Lottery/Set probability - Need help with a math problem
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07-08-2017, 05:10 AM
RE: Lottery/Set probability - Need help with a math problem
(07-08-2017 01:18 AM)Robvalue Wrote:  This problem has been so interesting to me and has revitalised my love of mathematics! After having an embaressing dialogue with myself on this thread, I'm finally confident I have it right.

Yeah, I have puzzled over it for a while now, about the best I could come up with was 1/5 for a 3 ticket win assuming you had one winning ticket.

Thanks for your work on this Rob! Thumbsup I was flummoxed by it, I found it very difficult to frame the problem in terms of a useful equation to provide a solution. Though I had the sense that if you win on one ticket, you would have pretty good odds of winning on 3 of them.

Gods derive their power from post-hoc rationalizations. -The Inquisition

Using the supernatural to explain events in your life is a failure of the intellect to comprehend the world around you. -The Inquisition
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07-08-2017, 07:39 AM
RE: Lottery/Set probability - Need help with a math problem
You're welcome! I enjoyed it Smile

I was so certain at first that the answer was 1/5, it goes to show how important it is not to trust intuition in these matters.

Conditional probability is tricky, it's a matter of narrowing down the space to that which is still possible, and then working out what proportion of that gives you the answer you need. Since all the configurations of 5 numbers are equally likely, it becomes a matter of counting how many fit the criteria.

I have a website here which discusses the issues and terminology surrounding religion and atheism. It's hopefully user friendly to all.
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