Lottery/Set probability  Need help with a math problem



29072017, 06:22 PM




Lottery/Set probability  Need help with a math problem
I picked three sets of numbers in a lottery, so the numbers would be five nonrepeating numbers from 1 to 47, and one hotball number 1 to 19.
Now I pick numbers for three different tickets or three different sets, the numbers in each of these sets are almost the same except for one number. So the numbers in the three tickets would be like this : 1st ticket 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Hotball 1 2nd ticket 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 Hotball 1 3rd ticket 1, 2, 3, 4, 7 Hotball 1 This is a 147 draw on the first five numbers, a 119 draw on the hotball number. So the odds are fairly straightforward, only one ticket can win the jackpot (5 numbers match and the hotball), the next prize requires 5 numbers with no hotball match, this is still straightforward looking at the odds charts. The 3rd level prize is where it gets complicated, it requires 4 numbers and a hotball match. So I bought these tickets with 4 of the same numbers and the same hotball number, let’s say I win this prize, what are the odds that my other two tickets will win? If the changing number at the end on my tickets (5,6,7) are the number that is mismatched out of my 5 numbers, then all 3 of my tickets will win. If one of the regular matching numbers are mismatched (1, 2, 3, 4) then only one ticket will win. So, the odds of 1 winning ticket for the 3rd level prize is 3 out of 138,785, but what are the odds for all three tickets winning based from the commonality between the sets? An addendum, if I win the jackpot, I will win the 3rd level prize on my other 2 tickets, without impacting my odds, the similar number set selection enables the other two tickets to win on the 3rd level and lower prizes. If I win the 3rd level prize, there’s a good chance at winning the 4th level prize and a 100% chance at winning the 5th level prize with the other two tickets. Yes, I know the odds are fantastic, but I enjoy trying to work out these problems and it provides me with entertainment. With 3 tickets, my odds are 3in29,144,841 to win the jackpot, 3in1,619,157 for the 2nd prize, 3in138,785 to win the 3rd prize. The odds are zero if I don't buy a ticket. Here is the odds table: I think this is related to combinatorics in games such as poker, but I still don't understand this well enough to really grasp it and apply it to this problem. Gods derive their power from posthoc rationalizations. The Inquisition Using the supernatural to explain events in your life is a failure of the intellect to comprehend the world around you. The Inquisition 

29072017, 10:28 PM




RE: Lottery/Set probability  Need help with a math problem
I had a guy who was a pretty successful card counter once tell me  that you would be far ahead figuring out how much you might play in a lifetime on lottery, take that amount, go to Vegas and put all but a few hundred on any number on the roulette wheel. If you win, let it all ride. Repeat three times....It's better odds than the lottery.
" What's the set aside money for"? I asked... "You're in Vegas" he said. " You just lost a pile on the roulette wheel. You might as well spring for a blowjob"..... .... I'm a double atheist. I don't believe in your god or your politician. 

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30072017, 08:12 AM




RE: Lottery/Set probability  Need help with a math problem
(29072017 06:22 PM)TheInquisition Wrote: The odds are zero if I don't buy a ticket... You'll also be $12.50 richer. Or $650 better off over a year. BTW if you think you can meaningfully apply mathematics to a game of chance, then you're not thinking clearly. Some interesting factoids: • Odds of being a victim of an assault — 1 in 47 for men, 1 in 52 for women • Odds of being audited by the IRS — 1 in 100 • Odds of dying in a car accident — 1 in 113 • Odds of dying from a firearm — 1 in 358 • Odds of dying in an airplane crash — 1 in 9,737 • Odds of going blind after laser eye surgery — 1 in 5 million • Odds of getting attacked by a shark — 1 in 11.5 million • Odds of winning $1 million in the McDonald’s Monopoly game — 1 in 513,591,720 I'm a creationist... I believe that man created God. 

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31072017, 12:20 AM




RE: Lottery/Set probability  Need help with a math problem
I'll try and come back to this when my brain is in gear, but you'll almost certainly need to use conditional probability for your question I think. For two events A and B:
Probability(A happens given B has already happened) = Probability(A and B happen) / Probability(B happens) To show how this works for a very simple example: I pull a random card from a deck. My friend looks at it and tells me it's a heart. What is the probability it's a 3? Prob(3 given heart) = Prob(3 and heart) / Prob(heart) = (1/52) / (1/4) = 1/13 I have a website here which discusses the issues and terminology surrounding religion and atheism. It's hopefully user friendly to all. 

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31072017, 12:57 AM




RE: Lottery/Set probability  Need help with a math problem
(30072017 08:12 AM)SYZ Wrote: • Odds of being a victim of an assault — 1 in 47 for men, 1 in 52 for womenWhere're you getting these stats? Given that I've previously seen stats claiming as high as 1 in 4 women get *raped* globally... Here's some numbers for the US. Although I see Zimbabwe made the list for "Top 10 countries to get raped in" Quote:• Odds of getting attacked by a shark — 1 in 11.5 millionThere's a conditional probability here. Most of us don't swim anywhere where sharks are. So the act of swimming might make the probability far higher...? Unless the stat is for people who're already swimming. I do know that shark attacks are incredibly infrequent, which is cold comfort to someone who's getting chomped. 

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31072017, 07:58 AM




RE: Lottery/Set probability  Need help with a math problem
(31072017 12:57 AM)morondog Wrote:(30072017 08:12 AM)SYZ Wrote: • Odds of being a victim of an assault — 1 in 47 for men, 1 in 52 for womenWhere're you getting these stats? Given that I've previously seen stats claiming as high as 1 in 4 women get *raped* globally... I certainly agree that these kinds of "statistics" can vary from site to site—sometimes markedly from country to country too. I just picked those at random from half a dozen different US sites in order to make some sort of point. In Australia in 2010, the reported rape rate per 100,000 people was 28.6 (versus 27.3 in the US in 2010) or one in 3,500. Even in the globally highest incidence of rape—in South Africa—the rate is "only" one in 755. ["Countries Compared by Crime > Rape rate. International Statistics at NationMaster.com", UN Crime Stats. Aggregates compiled by NationMaster.] As Mark Twain famously wrote in his Chapters from My Autobiography, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." The rate of one in 4 women getting raped sounds totally ridiculous, even at first glance. I couldn't find even one legitimate statistic making that claim, although I did come across an article headed One in 4 Women: How the Latest Sexual Assault Statistics Were Turned into Click Bait by the ‘New York Times’ that showed this purported one in 4 women being sexually assaulted was grossly misrepresented—it even included kissing as a sexual "assault". I'm a creationist... I believe that man created God. 

31072017, 08:20 AM




RE: Lottery/Set probability  Need help with a math problem
(31072017 07:58 AM)SYZ Wrote:(31072017 12:57 AM)morondog Wrote: Where're you getting these stats? Given that I've previously seen stats claiming as high as 1 in 4 women get *raped* globally... The link I provided cites its source as "Sources: U.S. Bureau of Justice , CDC, Koss, Gidycz & Wisniewski College Study, United Nations". The reported incidence of rape in the US is "Percent of women who experienced an attempted or completed rape 16 %", with the reported percentage rising to 20% on college campuses. I assume for the US data, since in the lines preceding they cite 89K rapes annually in the USA. Assuming 16% is accurate thats 16K per 100K. Rather more than your stats? I think the difference though is due to the data for nationamaster being the *annual* rape rate, whereas the 20% and 16% figures I believe are for "chances of it happening during one's lifetime". The 89K rapes recorded in the USA match the UN data (used by nationmaster.com) for 2008. 

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04082017, 03:48 AM




RE: Lottery/Set probability  Need help with a math problem
I read somewhere that there is more chance of seeing Elvis riding the Loch Ness monster than there is of winning the lottery.
What do you mean Life is short. It's the longest thing you're going to do. 

04082017, 04:01 AM




RE: Lottery/Set probability  Need help with a math problem
One "method" I've read involves going through all the previous results of the last twelve months, and using the most used/drawn numbers from over that time, with the idea being if these are the most drawn numbers, they have a higher chance of being drawn again. this also gives you a set of numbers to use, which you can reevaluate later down the line
I've attempted it once, and got my numbers but never had a go with them lol. I always do "lucky dips" where you get random numbers each time. One day I'll win.....most likely on my deathbed lol. "When you’re in a relationship, you’re in a band. Sometimes you sing lead and sometimes you’re on tambourine. And if you’re on tambourine, play it right. Play it with a fucking smile. ‘Cause nobody wants to see a mad tambourine player.”  Chris Rock 

04082017, 06:36 AM




RE: Lottery/Set probability  Need help with a math problem
(04082017 03:48 AM)stevec Wrote: I read somewhere that there is more chance of seeing Elvis riding the Loch Ness monster than there is of winning the lottery. Probably even more chance of seeing Nessie riding Elvis.... .... I'm a double atheist. I don't believe in your god or your politician. 

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