference is one group is relying on older populations more and the other on younger populations more at this juncture. Few examples of wins by usual outliers isn't a large significant factor of change. Especially it's not significant to not all that strongly far conservative states like Iowa for a woman to win. A state that years ago already embraced gay rights ahead of many so called left states too. Nothing is really shifting around in some vast way. Thinking some party lines are really changing or better off than the other is misguided to the massive similarity of what actually happens.

"People in Detroit are made because they can't use guns to defend themselves" is certainly a... novel, shall we say, hypothesis...

Notwithstanding the nonsensical extrapolation of midterm elections on ~35% turnout to presidential elections at ~55% turnout...

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20-12-2014, 02:27 AM
RE: Jeb Bush looking at running for 2016
(19-12-2014 11:40 AM)Res Publica Wrote:  Couldn't be worse than Obama.

Oh, the brother of the supreme fuck-up-in-chief of our generation can't possibly be worse? Do tell... Drinking Beverage

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20-12-2014, 09:20 AM
RE: Jeb Bush looking at running for 2016
What a cliche name.

Does he have a brother called Cletus Bush?

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20-12-2014, 10:10 AM
RE: Jeb Bush looking at running for 2016
(20-12-2014 09:20 AM)The Germans are coming Wrote:  What a cliche name.

Does he have a brother called Cletus Bush?

Don't forget Jethro... Rolleyes

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