Korea
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08-08-2017, 02:25 PM
RE: Korea
Personnaly, I woudn't be surprised if, by the end of this decade, the North Korean regime would fall. I know they have been predicted to die since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the famine of the late 90's and early 2000's, but they managed to pull through these catastrophies and maintained an air of relative stability. We know so little about what's going on inside North Korea that its hard to speculate on its inner stability. One thing is for sure, it will not last forever. Either it will collapse on its own weight or it will be destroyed. Adding nuclear weapons in the equation only augment the risk of collapse as they cannot be ignored as easily as before.

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08-08-2017, 02:27 PM
RE: Korea
(08-08-2017 02:24 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(08-08-2017 01:29 PM)Dom Wrote:  Trump says:

"They will be met with fire and fury the likes of which the world has never seen before."

A play on words. It's meant for Kim to think Trump means we'll launch nukes first (we won't). In reality "fire" just means they are about to seriously meet the U.S. war machine. Bombed to hell.

General Mattis is going to show North Korea why his nickname is mad dog.

And what's to stop them from retaliating with nukes? Remember, their leader is a lunatic. Of course, we would ultimately "win" such a war, but at enormous cost. I would prefer to solve the problem in other ways (not saying that I possess such a solution, but we should at least be looking for one, and not just blustering with threats of violence).

ETA: Note that Trump is also a lunatic. You may be confident that he won't use nukes. I'm not so confident.
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08-08-2017, 02:31 PM
RE: Korea
Frankly, we should be taking advantage of this situation to reshape security in Southeast Asia. We could get Japan and S Korea to significantly upgrade their military capabilities as a result of N Korea's programs. China will find it has to deal with an increased military capability among US allies in its neighborhood as a price for playing N Korea against the US too far and for too long. That is already starting to happen, and probably a significant reason both China and Russia supported the last UN resolution.
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08-08-2017, 02:32 PM (This post was last modified: 08-08-2017 02:35 PM by epronovost.)
RE: Korea
(08-08-2017 02:27 PM)Grasshopper Wrote:  
(08-08-2017 02:24 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  A play on words. It's meant for Kim to think Trump means we'll launch nukes first (we won't). In reality "fire" just means they are about to seriously meet the U.S. war machine. Bombed to hell.

General Mattis is going to show North Korea why his nickname is mad dog.

And what's to stop them from retaliating with nukes? Remember, their leader is a lunatic. Of course, we would ultimately "win" such a war, but at enormous cost. I would prefer to solve the problem in other ways (not saying that I possess such a solution, but we should at least be looking for one, and not just blustering with threats of violence).

The blustering and threat of violence from both side comes from the fact that neither camp openly desire a war knowing that cost to North Korea would be defeat, but the prize of the winner would be spoiled by high casualties amongst key regional allies and by the fact that neither side has any good strategy on how to win the conflict in a non-violent way. They can only hope that one side will ''chicken away''. Its a 6th grader bully level of strategy applied to the international level.

@BryanS

Japan already has an extremely powerful military and has intense internal pressure to make it into a standard military instead of the purely defensive force it is right now. South Koreans are far from being defenseless either. They have one of the largest army in the world and unlike that of North Korea they are well armed, well trained and well fed.

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08-08-2017, 02:35 PM
RE: Korea
Trump hasn't shown me through any of his previous behavior that he knows the difference between reality and a reality show.
I hope the next time he says "you're fired" he's not referring to a nuke.
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08-08-2017, 02:35 PM
RE: Korea
(08-08-2017 02:32 PM)epronovost Wrote:  
(08-08-2017 02:27 PM)Grasshopper Wrote:  And what's to stop them from retaliating with nukes? Remember, their leader is a lunatic. Of course, we would ultimately "win" such a war, but at enormous cost. I would prefer to solve the problem in other ways (not saying that I possess such a solution, but we should at least be looking for one, and not just blustering with threats of violence).

The blustering and threat of violence from both side comes from the fact that neither camp openly desire a war knowing that cost to North Korea would be defeat, but the prize of the winner would be spoiled by high casualties amongst key regional allies and by the fact that neither side has any good strategy on how to win the conflict in a non-violent way. They can only hope that one side will ''chicken away''. Its a 6th grader bully level of strategy applied to the international level.

Yeah, but its stupid to be 5'3" and 95 pounds and try to bully the captain of the football team.

Eventually you get swatted like a fly.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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08-08-2017, 02:39 PM
RE: Korea
(08-08-2017 02:35 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(08-08-2017 02:32 PM)epronovost Wrote:  The blustering and threat of violence from both side comes from the fact that neither camp openly desire a war knowing that cost to North Korea would be defeat, but the prize of the winner would be spoiled by high casualties amongst key regional allies and by the fact that neither side has any good strategy on how to win the conflict in a non-violent way. They can only hope that one side will ''chicken away''. Its a 6th grader bully level of strategy applied to the international level.

Yeah, but its stupid to be 5'3" and 95 pounds and try to bully the captain of the football team.

Eventually you get swatted like a fly.

You're willing to sacrifice millions of Japanese and South Korean lives (and quite possibly American lives as well) just to say "we won, nyah nyah nyah!"? Maybe it'll come to that with no other reasonable option, but it's disturbing that you're so blase about it.
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08-08-2017, 02:42 PM
RE: Korea
(08-08-2017 02:39 PM)Grasshopper Wrote:  
(08-08-2017 02:35 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  Yeah, but its stupid to be 5'3" and 95 pounds and try to bully the captain of the football team.

Eventually you get swatted like a fly.

You're willing to sacrifice millions of Japanese and South Korean lives (and quite possibly American lives as well) just to say "we won, nyah nyah nyah!"? Maybe it'll come to that with no other reasonable option, but it's disturbing that you're so blase about it.

Well I live on the western side of the U.S.

A madman has threatened to strike the U.S. with nukes. Now it comes out that he most likely possesses the ability to do so.

We can't wait to see if he's bluffing.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Lord Dark Helmet
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08-08-2017, 02:50 PM
RE: Korea
(08-08-2017 02:32 PM)epronovost Wrote:  @BryanS

Japan already has an extremely powerful military and has intense internal pressure to make it into a standard military instead of the purely defensive force it is right now. South Koreans are far from being defenseless either. They have one of the largest army in the world and unlike that of North Korea they are well armed, well trained and well fed.

Agreed on your points in general. But by treaty with the US, S Korea is limited on the types of weapons it may possess without first obtaining US permission. Likewise, Japan's constitution limits the orientation of its military to defense only. Both countries have been openly debating these topics with an eye on revisiting/expanding their militaries.

S Korea is considering new missiles that would coincidentally be able to strike a much larger portion of China. The more aggressive conservative party already is calling for the US to forward deploy nuclear weapons on their soil while the dovish president in power now backed off his opposition to missile defense systems being stationed in their country, instead calling for expansion of the THAAD system. Japan is openly debating scrapping their constitutional limitations on their military positioning--it's not a popular idea just yet, but just a few years ago debating the topic like this would not be done.

An old fashioned arms race in Southeast Asia would disproportionately benefit the US in this situation and would be another form of pressure on China (and to some extent Russia) to reign in N Korea.
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08-08-2017, 02:50 PM
RE: Korea
(08-08-2017 02:42 PM)Lord Dark Helmet Wrote:  
(08-08-2017 02:39 PM)Grasshopper Wrote:  You're willing to sacrifice millions of Japanese and South Korean lives (and quite possibly American lives as well) just to say "we won, nyah nyah nyah!"? Maybe it'll come to that with no other reasonable option, but it's disturbing that you're so blase about it.

Well I live on the western side of the U.S.

A madman has threatened to strike the U.S. with nukes. Now it comes out that he most likely possesses the ability to do so.

We can't wait to see if he's bluffing.

So you're afraid that he might take it into his loony head to nuke us? And your solution is to take action that practically guarantees that he will nuke us? Forgive me if I don't see the logic of that.
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