Knife Fight
Post Reply
 
Thread Rating:
  • 0 Votes - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
10-07-2016, 10:06 AM
Knife Fight
Nate Silver's models put Trump's chances at just over 20%, Hillary's at just under 80%. The models do not represent the electorate disposition now but its projected disposition in November. For a guy like me, who shudders that humanity permits so ignorant a charlatan as a Trump a chance at political power, Nate's models give hope that humanity hasn't entirely derailed.

But that 80/20 is balanced on a knife edge and could be easily tipped - by either candidate, if sharp enough. I don't think Trump is - but his staff might be. The knife is the electoral college, and the cutting edge is the states where the "cost" per electoral vote is small, where "cost" is the margin of preference. Take New Mexico. It prefers Hillary by a margin of 10 points; it has 5 electoral votes. Its "cost" per vote is thus 2 preference points. That's a lot - so much that Trump would be wasting his time trying to do anything in New Mexico.

Trump is shy the 270 electoral votes he needs by 75 votes. If he were sharp (or his staff), he'd be focusing on the states that'd give him those 75 votes at the least "cost".

Surprisingly, there are only four states that'd accomplish that for him:

North Carolina would deliver 15 votes at a "cost" of 0.13 preference points,
Florida 29 votes at a "cost" of 0.17 preference points,
Ohio 18 votes at a "cost" of 0.22, and
Pennsylvania at a "cost" of 0.3.

The preference margins are 2, 5, 4 and 6 respectively. Nothing insurmountable.

Now, all that assumes Hillary wouldn't be doing the same thing (and she's sharp enough). Were she to lose NC, FL, OH & PA to a Trump operation at maximum focus, she'd only have to capture 5 states, AZ, GA, TX, MO & SC - at a significantly lower "cost" than Trump's. AZ's cost to Hillary is presently zero; its Trump margin is zero.

All of which is to say that it's a long way to November and, like the movie title said, "There Will Be Blood".
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 2 users Like Airportkid's post
10-07-2016, 10:15 AM
RE: Knife Fight
Silver was way off on the Republican primaries. I think he generally does a good job and he tends to be very objective in his modeling but his models completely underestimated the impact of Trump.

We are ~2 weeks from the Republican convention and about a month from the Democrat one (and heaven help me, it's right here in Philadelphia :sadcryface2Smile . We also just got the news on the email investigation and a potential perjury investigation is looming (although I don't think it's going anywhere).

I think it's just too early to start doing predictions. A whole lot can and will happen between now and November. Once we start getting to the actual debates, I'll start to worry about polls and predictions.

Shackle their minds when they're bent on the cross
When ignorance reigns, life is lost
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 1 user Likes BnW's post
10-07-2016, 10:32 AM
RE: Knife Fight
(10-07-2016 10:15 AM)BnW Wrote:  Silver was way off on the Republican primaries. I think he generally does a good job and he tends to be very objective in his modeling but his models completely underestimated the impact of Trump.

We are ~2 weeks from the Republican convention and about a month from the Democrat one (and heaven help me, it's right here in Philadelphia :sadcryface2Smile . We also just got the news on the email investigation and a potential perjury investigation is looming (although I don't think it's going anywhere).

I think it's just too early to start doing predictions. A whole lot can and will happen between now and November. Once we start getting to the actual debates, I'll start to worry about polls and predictions.

There is only one poll that counts and that is the one you and I can participate in early in November.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 1 user Likes Born Again Pagan's post
10-07-2016, 11:23 AM
RE: Knife Fight
Rumors are everywhere that Trump's #1 VP choice right now is retired Army officer Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn.

I think he's going to make destroying ISIS his top priority and back off the immigration (not all the way though).

It's a smart idea. Americans are afraid of ISIS striking on American soil. So far we've only seen ISIS inspired attacks. He might try to link Hillary to Obama and the failure of this administration to stop the rise of ISIS.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
[Image: 25397spaceballs.gif]
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
10-07-2016, 12:16 PM
RE: Knife Fight
(10-07-2016 10:15 AM)BnW Wrote:  Silver was way off on the Republican primaries.

He did a nice analysis of his screw up though.

How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump

#sigh
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
10-07-2016, 06:25 PM
RE: Knife Fight
(10-07-2016 11:23 AM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  He might try to link Hillary to Obama and the failure of this administration to stop the rise of ISIS.

No way - how could Trump do that?

Laugh out loadBig GrinTongueThumbsupShy

Humanism - ontological doctrine that posits that humans define reality
Theism - ontological doctrine that posits a supernatural entity creates and defines reality
Atheism - political doctrine opposed to theist doctrine in public policy
I am right, and you are wrong - I hope you die peacefullyCool
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
10-07-2016, 06:35 PM
RE: Knife Fight
The title got me all excited. I thought it was gonna be a cool video.

I don't suppose this projection have even a 1% chance to a non major party puppet. You know, someone who might actually be presidential material?

'Murican Canadian
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply
Forum Jump: