Lottery/Set probability - Need help with a math problem
Post Reply
 
Thread Rating:
  • 0 Votes - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
29-07-2017, 06:22 PM
Lottery/Set probability - Need help with a math problem
I picked three sets of numbers in a lottery, so the numbers would be five non-repeating numbers from 1 to 47, and one hotball number 1 to 19.

Now I pick numbers for three different tickets or three different sets, the numbers in each of these sets are almost the same except for one number. So the numbers in the three tickets would be like this :

1st ticket -1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Hotball 1
2nd ticket -1, 2, 3, 4, 6 Hotball 1
3rd ticket -1, 2, 3, 4, 7 Hotball 1

This is a 1-47 draw on the first five numbers, a 1-19 draw on the hotball number. So the odds are fairly straightforward, only one ticket can win the jackpot (5 numbers match and the hotball), the next prize requires 5 numbers with no hotball match, this is still straightforward looking at the odds charts.

The 3rd level prize is where it gets complicated, it requires 4 numbers and a hotball match. So I bought these tickets with 4 of the same numbers and the same hotball number, let’s say I win this prize, what are the odds that my other two tickets will win?

If the changing number at the end on my tickets (5,6,7) are the number that is mismatched out of my 5 numbers, then all 3 of my tickets will win. If one of the regular matching numbers are mismatched (1, 2, 3, 4) then only one ticket will win.

So, the odds of 1 winning ticket for the 3rd level prize is 3 out of 138,785, but what are the odds for all three tickets winning based from the commonality between the sets?

An addendum, if I win the jackpot, I will win the 3rd level prize on my other 2 tickets, without impacting my odds, the similar number set selection enables the other two tickets to win on the 3rd level and lower prizes.

If I win the 3rd level prize, there’s a good chance at winning the 4th level prize and a 100% chance at winning the 5th level prize with the other two tickets.

Yes, I know the odds are fantastic, but I enjoy trying to work out these problems and it provides me with entertainment. With 3 tickets, my odds are 3-in-29,144,841 to win the jackpot, 3-in-1,619,157 for the 2nd prize, 3-in-138,785 to win the 3rd prize.

The odds are zero if I don't buy a ticket.

Here is the odds table:

[Image: hotlotto_matrix_2013.jpg]

I think this is related to combinatorics in games such as poker, but I still don't understand this well enough to really grasp it and apply it to this problem.

Gods derive their power from post-hoc rationalizations. -The Inquisition

Using the supernatural to explain events in your life is a failure of the intellect to comprehend the world around you. -The Inquisition
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
29-07-2017, 10:28 PM
RE: Lottery/Set probability - Need help with a math problem
I had a guy who was a pretty successful card counter once tell me - that you would be far ahead figuring out how much you might play in a lifetime on lottery, take that amount, go to Vegas and put all but a few hundred on any number on the roulette wheel. If you win, let it all ride. Repeat three times....It's better odds than the lottery.

" What's the set aside money for"? I asked...

"You're in Vegas" he said. " You just lost a pile on the roulette wheel. You might as well spring for a blowjob".....



Tongue

.......................................

The difference between prayer and masturbation - is when a guy is through masturbating - he has something to show for his efforts.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 2 users Like onlinebiker's post
30-07-2017, 08:12 AM
RE: Lottery/Set probability - Need help with a math problem
(29-07-2017 06:22 PM)TheInquisition Wrote:  The odds are zero if I don't buy a ticket...

You'll also be $12.50 richer. Or $650 better off over a year.

BTW if you think you can meaningfully apply mathematics to a game of chance, then you're not thinking clearly.

Some interesting factoids:

• Odds of being a victim of an assault — 1 in 47 for men, 1 in 52 for women

• Odds of being audited by the IRS — 1 in 100

• Odds of dying in a car accident — 1 in 113

• Odds of dying from a firearm — 1 in 358

• Odds of dying in an airplane crash — 1 in 9,737

• Odds of going blind after laser eye surgery — 1 in 5 million

• Odds of getting attacked by a shark — 1 in 11.5 million

• Odds of winning $1 million in the McDonald’s Monopoly game — 1 in 513,591,720

Smartass

I'm a creationist... I believe that man created God.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 2 users Like SYZ's post
31-07-2017, 12:20 AM
RE: Lottery/Set probability - Need help with a math problem
I'll try and come back to this when my brain is in gear, but you'll almost certainly need to use conditional probability for your question I think. For two events A and B:

Probability(A happens given B has already happened) = Probability(A and B happen) / Probability(B happens)

To show how this works for a very simple example:

I pull a random card from a deck. My friend looks at it and tells me it's a heart. What is the probability it's a 3?

Prob(3 given heart) = Prob(3 and heart) / Prob(heart)

= (1/52) / (1/4) = 1/13

I have a website here which discusses the issues and terminology surrounding religion and atheism. It's hopefully user friendly to all.
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 1 user Likes Robvalue's post
31-07-2017, 12:57 AM
RE: Lottery/Set probability - Need help with a math problem
(30-07-2017 08:12 AM)SYZ Wrote:  • Odds of being a victim of an assault — 1 in 47 for men, 1 in 52 for women
Where're you getting these stats? Given that I've previously seen stats claiming as high as 1 in 4 women get *raped* globally... Here's some numbers for the US. Although I see Zimbabwe made the list for "Top 10 countries to get raped in" Confused

Quote:• Odds of getting attacked by a shark — 1 in 11.5 million
There's a conditional probability here. Most of us don't swim anywhere where sharks are. So the act of swimming might make the probability far higher...? Unless the stat is for people who're already swimming. I do know that shark attacks are incredibly infrequent, which is cold comfort to someone who's getting chomped.

We'll love you just the way you are
If you're perfect -- Alanis Morissette
(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 1 user Likes morondog's post
31-07-2017, 07:58 AM
RE: Lottery/Set probability - Need help with a math problem
(31-07-2017 12:57 AM)morondog Wrote:  
(30-07-2017 08:12 AM)SYZ Wrote:  • Odds of being a victim of an assault — 1 in 47 for men, 1 in 52 for women
Where're you getting these stats? Given that I've previously seen stats claiming as high as 1 in 4 women get *raped* globally...

I certainly agree that these kinds of "statistics" can vary from site to site—sometimes markedly from country to country too. I just picked those at random from half a dozen different US sites in order to make some sort of point.

In Australia in 2010, the reported rape rate per 100,000 people was 28.6 (versus 27.3 in the US in 2010) or one in 3,500. Even in the globally highest incidence of rape—in South Africa—the rate is "only" one in 755.
["Countries Compared by Crime > Rape rate. International Statistics at NationMaster.com", UN Crime Stats. Aggregates compiled by NationMaster.]

As Mark Twain famously wrote in his Chapters from My Autobiography, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

The rate of one in 4 women getting raped sounds totally ridiculous, even at first glance. I couldn't find even one legitimate statistic making that claim, although I did come across an article headed One in 4 Women: How the Latest Sexual Assault Statistics Were Turned into Click Bait by the ‘New York Times’ that showed this purported one in 4 women being sexually assaulted was grossly misrepresented—it even included kissing as a sexual "assault".

I'm a creationist... I believe that man created God.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
31-07-2017, 08:20 AM
RE: Lottery/Set probability - Need help with a math problem
(31-07-2017 07:58 AM)SYZ Wrote:  
(31-07-2017 12:57 AM)morondog Wrote:  Where're you getting these stats? Given that I've previously seen stats claiming as high as 1 in 4 women get *raped* globally...

I certainly agree that these kinds of "statistics" can vary from site to site—sometimes markedly from country to country too. I just picked those at random from half a dozen different US sites in order to make some sort of point.

In Australia in 2010, the reported rape rate per 100,000 people was 28.6 (versus 27.3 in the US in 2010) or one in 3,500. Even in the globally highest incidence of rape—in South Africa—the rate is "only" one in 755.
["Countries Compared by Crime > Rape rate. International Statistics at NationMaster.com", UN Crime Stats. Aggregates compiled by NationMaster.]

As Mark Twain famously wrote in his Chapters from My Autobiography, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

The rate of one in 4 women getting raped sounds totally ridiculous, even at first glance. I couldn't find even one legitimate statistic making that claim, although I did come across an article headed One in 4 Women: How the Latest Sexual Assault Statistics Were Turned into Click Bait by the ‘New York Times’ that showed this purported one in 4 women being sexually assaulted was grossly misrepresented—it even included kissing as a sexual "assault".

The link I provided cites its source as "Sources: U.S. Bureau of Justice , CDC, Koss, Gidycz & Wisniewski College Study, United Nations". The reported incidence of rape in the US is "Percent of women who experienced an attempted or completed rape 16 %", with the reported percentage rising to 20% on college campuses. I assume for the US data, since in the lines preceding they cite 89K rapes annually in the USA. Assuming 16% is accurate thats 16K per 100K. Rather more than your stats?

I think the difference though is due to the data for nationamaster being the *annual* rape rate, whereas the 20% and 16% figures I believe are for "chances of it happening during one's lifetime". The 89K rapes recorded in the USA match the UN data (used by nationmaster.com) for 2008.

We'll love you just the way you are
If you're perfect -- Alanis Morissette
(06-02-2014 03:47 PM)Momsurroundedbyboys Wrote:  And I'm giving myself a conclusion again from all the facepalming.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[+] 1 user Likes morondog's post
04-08-2017, 03:48 AM
RE: Lottery/Set probability - Need help with a math problem
I read somewhere that there is more chance of seeing Elvis riding the Loch Ness monster than there is of winning the lottery.

What do you mean Life is short. It's the longest thing you're going to do.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
04-08-2017, 04:01 AM
RE: Lottery/Set probability - Need help with a math problem
One "method" I've read involves going through all the previous results of the last twelve months, and using the most used/drawn numbers from over that time, with the idea being if these are the most drawn numbers, they have a higher chance of being drawn again. this also gives you a set of numbers to use, which you can re-evaluate later down the line

I've attempted it once, and got my numbers but never had a go with them lol. I always do "lucky dips" where you get random numbers each time.

One day I'll win.....most likely on my deathbed lol.

Having problems with your computer? Visit the Free Tech Support thread for help!
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
04-08-2017, 06:36 AM
RE: Lottery/Set probability - Need help with a math problem
(04-08-2017 03:48 AM)stevec Wrote:  I read somewhere that there is more chance of seeing Elvis riding the Loch Ness monster than there is of winning the lottery.

Probably even more chance of seeing Nessie riding Elvis....


Blink

.......................................

The difference between prayer and masturbation - is when a guy is through masturbating - he has something to show for his efforts.
Find all posts by this user
Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply
Forum Jump: